Tag Archives: theory

Back to the regularly scheduled buying

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No one was even hinting at banning rice, pasta, drink mix, frozen meat, or canned vegetables. But…they were talking about banning ‘assault weapons’ and ‘high capacity’ magazines. As a result, it made logical sense to focus on the acquisition of things that may not be obtainable if I waited. So, now that thats out of the way and the mags are resting in their new olive-drab steel homes, it’s time to reshift my focus back to where it was earlier – increasing resilience against the upcoming economic issues that seem to loom for 2021.

For me, that resilience-building is exactly three things: resources (money/metals) laid back, more food and necessary tangible goods, and alternate sources of income.

Once in a while someone asks if I’m really stockpiling food because I’m worried about some sort of shortage or famine. No, I’m not. I think that, by and large, it’s virtually impossible to starve in this country as a result of economic factors. I store food (and other things like TP, cleaning supplies, socks, soap, cooking oil, etc.) because if my life hits a hiccup where I suffer an income loss I’ll be able to use whatever income remains wisely since I won’t need to spend it on those goods. Coincidentally, those goods also come in handy if something Very Bad does, in fact, happen.

I’ve no idea what 2021 holds, but even if the Wuhan Flu thing gets under control, there are sill some major paradigm shifts that are going to have consequences. Probably the biggest is the ‘work from home’ model that we have moved into. For decades we have been told that with the advent of he internet we will all be telecommuting and that we will be able to work form home. It never happened on a big scale because there was little motivation for it to happen. It would have happened eventually, but the flu has forced that change to come much earlier. And now businesses are realizing that employees either weren’t 100% necessary, or they are realizing that if employees work remotely then they can hire cheaper employees from across the nation or across the world for the same results and less money. As a result, I see the jobs market changing radically. No longer are you competing with other job hunters in your region, you are now competing with job hunters from across the nation (and world). And with that kind of competition, the wages can be lower because someone will always be willing to work for less. So, to my way of thinking, while there never was a such thing as a ‘steady job’ there is now even less stability in a job. Physical jobs will be mostly unaffected…the guys on the garbage truck, the guys changing your oil, the fella delivering packages…they’ll be okay. But accountants, salespeople, consultants, the white collar stuff….thats going to be different. And since I can’t see how that’s going to shake out, I err on the side of caution and try to be ready.

So I’m finished with the ‘ban stuff’ stockpiling (unless something comes along at a screaming deal) and getting back to the basics – update the preponomicon and start continue increasing resilience.

 

For the want of a nail 2021 was lost

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“I can’t wait for 2020 to be over!” is something I keep hearing over and over. To me, it’s like hearing people boarding the Titanic saying “I can’t wait for this ship to pull away from the dock and get under way!”

Why does anyone think that 2021 is going to be an improvement over 2020? I mean, think about it a minute….all the negative things that occurred in 2020? The consequences of those events will carry into or appear in 2021. 2021 is going to be full of unplanned, unintended, and unanticipated consequences of things that happened in 2020.

Lemme give you an example – Wuhan Flu erupts and Joe the waiter gets his hours cut or his job ‘temporarily’ eliminated. Ok, we can foresee that. And then Joe can’t pay his rent, but have no fear…government puts a moratorium on evictions. Joe is safe. But there’s further downstream consequences…Sally, the retired schoolteacher who owns the rental property that Joe is not paying rent on, counts on that rental income every month to supplement her small pension. And pay the property taxes on that rental. And the insurance. And now that Joe has a gov-issued free pass to squat there, Sally has to choose between eating and paying property taxes to avoid losing her rental property. Unintended consequences.

I think 2021 is going to be full of downstream consequences like that. People only look one or two, maybe three, steps downstream at what the consequences of some of these things will be. Look further and you’ll see that it takes time for the affects of those things to occur…and when will those affects finally start bubbling to the surface? 2021.

The original proverb goes something like this;

For want of a nail a horseshoe was lost,
for want of a horseshoe a horse went lame,
for want of a horse a rider never got through,
for want of a rider a message never arrived,
for want of a message an army was never sent,
for want of an army a battle was lost,
for want of a battle a war was lost,
for want of a war a kingdom fell,
and all for want of a nail.

