Tam (aka ‘Our Lady Of Snark’),  has a post about how the Current Situation has us swimming in stress hormones and that regardless of whether the stress is from being chased by a lion or having to queue for TP at CostCo, the physiological and mental results are the same.

No doubt, there are stressors aplenty in the wind these days. How do you avoid stress? Remove (or mitigate) the situation that you are stressing over. Do I stress about getting eaten by a T. Rex? No, because there ain’t no T. Rex anymo’. So if I want to not stress over, say, a toilet paper shortage the solution is…have plenty of toilet paper.

I’ve touched on this in an earlier post.

The solution is simple, it just isn’t easy – remove the source of stress.

Every year I stress about my property taxes. I worry that I won’t have the money to pay them and that I’ll lose my house. What eliminates that stress? Paying the taxes (or having the money to do so). So every month I force myself to set aside 1/12th of my property taxes and once a year I pay them for the upcoming year. And the stress disappears (for that year). I don’t worry about getting eaten by that T. Rex because, for that year, the T. Rex doesn’t exist anymore.

Realistically, virtually any single thing you are stressing about can be resolved with enough money..housing, food, health, security, etc….all fixable with enough greenbacks. But, addressing the issue directly is often the best choice… worried about going hungry? Stockpile food. Worried about not being able to make your car payment? Pay off the car or downsize it. Worried about your neighborhood being unsafe? Move or change the character of the neighborhood. Etc, etc.

I hate to use this word, but the secret to avoiding stress is…..control. If you can exert control, of almost any degree, over the situation then your stress is reduced. Sure there are situations you can’t completely control but you can exert some control. I can’t control if I’m going to suddenly have a debilitating stroke..but I can exert some control by eating well, watching my health, etc, etc. I can’t control the goobers in Washington in regards to guns, but I can exert some control by having my mag and gun needs met before they can start their shenanigans. I can’t control what 2021 is going to be like but I can control my supply of food, money, fuel, resources, information and all the things I need to mitigate 2021’s sting.. and that modicum of control reduces any stress I may have.

Probably the best example is my water heater. Years ago, I was informed there was a puddle under my water heater. A prior version of myself would have suddenly had the whole day go dark, and I’d have spent the next few days brooding and being upset wondering where the heck the money was going to come from for this repair and why was my life so crappy that I can’t even get the water heater fixed and..and…and…you get the idea. But, no, it was simply a shrug, “that sucks”, and write a check to the plumber off the emergency fund. No muss, no fuss, no stress. In this particular case, having money was what gave me the control over the situation and eliminated the stress.

Personally, I have not stressed about 2020 (or 2021) enough, in my opinion, to be experiencing negative physiological reactions. Or maybe I am and I’m not noticing it. But I don’t think I am. Why? Because I try to control what I can, and for those things I can’t control I prepare against. Between control of a situation, and being prepared against if the situation arises, any stresses I have are pretty manageable.

Of course…this only works if I’ve foreseen all likely outcomes. As I read on the interwebs, 2020 was the equivalent of stepping up to a crosswalk, waiting for the light, looking carefully both ways before crossing, stepping off the curb….and getting hit by a submarine. Didn’t quite see that one coming. But…by and large….yeah, not stressing.

The low hanging fruit of the blogging world is the reviewing the previous year and speculating on the upcoming year. Not being proud, here we go….

2020. Holy Drokk, where to start? From a survivalist standpoint is was a fairly validating year. I didn’t wind up needing to use any of the stored food or supplies. Even toilet paper needs were met handily just by the ‘on hand’ supply that exists outside of the stored stuff. But, the situation did give me the impetus to double-down on a lot of stuff. Most notably, the Preponomicon was thoroughly examined, revised, reviewed, and adhered to. While I was doing quite well on most things, I took this time to really polish off a few glaring weak spots and beef up what I already had.

Gunwise, it was a freakin’ Mardi Gras. If I told you what I spent on guns and magazines this year you would be aghast. But…I did what I believed was necessary for the continued safety and security of my future self. So..I regret nothing.

Financially, there was a little bit of a hiccup in March when things really hit the fan in terms of the Wuhan Flu becoming A Big Deal. I had to dip into cash reserves a tiny bit but then the income stream resumed it’s normal flow and I made up for it. In fact, 2020, despite my outrageous purchases, turned out to be a good year in terms of making progress on finances.

There were, of course, some down moments. Most notably the election. Because I had my doubts about a Trump re-election, I decided early in the year to get a start on going heavy on Uncertain Goods. Unfortunately, I was not the only one and between political maneuvering, race riots, a pandemic, and gasping economy, there were plenty of moments where things I wanted were either unavailable or grossly overpriced. However, I managed to get it all done with a bit of time to spare. Yay me.

