Shortages, unavailability and outright “we haven’t had those for a while now” are usually the hallmarks of Something Going On. Usually it takes place immediately before or during a Big Event. Much like trying to buy snow shovels right before a blizzard or bottled water during a hurricane.

The two biggest examples of shortages that I am aware of taking place right now are a) ammo and b) FDF (freeze dried foods).

Anyone who is looking for cheap .223 and (esp.) 7.62×39 can tell you that it’s fairly hard to find at the moment. I have heard many rumours and only a few of them seem plausible.

• AK/AR ammo, like Wolf, is being diverted to fill overseas demand and contracts due to the war (given the huge amounts of 7.62×39 being found in Iraqi bunkers this seems unlikely, although logistically it may make sense to simply order in containers full of ammo rather than try and coordinate bringing it in piecemeal from across the war zone.)
• AK ammo, like Wolf, is being used to fill huge contracts with the US military to be used for foreign-weapons (meaning “AK47”) familiarization training with troops here in the US before they ship out (This seems very plausible to me.)
• The largest importer is tangling with BATFE/other agencies and that’s slowing it down. (Heard one person ‘in the biz’ mention this but that doesn’t explain the lack of ‘no name’ ammo out there.)
• Increased fuel costs have led to prohibitively high shipping costs and that is affecting imports.

Please don’t add your own theory or facts about this…my point isn’t about why theres a shortage. My point is that there exists a shortage for some reason.

FDF is also in the ‘backordered’ category these days…at least as packaged in #10 cans. The guys at Mountain House tell me that after Katrina, product demand spiked and then calmed down a bit but is now high enough again to result in backorders. Cause? Beats me. Im guessing bird flu hype and continued Katrina aftermath.

Will these shortages end? Of course…nature abhors a vacuum and so does business. As long as theres folks wanting cases of FDF and 7.62×39 theres going to be someone willing to fill that need. In the meantime this is an excellent example of why you stockpile this stuff when the sun is shining, the paychecks are steady and all is right in the universe. “Don’t wait until you are thirsty to dig a well”, etc, etc, etc.

I’m doing ok..I’ve got a good stash of .308 and 7.62×39 in the bunker…not as much as I’d like (it never is, y’know?) but its enough to handle anything short of a Somalia-type of infrastructure collapse. Plenty of #10 cans of Mountian House but these shortages definitely make me want to stock up on more when they become available again.

On the other side of the equation, now is an outstanding time to stock up on 8×57 ammo and 7.62x54R guns & ammo. The Mosin Nagant rifles are dealering out for less than $75 each and a case of ammo is cheap enough to get a gun and ammo for less than $125. Order it through Century Arms and pay flat rate shipping for it…a huge savings when youre shipping 70# of ammo across country. These guns won’t be around much longer….the Yugo SKS’ are starting to dry up and the cheap Nagants won’t be far behind. For a little over a hundred bucks you can have a rifle and a case of ammo to stash away.

There are a few goodies that we all need to stock that are impossible to manufacture ourselves or to find multiple sources for… FDF is usually limited to just 2 or 3 manufacturers. Same thing for lithium batteries, quality radio gear, etc, etc. Some items, like knives, for example, are available from so many different quality makers that a shortage of one manufacturer doesn’t mean much to you. If Buck is out, get Gerber, or Becker, or Glock, or Remington, or Cold Steel, or CK&T, or Spyderco, or…. Get the idea? But some products just don’t have that many alternates. FDF is a very good example of that. Batteries are a good example…I like lithium AA batts for my smaller gear but AFAIK theres only one or two brands offering them. I can get alkaline AA from anywhere but lithiums…that’s another story. Im sure if you sat down and thought it out carefully you could think of other necessary gear/products that have a similar bottleneck.

Obviously one of the biggest possibilities when it comes to a shortage is firearms. They can be made unavailable, literally, with a stroke of the pen. Don’t think so? Think about the 1986 prohibition on new machineguns for civilians and where prices and availability went afterwards. Also OEM (‘factory’) parts can be hamstrung almost as easily. So if you don’t have a spare copy of your favorite gun, at least get some spare barrels, springs and other parts…and for Crom’s sake get another couple of magazines, will ya?. Ammo is also an easy target, so to speak…during the LA Riots the local government there suspended the sale of ammo and guns. If you were out of #4 buck for your 870 you better hope the looters will be sympathetic to your plight.