The guy putting shoes on the horse probably never thinks that if he does his job incorrectly the kingdom will fall into ruin, after all its just a nail in a horseshoe. But…its an excellent example of how not thinking about the far reaching consequences of an action come back to bite you on the ass.

My point is: there is no, and I mean NO, indication that 2021 is going to be a welcome relief from 2020. Even with a vaccine, the damage that has been done socially, economically, politically, ideologically, and emotionally is already in play. Like an earthquake in the middle of the ocean, the tsunami has already started to head towards land. The fact that it doesnt strike right away doesn’t change the fact that it has already started. Same thing.

More worrisome are the people who think that once the calendar rolls over to 2021…whew!..we’re safe. These are the people who will be caught empty pantry, empty bank account, empty magazines, empty life when 2021 doubles down on the crap that 2020 started.

But…I could be wrong. Maybe everyone gets the vaccine, infection rates drop, businesses (the ones that survived) roar back and boundless opportunities present themselves. Might happen. But I’d rather prepare for the other alternative and be proven wrong, than not prepare because I believe in the rosy future and wind up shoplifting steaks to survive.

 

Focus

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Guns are a big part of my life… they make me money, they keep me safe, they encourage a particular set of values and lifestyle….but sometimes it gets difficult to remember that  there are other aspects of preparedness that may actually be more paramount.

Between the Wuhan Flu, the repercussions of that flu on the economy, the ‘reset’ that we are seeing as jobs that were formerly secure suddenly become insecure, and of course the economic uncertainty of the upcoming administration, it is not unreasonable to think that perhaps stocking greenbacks may be a bit more prudent than stocking green tip.

There is, literally, no such thing as a secure job. Even if you work for yourself, own the building, and have no competition, you’re job is not secure. Literally anything can happen…..crazy legislation, an earthquake, a divorce, a heart attack, a fire, a war…..there is no shortage of things, black swan and otherwise, that can yank your employment rug out from under you. Certainly, some jobs are more secure than others…but the notion that “oh, I’ll always have a job..there’s always a need for [occupation] so I’ll always be employed” doesn’t take into account those curve balls. There’s always going to be a need for paramedics…so your job is secure. Right up until you get in an accident and lose a leg or your sight. The point is, while you can have a certain amount of security at your job you never, ever, ever have 100% security. So…be ready.

I spent a huge(!) amount of money on materiel in 2020 and, for the most part, I’m done. Oh, if a nice AR crosses my path for a bargain price, or a case of .223 turns up at pre-flu prices I’ll take it. But now it’s time to start resources into improving resiliency. And nothing improves your resiliency in the pre-apocalypse like cash.

My record of forecasting the future has been less-than-great. But…I foresee economic turmoil ahead. I see higher unemployment as flu-related impacts to business cause layoffs. I see jobs going away and not coming back (at least, not in the way they used to be). I see higher taxes on the folks who still have jobs. And I don’t see that changing in the near-term. Oh sure, there’ll be an bit of an economic bounce when we declare victory in The War On Chinese Flu but it’ll be a short-lived bounce.

If someone asked me what to do to increase resilience for 2021 I’d say “Wargame a scenario where you lose your job and can’t find another one at all or at the same wage and prepare for that”. That means clear debts as quick as you can, and start holding cash. Sure, you’ll lose some to inflation but I don’t see a Wewimar-esque hyperinflation coming yet. If you want to hedge your bets, split it among cash and metals. Here’s what I wold not do: I would not buy big ticket items just because I can, I would not buy anything on credit, I would not plan any expensive vacations, and I would not plan on having kids (because do you really want to take the hit of three months without a paycheck  and have the added medical expenses and the additional stresses all at a time when things are so uncertain?)

When you come home, shoulders slumped and your mind racing, wondering how youre going to meet the mortgage now that your boss has said that your job is over in two weeks, will that new 4k television you bought last week seem like a good idea or would you rather have had that money in our account right then?

