Tag Archives: theory

Wise decisions

Posted on by

I read a mention over at SurvivalBlog that the Wise lawsuit has come to an end and Wise lost. (Some backstory and details) The gist of the lawsuit, as I understand it, is that Wise said their food would provide enough food for X number of people for Y number of days. Someone with a calculator and a knowledge of human dietary needs must have read the labels on the packaging because it was discovers that the whole X-days-for-Y-people thing only works out if those people are getting Bataan Death March portions and nutrition. Succinctly, on Wise’s schedule you would be getting less calories than many concentration camp prisoners.

What’s going to happen to Wise? Beats me. Maybe they’ll survive this, maybe not. What will be much more interesting is the repercussions throughout the industry. I guarantee you that the guys at Thrive and Mountain House are sitting down with their lawyers and nutritionists and double checking their packaging to make sure they are n’t setting themselves up for a similar problem.

Who got burned in this? Most likely the ‘casuals’. The not-really-survivalists who wanted to make one phone call, order one big pallet of food, and then say they were done with the food storage part of their plans. I’m all for turnkey solutions and one-stop-shopping, but having a backup plan for when the grocery store is empty is a serious enough task that perhaps a bit more homework is needed.Who can you trust? No one. So when ABC Food Co. says their package will feed three people for a month you should…do what? Correct answer: read the labels and do the math. Anyone with basic math skills and a modicum of intelligence would have realized that 450 calories a day is significantly less than the ‘2000 calorie per day’ mantra that’s been drummed into our head by government food label laws. Sure, 2000 calories is a one-size-fits-all approach that isn’t necessarily accurate, but it does at least give us something of a baseline.

Sitting in a bunker for three weeks waiting for the fallout levels to go down? Might get away with less calories. Snowshoeing to the lake to get water to haul back to your hidden cabin? A lot more calories, please. Even using the somewhat questionable 2000 calorie yardstick, you could see that some of these prepackaged kits were way, way down on calories.

I’m a huge fan of the long-term foods. I’ve got cases of pork chops, spaghetti, corn, apples, chicken, teriyaki, etc, etc. But those are part of a layered approach. I add up all the short-, mid-, and long-term food and thats the yardstick I use. And I use that 2000 calorie baseline as my minimum standard. I have absolutely no intention on subsisting exclusively on freeze-dried food made twenty years ago. I figure on using some of the expensive and exotic stuff (freeze dried meats) to complement the cheap and boring stuff (bulk packed rice and pasta) with the everyday stuff (canned vegetables, jarred sauces, etc.)

Im sure most of you guys are doing the same thing, right? On the one hand we have nitrogen-sealed #10 cans of Pasta Primavera and on the other we have #10 cans of wheat and dried onions from the LDS cannery.

 Moral of the story: avoiding starvation, and the desperate choices forced upon you by the threat of it, is too serious an issue to hand over to some marketing guys at a long term food company. Read the labels, do the math, make the spreadsheet, check other vendors, review other brands. It would be awesome if we really could make one phone call, write one check, and be done with it but that just ain’t gonna happen. Read the fine print, always.

Not Plan ‘A’

Trading stock

Posted on by

I was talking with someone today and they asked me about whether I stockpile things like cigarettes, booze, or coffee for bartering purposes.

I actually do not. The biggest reason, for me, is that I simply do not use any of those products. Whether its inventory for resale or items for my own personal stash, I never acquire anything in bulk that I cannot use for my own needs. To do otherwise would risk wasting resources on something I can’t use.

However, there are things that I keep a rather large quantity of that is so large it could double as a supply of barter goods if it had to. And, if I got stuck with them, theyre things I use anyway. Such as? Well, medical supplies spring to mind. Same for food, batteries, toilet paper, silver, some ammo and guns, clothing, fuel, etc.

