Economic butterfly effect

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Hazlitt, in his outstanding book “Economics In One Lesson“, said ““…the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.”

That follow-through, the tracing of consequences through all the branches, is really what I recommend doing in these interesting times. If gas prices go up, for example, the result is…you pay more at the pumps. Thats the easy sound-bite answer. But follow the consequences further…transport costs go up, those costs get passed on to consumers, prices go up to make up the difference, everything costs more, less goods may get shipped, less goods shipped means shortages or ‘supply issues’, etc, etc. And the ‘more at the pumps’ translates into less money for food, bills, medicine, etc. Our world is a sweater that unravels pretty quickly when you start pulling a couple threads.

There’s a whole economic ‘butterfly effect‘ that probably needs to be examined. For most of us, the most immediate effect we’ve seen is a rise in gas prices (and a dramatic price drop in Ukrainian real estate). But there will be tons of other consequences that, in hindsight, will seem obvious. Economic warfare between nations will spawn all sorts of collateral and retaliatory consequences. Remember the oil embargo in ’73?

The point I’m trying to make is that, as competent survivalists, it would be a good idea to sit down in a quiet room and just think for awhile.How does whats going on in Europe affect your day-to-day existence? How will sanctions affect it? Retaliatory cyberwarfare? Nutjob self-appointed ‘warriors for [Ukraine/Putin/China/religion]‘? And that’s in addition to the bizarre and draconian experiences that Wuhan Flu Mk! & II have given us.

Even if you’re not a survivalist, you can still use your rational mind to examine the current situation and, I would think, come to the same conclusion: now is a good time to make sure you’ve increased your resilience. Resilience to a job loss, resilience to the toilet paper aisle being empty, resilience to $8/# ground beef, resilience to ‘temporary’ power outages, resilience to ‘peaceful demonstrations’, resilience to having to stand on line for…anything.

I’m very curious to see how all this shakes out. Nuclear WWIII? A virtual impossibility, IMHO. The minute Putin gives the order to launch I think his generals will take matters into their own hands and there’ll be an announcement that Comrade Putin has succumbed to the stresses of his position and is taking a medically mandated respite. Plus, there are several precedents for ‘cooler heads prevailing’.

But I’m usually wrong in my predictions, so…there’s that.

Im not saying………..

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$3.54/gal when I went to work this morning, $3.71/gal when I got off work. Hmm.

While it is important, no doubt, to stockpile guns, ammo, precious metals, and that sort of thing. I cannot overemphasize how important it is to stockpile the ‘unsexy’ stuff. The toothpaste, socks, light bulbs, aluminum foil, dental floss, laundry soap, etc. Everything is going to a) go up in price and b) have it’s availability fluctuate.

I’m not saying the power grid is going to shut down and we’ll all freeze to death, but what will happen is prices will go up and you’ll shave 5 degrees off your thermostat…or turn the heat off at night….or wear more layers around the house.

I’m not saying you’ll go to the gas pumps and find them empty, I’m saying you’ll go there, fill up, and then question every trip you make afterwards. You’ll get your groceries from one grocery store each week rather than drive to the other side of town because that one grocery store has the special orange juice you like

I’m not saying you’ll be eating freezedrieds and MRE’s for breakfast, lunch, and dinner….but you will reduce the amount of meat and other premium ingredients in what you cook. And maybe you’ll take leftovers more seriously. .And you’ll return from the market with less food for having spent the same amount of money.

I’m not saying you’ll sit up at night with a shotgun across your knees, keeping watch while your family sleeps. But you will become more acutely aware of your surroundings and the people around you.

It isn’t the end of the world yet, but it’s definitely a change in the world. How far down this slope we go is still anyone’s guess. But, for me, I’m focused less on ammo and guns right now and more on things I buy for my day-to-day life that I’d like to not have to worry about.

Two weeks ago it was a fairly unexciting, though gloomy, world….I wonder what it’ll be two weeks from now.

 

Scenes from the supermarket

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This is the sort of thing that makes my brain itch:

These signs were at the meat and deli counter at the supermarket. What I didn’t take a picture of was the other sign apologizing for the deli counter keeping limited hours because of ‘staffing shortages’.

Look, I’m the first to admit that I overthink things. I’ve spent the last twenty years on this blog not saying that the sky is falling, but rather that it is about to fall. Still maintain that.

Let’s look at things objectively. Inflation is among us, whittling away your saved money. Agreed? And fuel prices, which were already moving north, are going to definitely be going up now that World War Three is finally on deck. So..we can agree that fuel prices aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. Agreed? And we know that businesses do not stay in business by operating at a loss. Increases in costs (esp. due to that increased fuel costs) and shortages of material/manpower mean that consumer prices have to go…up.