So, for me, it’s time to quietly make sure the decks are clear and start gathering up all the resources I can. I’m fortunate in that my house is paid off, and I used some of the windfall from gun sales to pay all the taxes for the next year. In a worst case scenario all I have to pay for is utilities and food. Right now money that would otherwise go to things like mortgage payments is freed up to go elsewhere. I suspect 2021 will be similar to 2020 in many ways, but I think it’ll also have some new torments to go with it. I want to be as resilient as I can be against that future. That means checking off the gun stuff from my list and moving on to beefing up the financial resilience. Might want to examine your own situation and see how youd fare if you got that pink slip tomorrow.

 

Lego guns

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Someone asked me in email about gunsmithing/armorer courses. I thought about it a minute and realized that, for me, while I know enough to (usually) get a gun apart, back together, and diagnose problems, I try to avoid the issue altogether by selecting guns that don’t usually require ‘gunsmithing’.

If the end of the world happens to occur, the odds are pretty good that taking your malfunctioning thundertoy to the services of a competent gunsmith will not be an option. So, whats a survivalist to do? Well, the most obvious thing is – don’t break your gun. Some guns are more prone to breakage than others. But since we can’t always be confident our gun won’t break, the next reasonable step is to have a gun that, if it does break, does not require gunsmithing but rather a simple parts swap. For that, two guns spring to mind – the typical survivalist pairing of a Glock and an AR. (Yes, an AK wins on durability, but when it does break youre going to need a welder, rivets, a mill, or other specialized treatments.)

Starting with the AR, it’s hard to think of any other semiautomatic non-pistol-caliber carbine that doesn’t require the services of a full-service gunsmith to tweak, maintain, or repair (note I am not talking about making a match-grade target AR..I’m talking about just a rack-grade hand-it-to-a-grunt level of AR.). FAL, G3, AK, whatever…most of the common ‘battle rifles/carbines’ require some degree of professional skill to swap a barrel, or fit internal parts that need replacing. The AR is pretty much plug-n-play. I suppose the metric to be used is ‘can I repair this without needing a lathe or a milling machine’? Bad barrel on the AR? Swap the upper or change out the barrel. Broken sear or somesuch? Trigger group parts drop in. There seems to be, in my experience, very little, if anything, that requires hand-fitting or machining to be done to keep, or return, an AR to functionality.

Even more so with the Glock. If you’re building some type of uber Glock for competition, maybe theres things you want to polish or hand-fit. But for running around during a crisis I don’t believe theres a single part on the Glock that wont just drop in and function. To be fair, virtually every modern polymer gun is like that, though. Glock seems to have gotten it right first, though. The antithesis of this would be the 1911 which, with modern machining specs, has improved in terms of drop-in parts but I would bet you money that you could take a stripped frame, order a buttload of Wilson parts from Brownells, put it all together, and it won’t run because something, somewhere needs a bit of stoning or metalwork. Not so with the Glock.

Typical Glock repair kit

Typical 1911 repair kit

So, for me, my need for learning advanced gunsmithing skills is obviated a bit by selecting guns that, broadly, don’t require them…or require so little of them, skillwise, that it isn’t a challenge (or expense) to develop those skills and acquire the tools.

Shotguns? A bit trickier, but I have taken apart a lot of Mossberg 500-series and they’re pretty plug-n-play as well. Not as much as an AR, but Id say they are the least ‘skill intensive’ shotgun in terms of repairs.

When you get into things like hunting/’sniper’ rifles, all bets are off. The Savage series of rifles are probably the easiest to deal with since you can headspace and remove/install barrels with simple tools and not need a mill/lathe operation.

By the by, even if youre not a tinfoil-hat-type like yours truly, there are still some scenarios where you won’t have gunsmithing as an option even without bombs falling and boogaloos in the street.

Under a Biden administration, for example, your AR or FAL becomes a ‘Turn them all in‘ sort of item and then your option of taking it to a gunsmith is about as viable as taking your unregistered machinegun in for a tune up. You’re either stuck with a broken gun, have to find an ‘underground’ gunsmith, or DIY. And DIY is a lot easier with a Lego gun.