Bartering assumes that there is something I need or want that I do not already have. After all, no one exposes themselves (and their goods) to the risk of some sort of post-apocalyptic marketplace if they don’t need to. Would you? Would anyone? Why advertise to the world that you not only have something but you have enough of it that you can actually use it for trade?

Of course, we can’t think of everything. And something may happen that forces your hand. Maybe floss weevils got into your dental floss stash and you’re completely out of the stuff eve though you had stockpiled cases of it. Things can happen.

For my interests, I figure the things I already use (and have) in large quantity will have plenty of value. Will there be people who would kill for a drink? Or a cigarette? Or coffee? Absolutely. And thats why some poeple stock up on that sort of stuff. But there’ll also be people who’d kill to have food for their kids. Or themselves. And since I already am a user of food, it makes sense have that on hand as trade fodder if I decide to have a reserve of some kind for trading.

I suppose it wouldn’t kill me to throw $20 on the counter at WalMart and grab a couple dozen single-serve packets of freeze dried coffee. Or a couple airplane-sized bottles of Jack Daniels. And I might do that. But, for me, it simply makes more sense to stockpile things I can use since a) if I can use it someone else can too and b) if i wind up keeping it then I only wind up improving my situation.

Let me put it another way: which makes more sense..buying $100 worth of an item that may have some barter value but has no use to you individually, or buying $100 worth of an item that may have some barter value AND can benefit your stockpile if you wind up keeping it. Hmm.

Anyway, your mileage may vary but, no, no hoard of cigarettes and Mad Dog in the bunker.

Link – Pistol Grip Only shotguns video

Posted on by

So those new pistol grip 12 ga. firearms (which, technically, are not shotguns) are kind of the rage these days. I first became aware of them when I saw one on Gunbroker. A little later, I saw that Mossberg was going to introduce them. And then finally I got to shoot one. My ardor was cooled a bit after shooting one.

Unless your plans include spending a lot of time in hallways and elevators, it seems that a shoulder stock would be a better option. Really, a ‘wrist brace’ on one of these 14″ wonders would be the way to go. But, surely at the usual 7-yard distance the advantage of a stock versus stockless shotgun isn’t that great right?

Well, Gun Jesus explores that with some really interesting results:


TL;DR is that unless you’re someone who practices a lot with your pistol-grip-only shotgun, you are going to get better (and faster) results with a stocked gun.

Personally, I keep an 18″ 870 laying around for repelling boarders, but thats only because I don’t want the paperwork hassle of a 14″ or 16″ barreled gun. If barrel length legalities weren’t a thing, a 14″ stocked gun would be my first choice for operating in the confines of my humble abode.

This isnt to say that there is not a situation where something like the Shockwave would be exactly what the doctor ordered. But nine times out of ten, you’d probably be better served with the stocked gun.

This mean I won’t get a Shockwave or two? Nope. Because I love ‘rulebeater’ stuff. And, like wrist braces, I suspect there’ll come a time in the not too far future where ATF will get serious and tinker with their regulations and rulings. (“They can’t make laws! They can only enforce them!” is what I can already hear people typing in the comments. Dude, they’ve already proven they can classify/declassify/reclassify whatever they want. No one wants to be the test case.)

So…the 18″ full-stocked gun remains on night duty. But, an interesting video to watch for those who think about the efficacy of new goodies like the Shockwave.

 

Linj – Do you have a magic “keep you safe” talisman?

Posted on by

From TUAK:

Neither do I. The older I get, the more I have to fight the urge to ridicule keyboard kommandos who think “prepping” is all about guns and gear and a case of MREs. I try to suppress the urge because I despise hypocrisy in all its forms and especially when I’m the hypocrite. And the truth is I was a proto-keyboard kommando: I was into “guns and gear” prepping long before keyboards – and preppers – became so ubiquitous. Yes! I was a faithful follower of Father Mel Tappan. I wore out my copy of Survival Guns in a way that would have made a Christian quite proud if it were his Bible. I was … a dumbass. And I kept it up for far longer than was wise.