So what you’ve got here, m’friend, is a virtual certainty that literally everything you buy is going to not go down in price, will likely not stay at its current price, and is pretty much guaranteed to increase in price. Assuming its even available. And not rationed.

I recommend that you cut the fat out of your budget, skip buying the jet ski, big TV, or skip the vacation, and funnel that money into food, ammo, fuel, clothes, diapers, or whatever else you buy often and want to avoid paying more for. Or that you don’t want to risk availability issues.

I’m not saying that because I think T-62’s and Russian paratroops are gonna be landing on our shores. I’m saying it because there’s at least a a half-dozen catalysts (war, inflation, pandemic, etc.) on the loose that by themselves would be cause for heightened awareness and thoughtfulness. But theres more than one..and their effect is synergistic.

If you’ve got a family or partner/spouse who thinks you’ve always been ‘a little out there’ with ‘all that survivalist nonsense’ you’re gonna have a rough time of it. You’re gonna have to decide if incurring the wrath of those close to you is worth giving them the margin of safety that comes from sacrificing the trip to Hawaii and buying canned goods instead. I don’t envy you. But sometimes you’ve got to get all 1950’s and put your foot down and say “I’m doing this because I believe it’s the right thing to do for us, to keep us safe, to keep us secure, and I make no apologies for it.” Lemme know how that works out.

If you’re lucky enough to be in a situation where those around you are ‘on the same page’, then sit down with them (with the TV and phones off) and talk about your-and-their concerns and make plans how youre going to address those concerns. And… Its time to talk to your like-minded buddies and agree to share information….what store has primers in stock? Who has sirloin on sale this week? What gas station did you see with the best price?

In all likelihood at this time next year things will look alot like they do now…we’ll still go to work, we’ll still have hot water and electricity, we’ll still go to CostCo on the weekends. I’d put it at the high 90% range. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be hiccups between now and then. Do the things necessary to smooth out any bumps in the road that may appear.

 

Lily gilding

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Ok, I don’t need another one, but I wanted another one.

And my vendor finally had one in stock after almost eight months.

And it’s only gonna be more expensive later.

And…and….and….

Well, dang it…I’m a survivalist, I don’t have to justify it. Gaze upon the latest addition to the Absurdly Redundant Gun Collection:

The real reason is because I kinda like the G3 platform for the .308. No gas system to worry about, excellent accuracy, reliability that is hard to beat, good aftermarket support, and most importantly…the previous negatives about the G3 platform have been addressed. And to go even further, the ‘modernization’ of the G3 has made it into virtually a completely different gun.

Unfortunately, about half my collection of PTR’s pre-date the improvements (paddle release, rail, muzzle threading) that were made a few years ago. So, I can live without a rail and with metric threads on the muzzle….but that paddle release is a big freakin’ deal. Fortunately, there’s a guy out there who does ATF-approved paddle conversions. (Long story short: unless done a particular way, installing the hole necessary for the paddle mag release also allows installation of full-auto parts. This is why the original HK91’s were imported without paddle release.) It’s about $200 to have the paddle release done, but with new PTR’s going for over a grand, it makes sense to spend the money and convert my $400-$600 PTR’s that were purchased long ago.

This PTR was ordered brand new and shot very nicely right out of the box. SOP is, according to HK, to sight in at 30 meters which puts you on at 200m.

Out of the box the thing shot about 3″ low at 30m but windage was spot-on. Fortunately, I have the necessary HK sight adjustment tool and was able to adjust the sight drum accordingly. Pro: once set you will never accidentally screw up the zero on your gun. Con: the reason you won’t accidentally screw it up is because it takes an obscure and expensive sight tool to adjust the sight. (Yes, you can use snap ring pliers…with all the attendant scratching and scuffing that will subsequently occur. Buy the sight tool.)

If I were not already committed to the G3 platform, I probably would go with the AR-10. Ergonomics and modularity are the biggest selling points of the AR-10 platform, along with a small degree of commonality with AR15 stuff. However, at this point it makes no sense to change over since I’ve gotten the G3 logistics of mags, parts, etc, fairly nailed down.

Used to be the PTR and 100 mags would cost you less than an M1A and a dozen mags. Times have changed. You can still find G3 mags for less than $5-$10 ea, but dealer on the PTR’s are now about $1050…about 10-15% higher than what they were a year or two ago. And thats dealer price. Still, for creeping around the post apocalyptic landscape it’s pretty hard to find something as relatively bulletproof as that HK platform.

 

Goalkeeping II

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Annnd..99.89% on my goal of silver for the year. I’m gonna call that 100%.