Whatever you get for that upcoming uncertain future, keep in mind how easy (or not) it will be to repair and maintain. For now, I’d say the Glock and AR kinda sit at the top.

Equanamity

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Feeling a little burned out because of the constant, unyielding barrage of news about how no one knows when, of if, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Now, personally, I don’t really mind riding through an apocalypse, what I mind is not knowing how long it is to the off ramp.

But, one good thing to come out of this is that I have stepped up my prep game by several orders of magnitude. However, I am, honestly, getting a little tired of it. To be fair though, I’ve been going at it 110% for the last few months. I suppose I could dial it back a tad and still get things done without the burnout.

Perspective, I suspect, is the big thing for me to keep in mind. I’m really not that concerned about getting sick from the Kung Flu. I’m far^5 (thats the same as far, far, far, far, far) more worried about the consequences of the flu….the shortages, the price hikes, the inconveniences…but especially the economic impact. Look, you may avoid contracting this thing entirely. And if you do contract it, the odds are you’ll live through it. But there’s virtually no avoiding the economic fallout. It could be something fairly indirect, like your IRA not being anywhere near where it was 12/31/19, or it could be more direct as when your boss says “Don’t bother taking off your coat”. There’s not going to be any avoiding the economic fallout, the best you’re going to be able to do is mitigate it. The key word is resilience.

At the moment, I’m spending a few minutes each night, long after the sun goes down, sitting on my front steps, appreciating the overall quiet and placidity of the end of the day. I try not to think about anything other than that particular moment. Not think about tomorrow, not think about what needs to be done, not think about what may (or may not) be coming down the pike. Just enjoy the moment of sitting on the steps, on a summer evening, enjoying the calm and quiet. Kinda give myself five minutes where there’s nothing to think about, and just experience five minutes of sitting in the breeze, smelling the night air, and feeling good about that instant.

Of course, after that it’s back to checklists, expiration dates,  spots and premiums, 30-rounders, 4473’s, rates of return, and due dates….the things that make up a life.

What about you? Getting a little burned out at the constant ‘under the gun’ feeling of this crisis? The ambiguous and often conflicting statements about severity and duration? The constant little voice in the back of your head that urges you to ‘do something’ even though you know you’re doing exactly what you should be doing? Whatcha doing about it?

 

Hindsight

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When all of this Kung Flu hit the fan, I stepped things up a bit and did a few things that, at the time, seemed prudent against threats that seemed reasonably possible. How’d that work out?

Cash – I pulled out a couple grand in cash to keep in the gun safe against the banks closing. As it turns out, the bank lobbies were closed, opened briefly, and closed again. ATM’s were always accessible but they limit your daily withdrawals. However, the drive-through lanes never closed so you could always get your money that way. So…was it necessary to pull out the cash and stuff it in the safe? No.

Gas – I beefed up the amount of gasoline I normally keep on hand. Again, this was under the threat of gas stations closing or fuel deliveries being disrupted due to quarantine, sick drivers, etc, etc. Best I can tell, no gas station was closed or was short on product. I did, however, beat the fifty-cents-per-gallon difference between then and now. So…gas stockpiling…unnecessary.

Consumables – I considerably ramped up the storage of food and other consumables, most notably cleaning supplies. Although there were initial shortages, and in some places there still are, the grocery shelves quickly were refilled. So, was it absolutely necessary to ‘go long’ on some things? No.

There’s three big things I did at the beginning of this pandemic that turned out to be unnecessary. Thus far. Do I feel I made any mistakes by doing those things? Do I wish I had not done them? Do I think I wasted resources?

Heck no.

Does anyone ever truly regret this sort of thing? (Stock photo)

Here’s why: this ain’t over. And even if the Kung Flu finally dies down and people stop wearing face masks and bathing in hand sanitizer I will be positioned exceptionally well for whatever comes next. Just because something hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t .

At the time I did the things I did, no one knew what was coming down the pike. As a result, I erred (if you want to call it an error) on the side of caution. And I have zero regrets about it. None. Nada. Because when the next Big Thing comes along, I will be even more prepared than I already was. This stuff is like any other form of insurance – if you get it and don’t use it was it a waste? No, it was not. Because the insurance did exactly what it was supposed to do – it transferred the risk elsewhere.

