Tag Archives: stockpiling

Another weekend, another fifty bucks

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It’s the weekend, therefore it is time for me to spend another fifty bucks on getting the Preponomicon into the green. And, as more and more things are approaching the 100% level, it’s become greener and greener on that list. Today I rang the bell on dental floss, iced tea mix, spaghetti sauce, cleanser, and toothbrushes. Boring stuff, right? Well, yea, actually…it is. Seems unlikely that in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina there were people sitting on the roof of their house saying “Thank science you had all that dental floss!”. But, it’s those mundane and boring things that often add to the quality of life. And, really, if the world has gone downhill badly enough that you need to get into your stockpile of emergency dental floss then it’s also bad enough that the last thing you need is dental problems. Plus, dental floss grows wild out here. That crap is everywhere.

So, the stockpiling continues… It’s worth pointing out that the stuff I’m stockpiling, in terms of foodstuffs, is all short- to -mid-term foods. The long-term stuff, like the #10 cans of freeze drieds, were purchased years ago and have been securely packaged and laid back for the Deep Sleep. Pretty much everything I’m stockpiling now is day-to-day stuff that I want to have a large enough quantity of so that if I’m unable to resupply for any reason I can go a long time before having to explore less attractive options.

The stockpiling has progressed to the point that of the 85 items (thus far) on the list, 60 of them are at 90% or better. There are 18 items below 50%. All in all….progress.

By the by, what goes on and off that list changes over time. Some stuff just doesn’t need to be kept ‘live’ in terms of updates to quantity. Stuff is always changing. One week I might find something and think it definitely needs to be added to the mix, and the next week I might determine that a item is superfluous and remove it. Adaptability.

Cruising through CostCo doesn’t seem to indicate any ‘second wave’ of panic buying yet. Yet. However, some items, like bleach wipes, are still a no-show whereas items that had previously vanished, like TP and rice, are plentiful. I’ve got plenty of both, so I can be a detached observer.

Other than dedicating about fifty bucks a weekend towards preps, I’m being rather tight-fisted with the greenbacks these days. There is just too much uncertainty in the air for me to feel comfortable letting go of the Ultimate Multitool (which is cash). Between a pandemic-ravaged economy and political turmoil, there is less certainty that things will ‘be okay’ fiscally and that naturally makes a fella wanna circle the financial wagons. So…no impulse buying, put the vacation on hold, drive the same car for another year, skip the new iPhone, and make the most of what you’ve got.

No one knows with certainty what the future is going to bring. That’s kinda obvious. But there are times when we’re comfortable with that uncertainty (“might rain, might not”) and there’s times we’re very uncomfortable with it (“Might lose my job today, might not…better hold off on the Harley”). Right now, it’s the latter kind of uncertainty…the kind with big consequences. For me, anyway. But, that’s cool because me is the person I’m most concerned about in all this.

So…progress. More food on the shelves, supplies in the bins, money in the bank, silver in the safe, and peace in the mind.

Shelf Reliance

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Food rotation is one of those important things to keep in mind when storing food. Sure, a 15-gallon drum of rice will last virtually forever (if my Y2k stash is anything to go by), but it’s probably a good idea to rotate through whatever you store every few years.

When it comes to canned goods, there are zillions of can ‘rotation shelves’, ‘organizer shelves’, and other can distributors. I had a can organizer that I bought years ago when they were up at CostCo. It has served well for a number of years but, as of late, I’ve kinda ramped up the inventory of canned goods. This means I need to have  more cans positioned so that the oldest ones get used up first. So, it was time to expand on the modular can organizer.

First step, clear off a run of shelving:

Next step is to unbox these guys:

Grab a couple cans off the shelf to make sure the spacing is correct, and start assembling. The whole thing snaps together like Lego so…no muss, no fuss.

Finish assembly, slide into shelf, and start adding cans…oldest go in first:

I then ran a second row across the shelf next to it, but since it’s pretty much identical to this one there’s no point in documenting that.