I was gonna hold off and buy the remaining silver over the next couple weeks but I’ve no idea where the prices are going and I’d rather err on the side of caution and buy it now. I asked a buddy of mine where he thought silver would be on December 31’st and he said “Thirty bucks”. Thing is, will silver have climbed to $30 or will it have dropped to $30. And, no doubt, there’s many an opinion that $30 is a way, way underestimate.

Nonetheless:

  • Emergency Fund goal for 2022 – complete
  • Silver goal for 2022 – complete
  • HSA goal for 2022 – complete

Remaining:

  • Roth goal for 2022 – 55.75% complete
  • Gold goal for 2022 – 75.89% complete
  • Land goal for 2022 – 43.18% complete

How are yours coming?

How does it affect me

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I can’t speak for the entire community of people who self-identify as survivalists, but I think it’s a reasonable assumption to say that no one ever went through the annoyances, expense, time, and effort of being a survivalist because their one overriding concern was everybody but themselves. Most people, in my experience, get into preparedness (or survivalism, if you prefer) because their #1 concern is either themselves or people they care about (spouse, kids, family, etc.)

So, it isn’t really offensive, in my opinion, to say that survivalism is about protecting you…your life, your family, your property, your interests. Sure, if your neighbors, your country, your fellow citizens survive thats great…but you didnt stock away all those freeze drieds and ammo to save them. You did if for you and yours. And thats perfectly reasonable.

The reason I mention this is because as I was watching the news I find it very difficult to avoid asking myself, as a survivalist, what I think is a very basic and obvious question: how will this affect me?

“What! People are dying, nations are at war, refugees are being created and you’re sitting in your heated home, eating hot food, watching the internet and you want to know how this will affect YOU?!?!?!”, says the woke and self-appointed self-righteous guardians of outrage-by-proxy

Uhm…yes. I want to know how this affects me. Know why? Because while I am saddened at the thought of people in far and distant lands having their lives destroyed I am more concerned about my own life. Because…well…I’m living my life, not theirs.

So, yeah, maybe its selfish, maybe its thoughtless, maybe its insensitive. But, my first priority is me. My second priority is those I care about. You and everyone else are a distant third. I make absolutely no apologies for this. And I expect that from where youre standing, its the same thing towards me. And…thats cool.

So how does (or will) this Ukraine/Russia thing affect me, other than perhaps slowing down the Eastern European mail-order bride spam? Well, first of all, I don’t think I know a single person in real life who didn’t hustle to the gas station and fill their vehicle today. Me included. (By the way, two years ago, when there were Mean Tweets, if I bought $50 worth of gas it would have filled my fuel tank and half the bed of my truck. Nowadays..no.) And gas cans? Murdoch’s is, unsurprisingly, out of them. Fancy that.

My buddy at the gold/silver store was doing brisk business not seen since the early days of Wuhan Flu.

And although I didn’t do any grocery trips today, I’m willing to bet that the food storage corner at WinCo was a little lighter.

So how will the current situation affect me? Indirectly, mostly. The turmoil in the markets, oil prices, and the off chance of ‘bad actors’ all stand to cause collateral damage. I’m pretty well insulated from the worst of it, but you never know what sort of threats are looming.

I feel bad for the folks in Ukraine but as much as I wish them luck in re-enacting the ending of ‘300’, my main focus, in the midst of pandemic, inflation, and war, is myself and those I care about. I see nothing wrong with that and hope that you don’t either.

It’s wild world we live in these days.

Pretty cold

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I’m an advocate of ‘stay with the vehicle’ for those times when you wind up, for whatever reason, unable to proceed any further…could be snow, vehicle malfunction, bad gas, whatever…if you’re in the middle of nowhere and your vehicle cannot proceed the thing to do is stay with the vehicle. Don’t believe me? Search the blog using the tag ‘strandings’ and read what comes up.

Staying with the vehicle is easier if you have the necessary gear, and I like to think I keep the vehicle stocked with the necessary gear. So, when its 0-degrees out and the wind is howling, is that surplus military sleeping bag really going to keep you from losing toes, ears, fingers , and nose to frostbite? Assuming you survive?

Let’s find out.

I keep a military sleep system in the vehicle year-round. Its an okay system and the price is right – free at most military standdowns. I have a half dozen in storage. Are they actually warm down to 0 degrees? Well, last night was at zero so I decided to test it out. I rolled out the GI sleeping mat, laid out the sleep system..inner bag, out bag, bivvy sack…stripped down to socks, shorts and a t-shirt, and climbed in. First off all, that transition of several seconds from ‘fully dressed while standing outside in 0 degree weather’ to ‘partially dressed but huddled in a sleeping bag’ was…intense. Once in the bag it was huddle in a ball until things warmed up. And then….not bad. I basically cinched everything up so my nose and mouth poked through the hood of the bag and left it at that. I’m not going to say it was toasty, but it was warm enough I could fall asleep and it was, without a doubt, warm enough that I wouldnt lose body parts to frostbite.