If you really think youre going to be able to buy what you need when you need it you may be in for an unpleasant surprise. When the power goes out don’t expect to be able to wander down to the local stop-n-rob and pick up a pack of Duracells.

So, todays project, mi amigos y amigas, is to think about what kind of shortage would cause you some grief right now and then go out and negate that problem by stocking up as best you can… take the hundred bucks you were gonna use for steaks, beer and a movie this weekend and buy something a little more lasting and a lot more useful….

Schools Told to Prepare for Bird Flu

The nation’s schools, recognized incubators of respiratory diseases among children, are being told to plan for the possibility of an outbreak of bird flu. Federal health leaders say it is not alarmist or premature for schools to make preparations, such as finding ways to teach kids even if they’ve all been sent home.

Best way to prepare the public for something and avoid a panic? Get them used to the idea of something. Lets say that scientists discover little green men on Mars. Knowing that just coming out and announcing that will cause all sorts of wild episodes from the public, they build up to it…they’ll start with ‘mars may have supported life’, then move to ‘possible evidence of life found’, massage that for a while and then go with ‘life still may exist’, get people used to the idea that Mars might have something on it, go through a few more generations of ‘might,could,possibly’ and then cuminate with ‘Ambassador Molari will be at the UN Thursday for a treaty signing’.

Maybe its the same thing here…they know its going to happen and they know its going to cause ‘panic’ amongst the population…so they warm us up to get us used to the idea that its ‘remotely possible’, then ‘unlikely’, moving onto ‘possible’ and , as Gale norton just announced, ‘likely’. Thus, when it does happen we can all say ‘oh, I saw this on the news last year its not a big deal’.

Bird flu as a non-event? I dont think it’ll be anything like the 1918 Flu pandemic but it doesnt have to be to make everyones lives a bit more interesting (thats ‘interesting’ in the Chinese sense.) As Bin Laden showed, a strike against a countries economy is as good, if not better, than a strike against its population.

Moral: be prepared.

I usually don’t post much about bird flu because I dont really need to..you can see articles about it everywhere. Someone pointed out to me that even if it doesnt ‘jump’ to humans theres still going to have to be a massive cull of fowl. The practical upshot of thismeans that if you like chicken and have a deep freeze, now is the time to stock up. Between mad cow, bird flu and who knows what else its start to not leave alot of options for us carnivores. And before someone suggests cannibalism, thats the most likely candidate for tainted meat.

Even in countries that have/are experiencing bird flu there doesnt appear to have been much of a panic. On the other hand, few of those countries had a population that travels internally as much as this country. NY-to-LA, Chicago-to-Denver, Florida-to-Phoenix, all those traveller just doing regular travel, let alone holiday travel, are all happy little vectors.

(shrug) Have food, have water, have ammo, have fuel…bolt the doors, pull the blinds and hermit for a month or two.

Broing post about shooting the .308

A generous guest picked me up a package of CCI BR2 Benchrest Primers and a box of Hornady 168 gr. A-Max. So, I figured it was time to assemble the best handloads I could, using top-notch components, and see if my CZ could do any better than it has.

Boring, technical reloading geekery follows

Had a disappointing experience at the range the other day. I decided to take the CZ out for a spin. I wanted to shoot off some new Lapua cases so I could then necksize them. When I got to the range it was bitterly cold and windy. My first five shot group at 100 yards was great – 1 1/16″… just a hair over one inch. I was pleased. Next group 1.5″, then 1.75″…the next several groups were all between 1.5 and 2.5″. I had no idea what was going on. I checked my stock screws, scope mounts, scope rings, and anything else that might rattle loose and affect accuracy. No luck. Only thing I can come up with is that it was just so bloody cold that I was having trouble feeling the trigger and I was probably shivering and not noticing its effect on things. Additionally, the cold might have made me tense/relax various muscle groups that affected accuracy.