Now, yeah, you can buy some cheaper units. And, if your even halfway talented with a saw and a hammer you can fab up something on your own. However, what I was after was modularity.This unit can be configured for variable width to accommodate different size cans, they can be linked together to form one long continuous run, and, very conveniently, they seamlessly integrated with the existing unit I had which was about 15 years old. So…very backwards compatible, which is nice.

You can order of Amazon if you’re so inclined.

Given how much I’m spending these days on beefing(!) up the food storage, the last thing I need is to waste money on cans of food getting shoved into a dark corner, being discovered years later, and having to be discarded because they should have been used up years earlier.

How’s your short- to mid-term food storage coming along? I’m feeling pretty good with what I have so far. I need to fine tune a few ‘luxury’ items I want but….starve to death? Not a chance. However, for practicality’s sake, it would be nice to take about half of this and move it to the Beta Site.

Incremental progress

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A few weeks back, I got a tad more religion in terms of keeping an up-to-date list of what I have and, more importantly, what I needed. It’s settled into a routine now where, every weekend, I print out my most up-to-date version of the Preponomicon and head off to Costco or Wallyworld. I tell myself “I’m not gonna spend more than $XX today” and I try to stick to that. Thus far…meh…I do a fair amount of sticking to the amount I promised myself I’d spend, but, more importantly, I am always better provisioned after each trip.

Food was, of course, the biggest priority. Can’t repel the zombie hordes if youre weak from hunger, right? And while the food isn’t at 100%, it is mostly all in the green levels so I am comfortable moving a little bit into the other categories. Most notable, cleaning and hygiene.

Don’t let The Walking Dead fool you… wear the same sweat-stained shirt for days on end in the summer, while getting coated in dirt, grime, and bodily fluids, and take a hot shower once a week with laundry done even less frequently…. and you’re headed for major problems. Eat from filthy stained tableware, plates, or cookware and you’re gonna have a bad day. Add the threat of pandemic into the mix and now you relly have a reason to try and keep yourself and your environment reasonably clean. You don’t have to be fastidiously OCD clean, but try to keep yourself and your living conditions as clean as if you had a hot date coming over tonight.

So, what’s sitting on the wire shelving in large quantity? Pine Sol, Simple Green, Lysol, Clorox (which needs to be rotated every so often), sponges, bleach wipes, paper towels, brillo, laundry soap, dish soap, disinfectant, shower soap, shampoo, floss, toothpaste, toothbrushes (shouldn’t that really be teethbrushes?), mouthwash, TP, Q-tips, Kleenex, deodorant, lip balm, and a buncha other goodies. After a long day of hanging looters, quelling riots, and rescuing morally-challenged coeds from Aryan blood gangs wouldn’t you want to look and smell nice for the celebratory barbecue later that evening? Truth is, though, decent hygiene and sanitation prevents a whole lot of badness that you would prefer to avoid during a crisis. And it’s a lot easier to stay somewhat clean when you have the necessary resources. Plus, hey, in times of economic uncertainty when your paycheck is unexpectedly cutoff it’s kinda nice to know you don’t have to spend money on any of those things for over a year.

Just one more thing to ‘get into the green’ levels on the list. But, gotta admit, when i run out of something in my day-to-day usage it’s darn convenient to just trot downstairs and pull some extra off the shelf and get back to business.

The shopping continues

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Not much change going on here. I’m still working my way down the Preponomicon, bringing up the various levels of items that I want to keep onhand at all times. Most of which are food. Because I’m doing more food shopping these days I am more observant of conditions at various retail food outlets. Local grocery stores, for example, are pretty much back to pre-panic stock levels. Walmart, though, surprises me and seems to continuously look like a going-out-of-business sale in their food departments. Oh, fresh vegetables and meats are there, but the boxed/jarred/canned products are hit-n-miss. I would have thought that with WalMarts tremendous logistics capacity they would have no trouble keeping things on the shelf. But, someone pointed out to me that it is quite possible that WalMart is allocating things to larger, more hard-hit markets. Four of the five pallets of pasta destined for Montana may have been rerouted to Denver…or Sacramento..or Chicago. I can see that…seems reasonable.