Outstanding post and I suggest reading the whole thing more than once. My own impressions to follow.

Money v. Goods II

Posted on by

I had mentioned that next paycheck I was going to work an item or two off my proposed Go Heavy list. As it turns out, I woke to a mailbox with a paystub from a former employer paying me for…I have no idea what. I’m guessing a payroll error somewhere got caught in an audit and this is what happens. Regardless, it means that I can go ahead and start my little experiment.

The format is actually pretty simple. Whatever I buy a huge quantity of will be marked with the date, place of purchase, and price. At the end of the year, there are two possible outcomes (well, really an infinite number of possible outcomes, but liet’s not split metaphysical hairs…) – either I am out of the item, in which case that means the amount purchased was, in fact, not a years supply (QED), or there is some product left which indicates that I overestimated. At the end of the year I’ll see if the prices have changed and figure what that change was, and I’ll have my percentage (+/-) of what purchasing en masse at the beginning of the year saved me.

Of course, this doesn’t have to take place at the beginning of the year, it can take place whenever you want as long as you faithfully track 12-months from the starting point.

My list of items to store has actually gotten fairly long. Food, housewares, etc. Since some of the items on my list are actually on sale now at Albertsons, I’ll probably start with those and work from there. Should be interesting.

Money v. goods

Posted on by

I ran out of dish detergent yesterday night an thought “No big deal, I’ll trot downstairs and grab another jug of the stuff.” To my chagrin, that was the last one. Bad survivalist! Sure, the end of the world is not going to be made worse by a lack of dish soap, but it’s the principle of the thing: shoulda had it, didnt.

So, that got me to thinking that January (or, really, late December) should be my evaluation period for purchasing “a years supply” for the coming year. I’ve made a list of a few things I’m just going to go ‘heavy’ on and see if they do indeed last me the year. This should make for some interesting looks from the guys running the registers at CostCo when I pick up a dozen drums of detergent.

And as I said, the end of the world experience will not be greatly affected by a lack of dish soap. But a ‘localized’ end of the world..such as a job loss or similar, ‘personal’, disaster will be somewhat eased if I can reduce the number of things I have to buy until I”m back on my feet.

Think about it. Pretend you lost your job and its going to take you three months to get another paycheck coming into the household. Every dollar is going to count, right? So the less money you’re spending on toilet paper, paper towels, soap, food, clothes, etc, is more money you have to stretch for other necessities. This is why I try to keep as much long-term-storage-friendly consumables on hand as possible.

I have the storage space (mostly) to go deep on stuff like that, and even if the world doesn’t come to an end I’m still ahead, inflationwise. There is an opportunity cost, I suppose, to tying up that money when it could be doing other things. That brings up a much bigger quandary: cash or goods?

Let’s say I spend $100 on toilet paper to store for the year. Assuming inflation runs around 4%, that means it would take $104 to buy that same toilet paper at the end of the year. By buying it upfront, I ‘made’ 4% on my money. But what if I simply took the $100 and put it in an envelope in my desk? At the end of the year it only buys me $96 worth of toilet paper. BUT…it can also buy me a host of other goods, whereas if I had spent the $100 on TP all I’d have is TP. In other words, $100 worth of TP vs. $100 cash. $100 of TP is just TP…but $100 cash can become $100 of TP, food, fuel, ammo, shoes, etc. So, it might make more sense to store the cash, rather than the TP.

As I said, my buying power is reduced by inflation…Assume TP was $1 a roll, just for round numbers. $100 gets me 100 rolls in January, but in December it gets me 96. But if I invested that $100 at something that made more than 4%, that would mean I could buy at least 100 rolls in December. The stock market, yearly, returns upwards of 10% on average, right? So, in theory, I park $100 in January and in December I buy 110 rolls of TP.