My risk of being hungry? Gone My risk of being unable to fuel my vehicle? Gone. My risk of having to wipe my butt with leaves? Gone My risk of having to meekly hand over my things to some horde of thugs? Way, way gone. My risk of not having access to the cash needed in an emergency? Gone.

When your spouse starts giving you crap about how you ‘wasted all that money’ on ‘all that crap you have sitting in the garage/basement’ because ‘nothing happened’, ask them if they felt better knowing that stuff was there just in case. If so, then it was not a waste. And, by and large, a lot of the stuff you and I put back is good for years and years, if not decades.

So don’t second guess yourself if you took all sorts of preparations at the beginning of this event and feel like they were unnecessary and unneeded.Keep doing what you’re doing. The day ain’t over yet.

The first rule of Prep Club

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I was talking to someone the other day and they mentioned that their wife, who had been ‘on board’ with his interest in preparedness has, as of late, become more approving of his interest. I told him that he was not the first person to experience this lately. I know several people whose wives tolerated their interest in preparedness as a sort of ‘quirky guy thing’ and have suddenly discovered that they rather appreciate the increased feeling of security it provides.

But, any situation threatening enough to make an on-the-fence/humouring spouse suddenly a believer is also threatening enough that the old “I’ll just come to your place in case anything happens” scenario a bit more dangerous.

This is brought to mind by a dream I had the other night. I dreamt that there was a Mount St Helens type of explosion off on the horizon and my neighbors and I stood on the street and watched half a mountain disappear. Then we watched it re-appear as Volkswagen-size chunks of earth came crashing down around us, destroying homes, cars, power lines, etc. In the dream, I told me neighbor not to worry and to follow me into my basement. The were, naturally, impressed. And I thought “This may have been a bad idea.” Then I woke up.

The message? In calmer times it’s a good idea to obey the first rule of Prep Club. In times of…excitement…it is even more vital. The classic scenario is that the world comes to an end and everyone tries to get into your bomb shelter. But things don’t have to reach that level for secrecy to be your friend. Even without bombs dropping or the dead roaming the land, you still have a ton of resources tied up in ammo, guns, radios, gold, and a dozen other things that your garden-variety burglar or thief is interested in. So, yeah, the first rule of Prep Club is that you don’t talk about Prep Club. (Which is ironic since I am, at the moment, talking about Prep Club.)

I suppose that’s one of my biggest gripes about ‘survival groups’ or ‘mutual aid’ groups. You’re trusting people whom you otherwise might not even spend time with ‘in real life’ with information and location about very valuable things you have. Personally, I find it hard to hand out that level of trust. This is why, in my opinion, the best ‘survival groups’ are very small and have a common social denominator that is extremely intimate. Family, for example, is probably the most intimate social group you can have. And even then, we all have that Aunt Jane or Cousin Joe who we would probably not trust with that sort of information. So if something as closely knit as a family has members who you’d not want ‘in your inner circle’, imagine what it’d be like when you start looking outside that family group. All relationships are transitory. The people you trusted with the GPS coords to your stash buried in the National Forest may, for whatever reason, wind up no longer being part of your circle. And when they depart, they take that information with them and you wind up having to change locks and rebury caches.

On the other hand, you could play it close to the vest and your family may not even know about all the things you’ve put away for them. And you get caught away from home (or worse, killed in the crisis) and they have no idea that their salvation was hidden in the basement behind the grandma’s old furniture or sitting in the rafters of the garage.

It’s definitely interesting times that we are living in. And it is reasonably possible that some aspects of the preparations we have made (almost certainly the financial ones, at least) will wind up coming in handy and getting put to use. It’s because of this increased likelihood, and the increased awareness (and desperation) of others, that keeping information about our personal WalMart we’ve created in the basement should stay under our tinfoil hat.

Ben Franklin said that ‘three can keep a secret if two of them are dead’. I wouldn’t go quite that far but, in todays heightened environment, I definitely do keep a pretty tight hand on who I let in my house and who I talk about this sorta stuff with.