So I hit two or three other supermarkets to round out the holes in my list. Honestly, I enjoy walking up and down the aisles. I almost never fail to discover products I didn’t know existed. You know, when I first started getting serious about keeping food on hand there were not a lot of options. Nowadays there are tons of ‘retort pouch’-ed products and shelf-stable foods that were only a dream two decades ago.

The more astute and label-checking of you will notice that virtually all of those foods have something in common: salt and fat. It seems like every online discussion of long-term food gets someone chiming in with “Thats way too much sodium!”. May be. But, in the post-apocalypse world you’re gonna be sweating a lot and replacing that salt will be a big deal. (See the middle third of ‘Alas Babylon’.) But , most importantly, it beats starving. You have high blood pressure and are therefore avoiding salt? Ok. I’ll bet that alot of people who have high blood pressure are going to have lower blood pressure after the weight loss and exercise that comes with living through an apocalypse. Not all, but I bet most.

So, I’ve got an updated version of the Preponomicon sitting in my phone and I wander the aisles, like Diogenes with his lamp, looking for an honest bargain. At the moment, all I’m after is to get everything on my list into the green.

And, as I keep telling you guys, the little TEOTWAWKI events will far outnumber the large ones. Job loss, medical emergency, etc, etc, will occur far more frequently than nuclear wars and asteroid collisions. Heck, some of you guys right now are experiencing job loss or reduced hours due to the Current Situation. Which is proving to be more useful…the money in the back or the M855 in the basement? Obviously, we want both but practically we should probably concentrate on the former harder than the latter.

But, as the kids say, you do you and I’ll do me. For me, I’ve already got gobs of guns, ammo, fuel, and that sort of thing on hand. Right now my focus is on the day-to-day stuff and getting cash (or cash-like instruments) tucked away.

Inventory

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A genuine sign of the apocalypse: I had to cut my own hair. Turns out, I look good in a ball cap. It occurred to me that if I can’t find a haircut because my barber is closed up, then there must be a lot of chicks out there who can’t get their waxing done. Now theres a crisis. #welcometo1987
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Government setting up internal checkpoints and tracking your movements, standing in line for toilet paper, rationed healthcare, economic freefall, empty grocery shelves, neighbors ratting out neighbors to the police…it’s like a free 30-day trial of socialism.
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I’ve been using some of this downtime (which for me isn’t very much) to streamline a few processes. Most notably, my inventorying system. I know that there are still folks who use a clipboard and pen but I find Excel to be the shiznits for this sort of thing. Formerly, I used to keep a very simple, sortable list. As of late I’ve changed it up. I recognize that having less than the desired amount of something is not necessarily the same as a ‘go replace it immediately’, situation. Lemme give an example.

I like to keep 210 rolls of TP on hand. Thats seven of the CostCo 30-packs. Formerly, my spreadsheet would subtract the amount on hand from the amount desired and whatever the difference was is what I needed to go get. Or, put another way, I want 210, I have 208, so in theory I need to go out and buy 2. And thats how I rolled (heh) for a number of years.

As of late, I’ve changed the system to something I find more fluid and flexible but still allowing me to keep inventory numbers up. Previously, anything less than 100% was “running low”. I’ve adjusted my numbers and reformulated the spreadsheet so that if I have 90% of an item or more, I’m at an acceptable level of readiness. Anything below 90% is the trigger to immediately restock back up to 100%. Under this paradigm, if the supply of TP drops from 210 (100%) down to, say, 200 (95%~)…no immediate action required. But if it drops below 189 (90%) then it’s off to CostCo. In short, I figure that I am content with 90% of my desired amount of an item in case things suddenly go off the rails.

This did mean making some adjustments to what my desired levels are on some things. It meant assuming, worst case, I would start the apocalypse with 90% of what I thought would be the perfect amount. Some things I was cool with that (TP), some I was not (rice) and so those items had their amounts bumped up.

I’ve got it set now so that anything on my spreadsheet that is at more than 90% shows up in green, and anything below 90% shows up in ‘warning yellow’. Anything below 75% show up in ‘danger red’. So, at a glance, I can see by color code what needs attention and how soon.