But…risk, scarcity, and self-discipline come into play. The investments may go down and my $100 may get cut to $75. So..75 rolls of TP in December. Or scarcity may come into play..the TP crop could get TP weevils and the price shoots up. Now my $100 can only buy 50 rolls in December as the price doubled. Or inflation may go past 4%. And, finally, self-discipline – can I stare at $100 sitting on my desk for a year and not touch it? Mmmm…

And often the bird in the hand is worth the two in the bush, y’know?

So…goods. This isn’t to say I don’t keep money stored away. I just keep it where I can’t see it or get to it without a conscious, purposeful effort.

All this to say that next payday I’m going to pick one item off my list of ‘Go Heavy’ and stock up for the year. At the end of the year I’ll review if the amount purchased was indeed a years supply. That’ll give me a good metric of what a years supply constitutes around this house.

This mental exercise in frugality, preparedness, and cost/benefit has been brought to you buy writers block, an empty soap container, and un upcoming sense of dread.

Article – 4 Ways to Pressure-Test Strategic Decisions, Inspired by the U.S. Military

Posted on by

Strategy is a nice way to sum up “Have a plan, and a backup plan, and another backup plan, and make sure they work.”. This article basically tells you how and why to test those plans.

Every leader wants to avoid major strategic mistakes, but, in a complex world, it’s hard to anticipate all the forces that might impact your goal. It’s vital to find weaknesses in your strategies before you implement them — and developing a rigorous process to do so.

One of those ways to test things is also my favorite: wargame it. If you think youve got the perfect mix of gear in case you get stuck ten miles from home….go on that ten mile walk. That sorta thing.

 

Complacency and motivation

Posted on by

I’ve mentioned it before, but, man, that complacency thing….it’s tough to get past sometimes. You let your foot off the gas, you feel less of a sense of urgency, and then -wham- something happens that makes you wish you had stuck with things.

As I mentioned earlier, I’ve sort of shifted my preparedness efforts towards getting the finances squared away now that 90% of everything else is within an acceptable level of readiness. But that financial stuff…thats the hardest to keep on track with. I mean, when you’re working on your food storage you can see those shelves getting fuller and fuller, you can see the gun safe getting fuller and fuller, that sort of thing. But getting your financial preparedness taken care of? Numbers on paper. You don’t really feel it because there’s no real visual metric other than numbers on a statement.

Of course, just because you don’t feel your financial preps getting squared away like you do your physical ones…well…thats no excuse no to do it, right?

My motivation has been focusing on the opportunities that will be afforded to me once I get things like the house paid off. Thats a rather large chunk of money every month that can now go to…whatever I want it to. Silver? Gold? Ammo? Roth? Vehicle? Land? Savings? Six hours with Jennifer Lawrence?  Anything I want. But…to do that, I gotta get these stupid financial obligations taken care of.

The unsexy parts of survivalism suck, but they tend to be the most practical ones, it seems.

Direction

Posted on by

I was having a little exchange in email with someone and was describing how the direction of my own prepping (and I really hate that word..it sounds so cutesy and trendy) has changed as of late and why. Maybe it’s worth a post or two.

I’m fairly satisfied with where I’m sitting in terms of food, fuel, materiel, etc, etc. It’s not necessarily gilding the lily to continue on the current path, but this current economic clime is one that makes me think now is the optimal time to shift directions for me.

As I mentioned earlier, we’re in a somewhat better-than-usual economic period. Jobs and markets are at record numbers. I’m not going to say that money is out there falling from the sky, but for someone with a brain, work ethic, and ambition, now might be a good time to work on getting the financial side of preparedness buffed up…take the extra job, invest the extra cash, sell the unused items, etc.

What does the financial side of preparedness look like?  For the ‘casuals’ that may look like the classic six-month-emergency fund in the bank, pay off the credit cards, and beef up the Roth. For us lifestylers it may look like that plus cash in the safe, cash equivalents like gold and silver, trade goods, and other assets (like land).