 

Big and Small EOTWAWKI

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Another day in the happy little melting pot that is America. I recall reading Chittum’s “Civil War II The Coming Breakup of America” years and years ago where he predicted that a Balkanization would take place in the US along racial lines. I’m not sure I see that, although you could argue it has already happened de facto. I could see more of a political Balkanization but, in retrospect, we kind of already have that now don’t we? Look at those colored election maps that come out every four years and the same predictable areas are the same predictable colors. *

By accident or design, I managed to land in a place that pretty much aligns with my own ideals (or, perhaps, I landed here and it re-aligned my ideals to suit it). I don’t necessarily fit in with 100% of the prevailing beliefs here (I’m more of a Goldwater conservative rather than the classic conservative) but, thus far, one of the prevailing beliefs here is that as long as youre not screwing around with your neighbor’s stuff you can pretty much believe whatever the heck you want. That works for me.

So although the social issues seem to be getting to the fore these days, I’m still focused on the economic. And, really, these social issues are going to impact the economic numbers just as hard as the superflu. Whether a business is shut down for Covid or BLM it’s still a business making no money and not paying it’s bills. The bottom line is still the same: economic loss.

Since my apocalypse du jour is economic, I tend to lean towards the stockpile “food and cash-like instruments” end of the spectrum. Sure, there’s ammo in there as well but I’m planning for Great Depression II: The Next Generation, not Civil War II: Electric Boogaloo. Although, honestly, the only difference between preparing for one instead of the other is quantity.

And, not to beat a deceased equine, my experience has been that there’s going to be a lot of small, personal, intimate EOTWAWKI’s in your life (job loss, car problems, health scares, housing issues, loved ones in trouble, etc.) before the Big One and nine times out of ten money turns out to be the duct tape that puts your life back together. So…no debt, wad of cash. For whatever that doesnt fix we have our other preps.

I suppose if you live in a major urban population center, or a state that is home to several of them, your concerns are probably (and justifiably) more centered around the …social disturbances…going on at the moment. By all means, keep a wary eye on the crowds and don’t stray far from your favorite thundertoy….but don’t forget that race riots and firebombers occur far, far, far less frequently than pink slips, busted transmissions, sick dogs, and broken water heaters.

Statistically, this is going to happen more times in your life than a zombie apocalypse.

Prepare for the day the Antifa crowd in their black sweatshirts are marching down the street swinging pieces of pipe. It’ll happen at some point, I’m sure. But don’t get so caught up in the possibility of it happening that you ignore the higher probability of those small EOTWWAWKI’s.

 

* = Chittum is viewed, by many, as a racist. But whether he is or not, doesn’t change the validity (or invalidity) of his predictions. If a racist tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming, the fact he is a racist (or a communist, or a Muslim, or a homosexual, or a Democrat) does not change the objective fact that, indeed, a train is coming and you need to get your butt off the tracks.

 

Bunker mentality for the win

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Merciful Crom, has it been a weird year or what? Remember when a 500 point swing in the market would take a week? Now it takes place in one day. And we have riots. And pandemic. And a presidential election. And Chuck Schumer is still running loose.  This really is going to be a year for the books.

And yet…so far…I’ve survived. In fact, not only have I survived, I’ve managed to get ahead on a few things. Most notable – house paid off. (Go me!) And all my investments have recovered to their pre-Superflu balances. And I took advantage of the dip(!) to buy in on the ground floor on a few things.

So, why didn’t I get my butt handed to me like some people in all of this? A few reasons. First and foremost, I live within my means. I drive a car older than I care to mention..but I’ve no car payment. I don’t get to buy expensive toys unless I save for them…but I have no credit card payment. School is paid as I go so…no student loan payment. And, now, house is paid so…no house payment. So when something exciting happens like getting hours cut or a job ‘furloughed’ due to Covid, I can spend the money I have on my needs and not on loan payments.