All in all, 2020 was actually…and I hate to say this because it makes me sound like a colossal jerk…a really good year for me. I got a lot done, hit a bunch of goals, had virtually no hit to my income or finances, and pretty much skated through a year that left a lot of people crashed and burning by the side of the road. And…it wasn’t luck. By living below my means, getting the house paid off, not carrying debt, having multiple income streams, and keeping a cautious eye open for opportunities, 2020 wound up being, on paper, a good year for me.

What’s my prediction for 2021?  The likeliest thing I see happening is economic uncertainty. Keep in mind, I say “uncertainty” but that doesn’t indicate good or bad. There could be an economic revival of sorts as the ‘dead wood’ is swept aside as businesses that were long past tenable finally disappear, leaving behind smaller, more agile, better run businesses to take up the slack. The void left by businesses closing is an opportunity for new businesses. The forced acceleration of the inevitable switch to more ‘telecommuting’ or ‘remote’ jobs may open avenues for people who have wanted to work for East/West coast companies but never wanted to leave Kansas. So, there is a perspective that says 2021 might be a good year.

But, then theres the other side of the argument….businesses close or reduce their workforce, long-term leases for business space dry up creating commercial real estate ghost towns, unemployment increases, .gov starts printing money for benefits, state and local .gov get carried away with their newfound powers in the name of ‘the public health’, the Trump tax changes get repealed, we all lumber through a prolonged recession….that sort of thing. Telecommuting means a broader pool of competitors for a job opening, possibly even outsourcing. A larger pool of candidates means employers can offer less compensation and be reasonably sure someone, somewhere, will take it. Could go either way. So….yeah, changes ahead….and those changes could swing in either direction.

And that doesn’t even touch on whether or not the new administration (or whoever is pulling their strings) finally gets around to the old chestnut of ‘reasonable gun control’ that has become a rallying cry for the left.

Personally, I think 2021 will be a year that is full of the consequences of 2020. I think the economic impact of the everything that happened in 2020 will ‘come home to roost’ in 2021. My personal plans for 2021 include reducing expenditures and maximizing income as much as possible, spreading my assets out into various forms…cash, savings, metals, etc., working on some sideline gigs that will generate some cash fairly consistently so there’s always something coming in, and overall just working on increasing my resilience against whatever is coming.

“I can’t wait for 2020 to be over!” is something I keep hearing over and over. To me, it’s like hearing people boarding the Titanic saying “I can’t wait for this ship to pull away from the dock and get under way!”

Why does anyone think that 2021 is going to be an improvement over 2020? I mean, think about it a minute….all the negative things that occurred in 2020? The consequences of those events will carry into or appear in 2021. 2021 is going to be full of unplanned, unintended, and unanticipated consequences of things that happened in 2020.

Lemme give you an example – Wuhan Flu erupts and Joe the waiter gets his hours cut or his job ‘temporarily’ eliminated. Ok, we can foresee that. And then Joe can’t pay his rent, but have no fear…government puts a moratorium on evictions. Joe is safe. But there’s further downstream consequences…Sally, the retired schoolteacher who owns the rental property that Joe is not paying rent on, counts on that rental income every month to supplement her small pension. And pay the property taxes on that rental. And the insurance. And now that Joe has a gov-issued free pass to squat there, Sally has to choose between eating and paying property taxes to avoid losing her rental property. Unintended consequences.

I think 2021 is going to be full of downstream consequences like that. People only look one or two, maybe three, steps downstream at what the consequences of some of these things will be. Look further and you’ll see that it takes time for the affects of those things to occur…and when will those affects finally start bubbling to the surface? 2021.

The original proverb goes something like this;

For want of a nail a horseshoe was lost,
for want of a horseshoe a horse went lame,
for want of a horse a rider never got through,
for want of a rider a message never arrived,
for want of a message an army was never sent,
for want of an army a battle was lost,
for want of a battle a war was lost,
for want of a war a kingdom fell,
and all for want of a nail.

The guy putting shoes on the horse probably never thinks that if he does his job incorrectly the kingdom will fall into ruin, after all its just a nail in a horseshoe. But…its an excellent example of how not thinking about the far reaching consequences of an action come back to bite you on the ass.

My point is: there is no, and I mean NO, indication that 2021 is going to be a welcome relief from 2020. Even with a vaccine, the damage that has been done socially, economically, politically, ideologically, and emotionally is already in play. Like an earthquake in the middle of the ocean, the tsunami has already started to head towards land. The fact that it doesnt strike right away doesn’t change the fact that it has already started. Same thing.

More worrisome are the people who think that once the calendar rolls over to 2021…whew!..we’re safe. These are the people who will be caught empty pantry, empty bank account, empty magazines, empty life when 2021 doubles down on the crap that 2020 started.