I’m pretty sure I will be just fine if I don’t buy another gun, freezedried, or backpack for the next five years. And, as I’ve said over and over, the times in my life where I urgently needed money far outnumber the times in my life where I urgently needed a Barrett 82A1. Doesn’t mean that moment won’t happen, just saying that so far I’ve need $50 bills more than I’ve need .50 API.

Trying to avoid this

So, for the last few months I’ve cut back on my spending on things like storage food, ammo, guns (sorta), and the like, and have instead been moving more resources into savings, investments, cash, hard currency, and that sort of thing.

The economy is doing well at the moment but nothing lasts forever. If this good economy affords me the opportunity to get my ducks in a row for when it inevitably starts to decline…well, wouldn’t that be the smart thing to do?

So..for now, my focus is mostly on getting the money stuff squared away. If the zombies/war/Depression/invasion/flu/volcano/collapse occurs tomorrow I think I’ll be just fine with what I have on hand…but I don’t share that same level of confidence if some of the more mundane life disasters (transmission, broken leg, water heater, job loss, unexpected critical expense, etc.) occur. This change in direction will hopefully change that.

As I read that last paragraph it seem that could be interpreted as the direction of the blog changing, rather than personal direction. Nope…the blog will continue to strive to mediocrity with no change in its usual aimless topical wanderings. But personally, yeah, I think I’m going to be working on the really, really unsexy parts of preparedness. But…it’s gotta be done.

Piggy Goals.

Prepiquette

Posted on by

“I hold this to be the highest task of a bond between two people: that each should stand guard over the solitude of the other.”
— Rainer Maria Rilke

You’re a survivalist, Im a survivalist, we’re survivalists. And although we’re on the same page on a bunch of things, one of the things we really need to be on the same page about is privacy and not being offended when someone leaves you out of the loop, to a degree, to protect their privacy.

Example: I’d had some back-n-forth online with a fella for a while and we agreed to meet for lunch one day to talk about guns and generally get to hang out with like-minded individuals. As we wrapped it up and we were leaving the BBQ place, it turned out we were both walking in the same direction to our vehicles. And walking. And walking. And…walking. See, he didn’t want to get into his vehicle and have me know what he was driving (and, presumably, catching his license plate info) so he walked past his vehicle. And I walked past mine for the same reason. And…kept walking. We still laugh about that.

Unless you’ve been friends for years, try to be mindful of the other person’s privacy and desire to keep some things private:

  • Ask what they like to shoot, don’t ask how many guns they have
  • Don’t ask where they live (or work), although you can ask what they do for work
  • If someone politely declines to answer your question, or tactfully evades a question, recognize that they are very politely trying to tell you it’s none of your business…accept it gracefully and move on.
  • Do not ask if they know so-and-so or if they are related to someone
  • Let them be as vague as they want to be
  • Don’t follow them to their vehicle as you leave
  • If you are joined by a friend/relative of theirs, assume that those people are ‘outside the loop’ in regards to what you’ve been discussing. If you’ve spent a half hour talking to your new friend Steve about his $10,000 Barret 82A1 and his wife sits down to join you, do NOT say to her “Steve here was just telling me how much he enjoys his Barrett” because the last thing you want is her saying “What Barrett? You told me you weren’t going to buy that thing!” Don’t be that guy.
  • Never ask for someone’s contact information, instead offer yours and if they want to give you their info they will reciprocate.
  • Don’t overshare. It makes the other person uncomfortable and puts them in the awkward position of feeling like they aren’t being equally forthcoming.
  • Don’t name drop.

Obviously, if you’ve known someone for years to the point you’ve had then to your house, then it’s obviously a different story. These suggested guidelines are for new people you meet.

And for Crom’s sake, don’t overshare. It’s better to hold back too much info about yourself than it is to go dig a six-foot hole in the National Forest because you told someone too much too soon. (See, ya gotta have that hole already dug…cause if you don’t, you could be digging it and someone comes along and sees what you’re doing. Now you gotta dig two holes. You could be out there all night!)