I’ve been plugging a few holes in my list lately and, surprisingly, with the exception of 25# bags of long grain rice, anything I need thats on my list is available somewhere in this town. Tell you what, gang…this is the slowest moving end-of-the-world I’ve ever seen. Where’s the cannibal army? Where’s the rogue military units? Where’s the plucky survivor who rallies the townies? Where’s Charlton Heston?

Ah, but seriously… I suspect it’s going to get worse before it gets better, and the getting better part won’t necessarily be the same as ‘back to normal’. Much how things never got ‘back to normal’ after 9/11. But, for now, I’m just watching the news and my local scene, wondering when the real crapstorm is gonna start.

A sign of normalcy

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Theoretically, the way you put down a bank run is to give people all the cash they want. As the crowd sees that everyone can get their money the belief that there is something wrong with the bank fizzles. That’s the theory, anyway.

Look at what CostCo had, in spades:

Gotta say, seeing all that buttribbon in one place kinda tamps down the sense of urgency. And although I prefer long-grain rice to short-grain rice, it was still nice to see the rice back in stock. No purchase limits either.

BUT….realistically, we all know this may be a temporary situation. As soon as the next wave of this infected people hit the hospitals and make headlines we can expect this sort of surfeit to disappear. So…stock it if ya need it.

Convenience stores

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Like every smart survivalist, I try to keep a fairly good amount (and selection) of short- to mid-term foods on hand. Mostly stuff that I normally use and therefore can rotate through within a period of time of less than a year or so. Things like salsa, spaghetti sauce, pasta, canned meats, canned vegetables, etc, etc. I was doing an inventory and thought that I needed to round off a few things and beef up the amount of others. Since it was going to be a goodly amount of stuff, I figured I’d really nerd out and price compare my usual local grocery suppliers on their websites. As it turns out, unsurprisingly, Walmart wound up being the most economic supplier for about 85% of the things I was looking for. Okay, fine..now I know where to shop. And as I was on Walmarts doing this, I noticed that I had the option to simply order the stuff up, pay online, and simply roll up to the store the next day and have everything all boxed up and ready to go. Hmm. Okay, let’s try that.

And..it worked out quite well. I simply dumped the email confirmation that Walmart sent into Excel, took thirty seconds to clean it up, and then had a nice record of quantities and price-per-ounce breakdowns for comparison shopping later. And, when I went to pick up the stuff, it really was all of about four minutes to pick it up and stuff it in the back of the vehicle.

Say what you will about Wallyworld, they do take a bunch of the friction out of stocking up.

I’d been a bit remiss in updating the food stash lately…being able to just flop into a chair and add a case of crushed tomatoes, a dozen jars of salsa, a half dozen bottles of Tabasco, etc, into one list, pay for it, and then schedule a pickup the next day….thats some living in future right there, boyo.

 

Money v. Goods II

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I had mentioned that next paycheck I was going to work an item or two off my proposed Go Heavy list. As it turns out, I woke to a mailbox with a paystub from a former employer paying me for…I have no idea what. I’m guessing a payroll error somewhere got caught in an audit and this is what happens. Regardless, it means that I can go ahead and start my little experiment.

The format is actually pretty simple. Whatever I buy a huge quantity of will be marked with the date, place of purchase, and price. At the end of the year, there are two possible outcomes (well, really an infinite number of possible outcomes, but liet’s not split metaphysical hairs…) – either I am out of the item, in which case that means the amount purchased was, in fact, not a years supply (QED), or there is some product left which indicates that I overestimated. At the end of the year I’ll see if the prices have changed and figure what that change was, and I’ll have my percentage (+/-) of what purchasing en masse at the beginning of the year saved me.

Of course, this doesn’t have to take place at the beginning of the year, it can take place whenever you want as long as you faithfully track 12-months from the starting point.

My list of items to store has actually gotten fairly long. Food, housewares, etc. Since some of the items on my list are actually on sale now at Albertsons, I’ll probably start with those and work from there. Should be interesting.

By the case? Buy the case….Pt IV

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About 18 months ago my local Albertsons had a good sale on pasta and I took advantage of it like Bill Clinton takes advantage of interns. Well, that sale came back and I decided i could use a few(!) cases of rigatoni.