Dunno.

This week is looking better, weatherwise, so Im going to head to the range and try again later this week. On the bright side, my LMI buddy brought his Rem. 700 .308 with its bazillion power scope and I edged out his group by 1/16″…and he’s a very, very good rifle shot. So, I felt a little better.
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Someone elsewhere was wondering what the girlfriend and I keep in her truck for emergencies. Well, usually we have a truckbox mounted in the back although I took it off to free up some space and haven’t put it back. Usually, the contents of the vehicle include:
Flectar parka and liner rolled up into a football-sized bundle
Bottled water
Standard commercial 72-hour bag
Crowbar
First Aid kit
Sleeping bag
Flashlight and batteries
SKS and 240 rounds of ammo on stripper clips
Misc. spare ammo
Maps
FRS radios
And a few other things that escape me at the moment..

On long (+100 miles) roadtrips I’ll also put a 5-gallon can or two of gas in the back…just in case. And I also bring my Tactical Tailor bag which has my usual everyday gear in it which gives us a bit more redundancy and a few other things. Contrary to what you may think, if youre on a paved road in Montana your not going to be out there for five days if you get stuck. Theres always some traffic. On the other hand, taking a county road or logging road could leave you up to your own devices for a day or two before another vehicle comes along. Really, more than anything else, you need to be prepared to walk to the nearest house or paved road. Odds are that the most likely problem youre going to have will be one where your vehicle is in a ditch or by the side of the road and you need to hoof it down the road until you get to help or help gets to you. And if you think a cellphone alleviates that problem you really need to check a map of this state some time.
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2006 is almost 1/6th done with already. Tempus fugit. Not much time until elections…well, yeah, theres about two years but that’s not a lot of time when you need to buy many expensive things. I still need gobs more Glock, AR and AK mags. Should play it smart and get a handful of stripped lowers too. And if youre smart, mi amigos, you’ll do the same.

My current kerosene heater has been acting poorly lately…its just age and wear taking its toll. On the other hand, I’ve had it almost 13 years so I figure its done its service admirably.

Anyway, since its the season for end-o-winter clearances I headed up to Lowes and Home Despot. HD had one kero heater left and was selling 5-gallon cans of fuel for about $29. A quick trip across the street (god bless competitive markets) to Lowes showed heaters and all related materials (except kero) 50% off. Wicks were $5 down from $10, hand pumps were $1 and the heater I saw was marked down to $64.50 from $130.

DynaGlo Models RMC-95-C4 and -C5..and I can see no difference between the two. both are 1.9 gallon tanks, 12 hour runtime, 23k btu…..

Sadly, because of environmental and other legislation and rules, the really razoo heaterslike Toyosun are no longer imported. (Or at least, not the really good models.) But most modern kero heaters are pretty much identical.

So, if youre looking to replace or upgrade, head down to Lowes and Home Despot while the sales are going on.

Ar15.com and ,Rawles’ both had reposts of an after action report (AAR) from some hurricane refugees. It was pretty much what Ive been reading over the last six months…taking 30 hours to cover what normally took eight hours, closed gas stations, etc, etc. The disturbing part was about how when they were refueling their vehicle the people involved were close to being robbed for their fuel. The description mentions having to stand there with pistol in hand while fuelling and even the deterrent effect of that was sketchy.

As we all now, desperate people sometimes do things that defy good sense, and unarmed people trying to rob obviously armed people are one of those things.

So, I was wondering to myself, whats the solution. Its easy to say ‘shoot the first guy that comes too close after being warned’ but when push comes to shove I think there’ll still be reluctance to actually do that.

I figured there were a few options. In no particular order –

Refuel in an out-of-the-way area or in a way that obscures what youre doing from most observers. Perhaps when youre at ¼ tank you pull off an exit and drive a mile or two down the road and into a driveway or to the side of the road in some trees and refuel that way. Drawback is that from what I read, many exits were blocked off by the cops for various reasons. This means youre only choice is to refuel on the side of the interstate in full view of everyone else, who will no doubt be jealous of your forethought and wonder why you shouldn’t share with them since its unfair that you have fuel and they don’t.