While I was cocooned in the bag, I used my phone to entertain myself and see what the official weather was.. -1 with winds around 12-15mph. And there were gusts that I could feel rippling across the bivvy sack, which did a nice job of being windproof.

I suspected that the military sleep system would be adequate and it was. This was laying on the ground in an unprotected and open area. Used in a vehicle, which would offer some material benefits in terms of protection from the weather, the MSS should be pretty much ideal. Better bags out there? Absolutely..but the MSS come out cheap enough that you can have a couple in a vehicle and not break the bank.

Drawbacks? A tad snug. Bulky as hell, but since it’s just sitting in the truckbox that isn’t really an issue. but, more importantly, experiments like these give me faith in a piece of gear and thats got quite a value all on its own.

So, if all you keep in your rig is a couple blankets, or, worse, a ‘space blanket’, I invite you to wait for a nice, clear, bitterly cold night and try them out for a few hours. Its the kinds of experiment that costs nothing but can pay off some big dividends…especially next time you get stuck in your vehicle in the dead of winter.

“Nice AK”, the officer said…………

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Scene:  driving into Polson MT. Flashing rear lights in the mirror. Pull over and wait for the cop to walk up to the car. Keep in mind, at this point there’s the Glock on my hip, one in my bag, a Ruger 9mm under the seat and…a drum-mag’d AK sitting on the passenger seat, with the butt and pistol grip conveniently angled towards me.

“I’m Officer [XXX] with the Polson PD. I pulled you over because you were doing 55 down the hill, its a 45 zone.”

“Sorry, man.”, I said, and when he asked why I was driving ‘so fast’ I gave him the Universally Accepted Reason For Any Guy Doing Something Stupid.

He shines his flashlight into the back of the truck and then into the footwell of the passenger side of the front seat.

“Nice AK”, he says.

“Thats my travel AK. Don’t leave home without it. I have a nicer Arsenal one at home, this  is  just a WASR”

“Don’t leave home without it”, he murmurs, clearly amused. “I have a friend up in Kalispell whose built a few AK’s. He folds the flats and does the rivetting….”, he says.

We chat for a few minutes about 7.62×39 vs. 5.45×39. He takes my ID and says “Am I gonna find any warrants on you when I run this?”

“Nope. Should be clean as a whistle.”

He comes back and says “Ok, Im giving you a warning. Slow down.”

And me and my passneger-seated-and-drum-magazine’d WASR-10 continued on our merry way.

See, thats one of the things I like about MT. No muss, no fuss. Lotta places the minute he sees the rifle on the passenger seat it would turn into an ‘incident’. But, hey, I didnt reach for my gun, he didnt reach for his gun, so we can all be civilized and chat about guns for a couple minutes.

And, before anyone asks, yes in Montana you can have a loaded rifle in the vehicle. Heck, you can have a loaded anything. And no, you don’t have to inform the cop if youre carrying a gun. And you don’t need a permit to carry it openly..or concealed..or to buy it. It’s almost like living in a free country.

Three day weekend

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I had almost forgotten that, on some levels, this is a three-day weekend due to Presidents Day. For those of you over a certain age,  you may recall that Presidents Day is the holiday that supplanted Lincoln’s Birthday and Washington’s Birthday as federal holidays. Then. naturally, the good idea fairy showed up and it was decided that we needed Monday holidays to give more three-day weekends.

Regardless, its an opportunity for me to catch up on some things. Most notably, I really need to rotate some things out of food storage. For instance, since CostCo has the canned roast beef back in stock I plan on moving a bunch of my older stuff into the kitchen for use and replacing it with more recent production stock.

And, speaking of CostCo, I got my rebate bonus from them yesterday. I was toying with the idea of getting another freezer but I’m really not sure where I’d put it. Not only do i have to find a location for it, I have to make sure it gets plugged into a circuit that is separate from the current freezer since I’d prefer not to have the issue of both freezer’s compressors going at the same time and creating a draw that overloads things. But, more pressing, I just cant find the room.

So, it’ll be clipboard-in-hand for a few hours late tonight in the basement, Bluetooth speaker playing podcasts, while I make sure I’m up-to-date with the preponomicon. Not an exceptionally fun way to spend an extra day off, but, for me, a pretty satisfying one.