Shopping carts are for amateurs. When the Zero stocks up, he goes deep.

Savings? Well, according to my receipt, what normally would have cost 238.80 came out to sixty bucks. (Got careless, forgot to ask for the 10% case discount.)

The apocalypse will be a fairly carbohydrate-heavy experience what with all the rice and pasta in storage, it seems.

In actuality, this is mostly my desire to have a large amount of day-to-day use items on hand in case some sort of financial donkey punch occurs. When you show up at work one day and your boss says “We’re being bought out by another company. This office will close in three weeks. Good luck.”, you really want to have some of the expensive niggling details (like food) locked down. Also, I just feel calmer and more at peace when I look at the shelves and see boxes and cans of food, racks of toiletries, paper towels, soap, detergent, and all the other consumables that keep my quality of life above that of some Third Worlder.

Wouldn’t it make more sense to stockpile the cash instead of the food if I am worried about such things? Well, yes…except for that part about the fabulous sale. Lets put it this way: You have $60 cash in hand..save it or buy food? If you’re worried about a job loss, for example, and you’ve tied that $60 in food, then you only have that one thing (food) covered. But if you keep the $60 in cash, you can use it to buy food..or fuel..or electricity. So does that mean it makes more sense to stick that $60 in the bank? Nope.. heres why: I didn’t buy $60 worth of food. I bought $240 worth of food and paid $60. Or, put another way, if I stuck that $60 in the bank, when I used it in the future I’d get only $60 worth of food. In this particular case, my purchase power today was 4x what my purchase power would be with that same $60 later.  (Disregarding inflation, which would actually make todays purchase more than 4x the purchasing power.) The more clinically minded of you will say “Wait, we’re drifting into Time Value Of Money country..” Yes. Yes we kinda are.)This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t put money away as part of your preps…it just means that you need to think about things past the obvious. Maybe you already do that..I didn’t used to. Preparedness is really about resource management in regards to risk reduction – we try to get the most for our money when we take steps to protect ourselves from future problems.

Regardless, I’m pleased with todays purchase. It’s more food on the shelf and one less thing I have to worry about acquiring when/if I hit an economic rough patch.

Is it enough if you can’t get any more tomorrow

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This is going to be one of those posts thats going to get linked to quite a bit in future posts. Why? Well, because I get tired of repeating over and over again a brief encapsulation of why I buy as many of a particular thing.

Uncertain Goods

I’ve mentioned this in the past, but Uncertain Goods are items whose future availability cannot be readily assured. It’s not a black and white issue….some items will be more uncertain than others. And, depending on the nature of the apocalypse you are forecasting, all items can be Uncertain Goods. Lemme give some examples…

Dental Floss. Those little plastic boxes with the spool of floss and the cutter? Yeah, those. Are they an Uncertain Good? No..I am virtually confident that tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year I will be able to walk into a Walgreens and buy as much of it as I want.

The more forward thinking of you might say “But, in a nuclear war (or similar event) the availability of just about everything would be affected, therefore all goods are Uncertain Goods.” Strictly speaking, this is true. This is where evidence and history come into play. Best I can tell, we haven’t had a nuclear war lately, nor have we had a global failure of the dental floss crop due to floss weevils. Additionally, I’ve heard nothing about dental floss prohibitions, taxes, confiscations, panic buying, distribution chain failures, and that sort of thing. To my way of thinking, dental floss is not an Uncertain Good. Oh, I stock up on it….but not because I worry about it’s availability, but rather because if I can spend fifty bucks and get a few years worth of the stuff tucked away, that’s one less thing to deal with.

Contrast the dental floss with, say, plutonium. Plutonium is an exceptionally Uncertain Good. I can walk out of my house and get dental floss from a half dozen different places without even needing to drive. Plutonium , on the other hand, is something you really have to make an appointment for. Even in ‘normal’ times your ability to obtain it is challenging. Throw some political or social turmoil in the mix and it gets even harder.