A few years ago I decided that the smart thing to do was have three different sources of revenue. This way if one crapped out, I wasn’t left with no income. Turns out, not a bad idea. I put a solid 15% of whatever I make into a “Do Not Touch” fund in case of emergencies and, as a result, I can function normally for several months at this point. Longer if I’m willing to give up a few luxuries like cable and that sort of thing.

It also helped that I had plenty of consumables on hand… toilet paper? Not a problem. Beef? Got a freezer full of it. Pasta and rice? Literally hundreds of pounds. If I really, really wanted to I could blow off grocery shopping for , probably, at least the rest of the year. If the money stopped coming in tomorrow I could dedicate $0 to groceries and be juuuuuuust fine.

Civil disturbance? Can’t find an AR for love or money in your local gun shop? No 9mm to be had anywhere? Very, very, very much not a problem.

I’m not saying this to brag, rather I mention it because I feel vindicated. The lifestyle I live, which does sometimes generate a bit of derision from others, has put me in a position where the world may be flailing around like a chicken with its head removed but I’ve got a little ocean of calm and relative security. And I am tremendously grateful to…me….for doing what it took to get there.

Yeah, once in a while my t-shirts have a hole in them, or my shoes look a little frayed, and I use a seven year old phone but…if thats the price of the security and safety that I feel I’ve garnered for myself than I’d say it was a very good trade.

I hope you do as well. I hope you do better. I hope you look at all the possible wildly bad stuff that is going on this year and think “Y’know…I’d feel a little better about my odds if we did…” and then you go do it. There’s still plenty of room for improvement in my situation…more security, more resilience, more resources…but at the moment, things are nowhere near as bad as they are for other people. I know people who have had their hours cut and they have to decide on whether to sell the gun collection in order to meet the mortgage and keep the jet ski from being repossessed. Sad for them, but we all make choices.

Anyway, thats my take on things after watching the news this evening and realizing that, all in all, I’m rather glad I’ve spent the last thirty years as a paranoid survivalist. I should add that while I am satisfied that I’ve been heading in the right direction all along, I’m not complacent. There’s still more to do. Always is.

Reclaiming that sense of urgency

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Be honest, can you relate to this: several weeks ago you were focused. You were at CostCo, WalMart, and a few other places making sure you were ‘topped off’ on things. Maybe you finally pulled the trigger on some of those bigger expenditures because ‘now was the time’. You went to bed each night mentally wargaming how things might go and what you might need, and in the morning you resolved to hurry up and get dressed and go get those things. And then…things seemed ‘kinda’ normal. The panic ebbed and receded. Sure the rice and pasta aisles were empty, but there’s plenty of other stuff. And, after a few weeks, that sense of urgency you felt, that pushed you into doing things, started diminishing. Maybe ‘right now’ became ‘later this week’ became ‘next payday’ became ‘when I get around to it’.

Can you relate to that? Because that’s pretty much what I’m fighting against with the guy in the mirror. I’ve got a lovely spreadsheet of goodies (The Preponomicon) and far too many things on that list are at less than “90% complete”. But…but…it’s sunny! Gas is $1.65! The electricity is on! Dairy Queen is open! We can eat out again! So…what’s you hurry, buddy?

Complacency…thats what it looks like, guys. You stop running when you don’t see the bear behind you anymore. ‘Course, looking behind you means you might not see the other bear ahead of you.

I’m trying to be diligent about working my way down my list and, I gotta say, motivation can be lacking at times. But I know that even if there’s no ‘second wave’ of infections, no mutation, no economic Chernobyl from spending, no massive job layoffs, no meat shortages, no drug shortages, no stock market slump, happening right now that doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen tomorrow, or next week, or next month. The tricky part is maintaining that mindset that ‘bad stuff could be right around the corner’ when all your sense are saying ‘things arent so bad right now’.

So…I look at my list and remind myself that I wrote it for a good reason, I thought it over carefully, and made the ffort to put it on paper. I trust the me from two months ago that this was worth following up on. So…off to CostCo.

You guys should do whatever it takes…watch Walking Dead, read One Second After, review some graphic historical accounts of societal disasters…whatever it takes for you to recover your motivation, but stay motivated. Even if we sail through this, and the crappy fallout, there’ll be another one along before you know it.