But…I could be wrong. Maybe everyone gets the vaccine, infection rates drop, businesses (the ones that survived) roar back and boundless opportunities present themselves. Might happen. But I’d rather prepare for the other alternative and be proven wrong, than not prepare because I believe in the rosy future and wind up shoplifting steaks to survive.

Guns are a big part of my life… they make me money, they keep me safe, they encourage a particular set of values and lifestyle….but sometimes it gets difficult to remember that  there are other aspects of preparedness that may actually be more paramount.

Between the Wuhan Flu, the repercussions of that flu on the economy, the ‘reset’ that we are seeing as jobs that were formerly secure suddenly become insecure, and of course the economic uncertainty of the upcoming administration, it is not unreasonable to think that perhaps stocking greenbacks may be a bit more prudent than stocking green tip.

There is, literally, no such thing as a secure job. Even if you work for yourself, own the building, and have no competition, you’re job is not secure. Literally anything can happen…..crazy legislation, an earthquake, a divorce, a heart attack, a fire, a war…..there is no shortage of things, black swan and otherwise, that can yank your employment rug out from under you. Certainly, some jobs are more secure than others…but the notion that “oh, I’ll always have a job..there’s always a need for [occupation] so I’ll always be employed” doesn’t take into account those curve balls. There’s always going to be a need for paramedics…so your job is secure. Right up until you get in an accident and lose a leg or your sight. The point is, while you can have a certain amount of security at your job you never, ever, ever have 100% security. So…be ready.

I spent a huge(!) amount of money on materiel in 2020 and, for the most part, I’m done. Oh, if a nice AR crosses my path for a bargain price, or a case of .223 turns up at pre-flu prices I’ll take it. But now it’s time to start resources into improving resiliency. And nothing improves your resiliency in the pre-apocalypse like cash.

My record of forecasting the future has been less-than-great. But…I foresee economic turmoil ahead. I see higher unemployment as flu-related impacts to business cause layoffs. I see jobs going away and not coming back (at least, not in the way they used to be). I see higher taxes on the folks who still have jobs. And I don’t see that changing in the near-term. Oh sure, there’ll be an bit of an economic bounce when we declare victory in The War On Chinese Flu but it’ll be a short-lived bounce.

If someone asked me what to do to increase resilience for 2021 I’d say “Wargame a scenario where you lose your job and can’t find another one at all or at the same wage and prepare for that”. That means clear debts as quick as you can, and start holding cash. Sure, you’ll lose some to inflation but I don’t see a Wewimar-esque hyperinflation coming yet. If you want to hedge your bets, split it among cash and metals. Here’s what I wold not do: I would not buy big ticket items just because I can, I would not buy anything on credit, I would not plan any expensive vacations, and I would not plan on having kids (because do you really want to take the hit of three months without a paycheck  and have the added medical expenses and the additional stresses all at a time when things are so uncertain?)

When you come home, shoulders slumped and your mind racing, wondering how youre going to meet the mortgage now that your boss has said that your job is over in two weeks, will that new 4k television you bought last week seem like a good idea or would you rather have had that money in our account right then?

So, for me, it’s time to quietly make sure the decks are clear and start gathering up all the resources I can. I’m fortunate in that my house is paid off, and I used some of the windfall from gun sales to pay all the taxes for the next year. In a worst case scenario all I have to pay for is utilities and food. Right now money that would otherwise go to things like mortgage payments is freed up to go elsewhere. I suspect 2021 will be similar to 2020 in many ways, but I think it’ll also have some new torments to go with it. I want to be as resilient as I can be against that future. That means checking off the gun stuff from my list and moving on to beefing up the financial resilience. Might want to examine your own situation and see how youd fare if you got that pink slip tomorrow.

I was talking to someone the other day and they mentioned that their wife, who had been ‘on board’ with his interest in preparedness has, as of late, become more approving of his interest. I told him that he was not the first person to experience this lately. I know several people whose wives tolerated their interest in preparedness as a sort of ‘quirky guy thing’ and have suddenly discovered that they rather appreciate the increased feeling of security it provides.

But, any situation threatening enough to make an on-the-fence/humouring spouse suddenly a believer is also threatening enough that the old “I’ll just come to your place in case anything happens” scenario a bit more dangerous.

This is brought to mind by a dream I had the other night. I dreamt that there was a Mount St Helens type of explosion off on the horizon and my neighbors and I stood on the street and watched half a mountain disappear. Then we watched it re-appear as Volkswagen-size chunks of earth came crashing down around us, destroying homes, cars, power lines, etc. In the dream, I told me neighbor not to worry and to follow me into my basement. The were, naturally, impressed. And I thought “This may have been a bad idea.” Then I woke up.