These are, obviously, two extreme examples but I think they make the point. An Uncertain Good is one whose future availability cannot be guessed at. Here are some items that, in my opinion, are Uncertain Goods: prescription meds, hard-to-find car parts, clothing in special-order sizes, odd batteries, certain chemicals or mixtures of chemicals, etc. Basically, if the only way you can obtain something is to special order it off Amazon or pay for it with a credit card, it’s an Uncertain Good. (Note that I said ‘the only way’…the fact that you buy your TP off Amazon to save money doesn’t mean it’s an uncertain good. You could buy TP at your local grocery. If you live in Nowhere, WY and you need a forward mounting bracket for the fusebox in your ’89 Saab you’re pretty much only going to get that through Amazon or some other internet contortion…thus, it’s an Uncertain Good.)

Take me, for example. I wear shoes that are, nominally, EEEEE width. (Yes, I have wide feet. I can walk on snow like a moose.) My only source for shoes is a couple specialty outfits on the internet. Thus, for me, shoes that fit are an Uncertain Good. So, I keep several pair on hand.

Alright, we’ve established what an Uncertain Good is. Your idea of what it is and mine may differ due to our regional differences, but, broadly, we should be on the same page. Now it’s a matter of scale.

Relative Uncertainty

Take my 5E shoes and the plutonium, for example. Both are Uncertain Goods, we’ve established that. Now, which of the two is more likely to be difficult to obtain at a later date? Probably the plutonium, right? So in a priority-based system of acquisition, I’d probably want to score the plutonium before I score another pair of black walking shoes. Both goods are uncertain, but one is likely (IMHO) to be more uncertain than the other.

Quantity

Ok, so we know what Uncertain Goods are, and we know that some Uncertain Goods are more uncertain than others. So why do I need several hundred G3 magazines? Or a dozen ARs?

Both of those items are Uncertain Goods with a history of threatened availability, and a near constant threat of diminished future availability. Or, put into simple terms, they banned ’em before and they want to ban them again.

Okay..so they’re an Uncertain Good, with a definite likelihood of future availability being a problem, but why do you need so many???

I have another 25 years on my meter. We’ve established these Uncertain Goods may become unavailable at any moment. So…if tomorrow I couldn’t call up Cheaper Than Dirt and order more, and what I had in the closet had to last me the rest of my life, would I feel comfortable with that? Well…a lot of stuff can happen in 25 years, so I’d want plenty to cover things like loss, breakage, confiscation, abandonment, theft, trade, gifting, and ‘just in case’. When you look at it in those terms, five magazines for your Beretta 92 when your’re forty years old is not a ‘lifetime supply’. In fact, it’s laughably short-sighted.

The Matt Foley suvivalists (You know, the ones who think all you need to survive the apocalypse is a Mosin Nagant and a vaaaaaaan down by the riverrrrrrr.) are aghast at the notion of spending money, but if your career goals go beyond being a WalMart greeter and complaining about ‘the rich’ full-time, you can afford such things. The secret to being able to afford things like guns designed after World War 2, food that isn’t stored in 2-liter pop bottles, and housing that doesn’t have a license plate holder, is to complain less about people who have more money than you and start doing what it takes to become someone who has more money than you.

The paradigm I use is: if I could not get any more of these [items] tomorrow, would I be comfortable with the amount I currently have. I’ts not any more complicated than that.. When I buy supplies and items to enhance my survivability, I’m thinking on the long term. Even a ‘personal’ EOTWAWKI like a job loss or health issue would benefit from such planning… its one less thing to worry about.

Obviously, there will be a couple factors to consider – cost, storage, expiration, opportunity cost, etc. I wouldn’t buy a lifetime supply of Toyota Tacomas because of cost, I wouldn’t buy a lifetime supply of drinking water because of storage issues, and I wouldn’t buy a lifetime supply of bananas because of expiration. But, something like, say, toothpaste? Dental floss? MagLites? Blankets? Lantern wicks? I’d have no problem with several dozen in storage.

So there you have it. Next time you want to comment and say “You have one Blastomatic 500, why do you need fifteen magazines for it” you’ll have your answer. And maybe the rubric of “if I could not get any more of these [items] tomorrow, would I be comfortable with the amount I currently have” might prove useful to you. But, regardless, those are the reasons and logic behind why I buy as much as I do of some items.