A subterfuge would have been to have two people hold ponchos up to screen the activities of someone fuelling. To the casual observer it might appear to simply be someone taking a dump by the side of the road. Pretty sure this wouldn’t work though. Also require more people than might be available.

Neatest option would be some way to refuel covertly designed into the vehicle. In the case of a pickup truck, perhaps a secondary fuel port on the inside of the truck bed. Then a person could sit in the bed, have the fuel can below the line of sight and use a bulb-type pump to transfer fuel. Or simply run a large diameter length of tubing into the tank and have the free end routed over the gunwale and into the bed of the truck. Drape a sleeping bag or something over the side to conceal the tubing and it may simply appear that youre lounging in the back of your truck when in actuality your discretely pumping fuel into your tank below everyone elses line of sight.

Travelling at night might make a little more sense since you’d have cover of darkness to refuel and perhaps even less traffic to deal with. However, darkness brings its own problems too.

Finally, a dedicated non-lethal shotgun loaded with a blank or two and then some rubber buckshot. If things get ugly you fire a blank or two into the air or ground and if that doesn’t work you start bouncing rubber buck off the tarmac and into legs or just aim directly at the offending persons legs. If that doesn’t dissuade them, drop the gun and transition to pistol. The major drawback to this is, of course, that once you start pulling the trigger, even if it’s a blank or nonlethal round, someone might respond in kind.

A few people replied to the initial post suggesting that an overwhelming show of force would be the answer. Someone fuels while someone stands guard with their tweaked out M4gery. I think that some misanthropic opportunists might see this as a challenge and do the old ‘Whaddya gonna do? Shoot me? C’mon tough guy!’ routine and wind up escalating the situation unnecessarily. Tough call. In a pure nukes-have-destroyed-Chicago-NewYork-and-Washington-its-the-end-of-the-world scenario you probably could get away with simply warning someone to leave you alone and then shooting them if they press the issue. In a temporary disruption though…well, things will be back to normal in a week and it’ll catch up to you.

Of course, you could also just leave early and avoid a good portion of this. Or you could prepare to stay in place and avoid a good portion of this.

Really, theres no easy answer. Each possible solution has its own particular set of drawbacks.
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Unless Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2008 or Al-Queda nukes Miami, I don’t think the Republicans will win the election. I usually try to keep the political content to a minimum here but I think the current administration has made too many people hostile to them and its going to show at the polls. Unless the GOP clones Reagan and nominate him, I think the 2008 election will give us a Democrat for president.

If I’m wrong, great. I’d be happy to be wrong. But if Im right, then we could be looking at more gun ban situations. Sure, a Democrat President hamstrung by a Republican House and Senate majority might result in the kind of political stalemate we can all benefit from but Im not willing to take that chance.

In preparation for 2008 I am advocating:

• Magazines, magazines and more magazines (Those $2 HK91 mags may be a good investment) Esp. Glock, AR, AK and FAL mags.
• Stripped AR lowers. The remaining parts are uncontrolled. 
• .50 BMG guns and ammo if youre into that sort of thing
• 7.62×39 ammo and any other caliber that a shut-off of the imported stuff would cause you to drastically shoot less. (8mm., 7.62×25, 5.45×39, etc.)
• Powder and primers in case ATFE gets a wild hair to classify them as bombmaking gear and start requiring licenses. They already did this for some model rocketry motors.
• If youre of the mind to get an FFL of some type (C&R, 06, etc) get it now.

I don’t think that the non-gun aspects of preparedness would be affected nearly as much as the gun aspect. Freezedried foods will still be available, as will fuel cans, MagLites, sleeping bags, water containers, etc, etc.

http://www.mobilemag.com/content/100/313/C5234/

A step in the right direction, the foot-powered Freeplay Freecharge Weza portable energy source is the ideal way to keep your mobile device’s battery, and your waistline, healthier.

The compact Weza weighs in at 20.5 lb and will be available next March to those with an extra $294.95 kicking around.
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Must. Get. One.

Specs can be found at Freeplays website.
7 amp/hour battery but for my minimal needs of lighting and radios, it might be adequate.