The message? In calmer times it’s a good idea to obey the first rule of Prep Club. In times of…excitement…it is even more vital. The classic scenario is that the world comes to an end and everyone tries to get into your bomb shelter. But things don’t have to reach that level for secrecy to be your friend. Even without bombs dropping or the dead roaming the land, you still have a ton of resources tied up in ammo, guns, radios, gold, and a dozen other things that your garden-variety burglar or thief is interested in. So, yeah, the first rule of Prep Club is that you don’t talk about Prep Club. (Which is ironic since I am, at the moment, talking about Prep Club.)

I suppose that’s one of my biggest gripes about ‘survival groups’ or ‘mutual aid’ groups. You’re trusting people whom you otherwise might not even spend time with ‘in real life’ with information and location about very valuable things you have. Personally, I find it hard to hand out that level of trust. This is why, in my opinion, the best ‘survival groups’ are very small and have a common social denominator that is extremely intimate. Family, for example, is probably the most intimate social group you can have. And even then, we all have that Aunt Jane or Cousin Joe who we would probably not trust with that sort of information. So if something as closely knit as a family has members who you’d not want ‘in your inner circle’, imagine what it’d be like when you start looking outside that family group. All relationships are transitory. The people you trusted with the GPS coords to your stash buried in the National Forest may, for whatever reason, wind up no longer being part of your circle. And when they depart, they take that information with them and you wind up having to change locks and rebury caches.

On the other hand, you could play it close to the vest and your family may not even know about all the things you’ve put away for them. And you get caught away from home (or worse, killed in the crisis) and they have no idea that their salvation was hidden in the basement behind the grandma’s old furniture or sitting in the rafters of the garage.

It’s definitely interesting times that we are living in. And it is reasonably possible that some aspects of the preparations we have made (almost certainly the financial ones, at least) will wind up coming in handy and getting put to use. It’s because of this increased likelihood, and the increased awareness (and desperation) of others, that keeping information about our personal WalMart we’ve created in the basement should stay under our tinfoil hat.

Ben Franklin said that ‘three can keep a secret if two of them are dead’. I wouldn’t go quite that far but, in todays heightened environment, I definitely do keep a pretty tight hand on who I let in my house and who I talk about this sorta stuff with.

Another day in the happy little melting pot that is America. I recall reading Chittum’s “Civil War II The Coming Breakup of America” years and years ago where he predicted that a Balkanization would take place in the US along racial lines. I’m not sure I see that, although you could argue it has already happened de facto. I could see more of a political Balkanization but, in retrospect, we kind of already have that now don’t we? Look at those colored election maps that come out every four years and the same predictable areas are the same predictable colors. *

By accident or design, I managed to land in a place that pretty much aligns with my own ideals (or, perhaps, I landed here and it re-aligned my ideals to suit it). I don’t necessarily fit in with 100% of the prevailing beliefs here (I’m more of a Goldwater conservative rather than the classic conservative) but, thus far, one of the prevailing beliefs here is that as long as youre not screwing around with your neighbor’s stuff you can pretty much believe whatever the heck you want. That works for me.

So although the social issues seem to be getting to the fore these days, I’m still focused on the economic. And, really, these social issues are going to impact the economic numbers just as hard as the superflu. Whether a business is shut down for Covid or BLM it’s still a business making no money and not paying it’s bills. The bottom line is still the same: economic loss.

Since my apocalypse du jour is economic, I tend to lean towards the stockpile “food and cash-like instruments” end of the spectrum. Sure, there’s ammo in there as well but I’m planning for Great Depression II: The Next Generation, not Civil War II: Electric Boogaloo. Although, honestly, the only difference between preparing for one instead of the other is quantity.

And, not to beat a deceased equine, my experience has been that there’s going to be a lot of small, personal, intimate EOTWAWKI’s in your life (job loss, car problems, health scares, housing issues, loved ones in trouble, etc.) before the Big One and nine times out of ten money turns out to be the duct tape that puts your life back together. So…no debt, wad of cash. For whatever that doesnt fix we have our other preps.

I suppose if you live in a major urban population center, or a state that is home to several of them, your concerns are probably (and justifiably) more centered around the …social disturbances…going on at the moment. By all means, keep a wary eye on the crowds and don’t stray far from your favorite thundertoy….but don’t forget that race riots and firebombers occur far, far, far less frequently than pink slips, busted transmissions, sick dogs, and broken water heaters.

Statistically, this is going to happen more times in your life than a zombie apocalypse.

Prepare for the day the Antifa crowd in their black sweatshirts are marching down the street swinging pieces of pipe. It’ll happen at some point, I’m sure. But don’t get so caught up in the possibility of it happening that you ignore the higher probability of those small EOTWWAWKI’s.

* = Chittum is viewed, by many, as a racist. But whether he is or not, doesn’t change the validity (or invalidity) of his predictions. If a racist tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming, the fact he is a racist (or a communist, or a Muslim, or a homosexual, or a Democrat) does not change the objective fact that, indeed, a train is coming and you need to get your butt off the tracks.