Tag Archives: observations

Life continues apace

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It’s been a rough few days here at Casa Zero. Just that time of year. However, I’ve got some stuff to do in my civilian life that’s gonna keep my busy for the next few days so…amuse yourself with 15+ years of posts. I’m sure there’s something in there somewhere that you haven’t read yet.

But…some observations….

Guns and ammo continue to be either unobtainable at reasonable prices, or obtainable at ‘fetch the Crisco’ prices. I sealed the deal on guns, ammo, and mags a long time ago so I’m not really concerned for myself. I do, however, admit that I had bought more ‘speculative’ guns and ammo so I could be one of those people making bank on the current demand.
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I was talking to one of the flunkies at the post office today. He’s switching roles from front counter to back room sorting. I asked why. He said he started off enjoying dealing with people but as of late has decided that people are “80% mean” and he doesn’t want to deal with people anymore. (Hey, disgruntled postal worker! Good thing ammo is hard to find.) He said that between Kung Flu and everything else, people are getting mean. I pointed out that people aren’t ‘getting mean’. Rather, the current situation is simply bringing out the person they always were.Good people, the mensches, remain mensches. Bad people remain bad or get worse. Nothing brings out who a person really is like adversity. And adversity usually has an element of fear, and fear is what makes Mr Rogers into Mr T. This is why in times of crisis…war,famine,depression,whatever…you have to be cautious. Scared people are dangerous people and they don’t even think they’re being dangerous.

So, the postal guy realized that most folks are not intrinsically happy, shiny people.

Welcome to my outlook.
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Although I’ve been light in posting lately that doesn’t mean I’m not still diligently working on keeping up my end of the Ant-Grasshopper paradigm. Still socking away food and supplies, although that pace has slowed down considerably since I went so hardcore on the subject a few weeks back. Now it’s mostly fine-tuning and maintenance…that is to say, I’m starting to rotate older stock into everyday use and replacing it with newer stock. For example, I pulled half a dozen bars of soap out of storage, moved them to the bathroom for use, and then replaced them in storage with newer product. (Because, unsurprisingly, soap can kinda ‘go bad’. It ossifies. Thats why I vacuum seal the soap I put into storage.)

But, by and large, I am…okay….with the situation here in terms of preparedness. Certainly I am far, far better off than most of the sheep out there. Somewhere right now there’s a 30-something with a crushing student debt, a car loan, sharing an apartment with two other people, and working in a Verizon store where their hours just got cut. It’s been a major drag most of the time getting there, but I’m extremely grateful to me for not being in that situation. Tomorrow might be different…anything can happen. But if it does turn to crap tomorrow I’ll have at least a couple tricks up my sleeve to improve my situation…money in the bank, food in the cupboards, gas in the tank, etc. And thats pretty much what preparedness is, no?
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Posting will be short and sporadic, if at all, for the next few days. Go outside and do a ruck march, practice your shooting, or something.

Scenes from a gun shop

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Locus: Bob Wards & Son. Regional outdoors chain.
Me: Can I see that AR in the rack please?
Him: Here you go. [hands me carbine]
Me: [Looking at tag] I don’t see a price on this. How much is it?
Him: Hang on, I have to go back and ask. [Leaves and comes back]
Him: $2600*
Me: You guys don’t put the prices on there?
Him. We’re not putting prices on any of the tags right now.
Me: Because the prices are constantly changing?
Him: Well…Yeah.

I want you to roll that thought over in your mind for a second. Seriously…think about the possible (although possibly unlikely) implications of that sort of pricing. In retail, the price you charge is not always based on some factor of the price you paid…its based on the price to replace what you sell. If I bought an AR for $400 last year, and I normally sell for, say, 25% over, I sell that AR for $500. And when I sell it, I order the replacement for $400. Cut to today: I paid $400 a year ago, but replacing it will cost me $1000. So do I sell it for $500? No, of course not, I have to sell it with a price that reflects the fact the next one will cost me $1000. And if I don’t know, with reasonable certainty, what the next one will cost me…well…then I can’t really be sure what to charge. Saw this at the gold and silver shop earlier this year.

Reminds me of the hyperinflation stories where prices were changed every hour or so to reflect the devaluing currency. In this case, it’s to reflect perceived availability.

So what you’re seeing is a level of uncertainty that is so pronounced that a middlin’-sized retailer is willing to look like a jerk and not put prices on stuff. That should give you pause to think about what you need (or want) and how willing you are to do what it takes to get it (assuming you don’t already  have it).

Are ARs and ammo available? Of course they are. Everything is available to you for the right price. If you have enough money you can buy yourself a nuclear artillery shell and go hold a city hostage somewhere…with the proper amount of greenbacks there is nothing you can’t buy. Guns and ammo just aren’t available at prices you want to pay.

Between Covid, ‘race discussions’, and an upcoming election, this is the worst possible time in a long while to try and stock up on guns and ammo. This is why, since the begining of this blog those many years ago, I have always harped on you to buy the things that will be easiest to render scarce.

My point, if there is one, is that even in a relatively bucolic minimally-affected place like Montana, the fallout of ‘the Covid tax’ and it’s attendant effect on the various markets (food, guns, metals, etc) cannot be avoided. Succinctly, unless you are willing to part with a rather larger dose of cash than you normally would, you are not going to be getting your boogaloo guns & ammo anytime soon. So I hope you already had them.

* = Colt-made modern repro of XM177. This is why Colt is not a going concern, folks.

Beef – it’s what’s not for dinner

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I was in my local Albertson’s and was doing my usual trawling of the meat department for bargains when I notices that a large amount of ground beef was plastered with the “30%” off stickers. But no “50%”. I inquired at the meat counter and was told that a) meats aren’t getting marked down 50% because the demand is high enough that it will sell at 30% off and b) the 50% is too much of a price cut because of the higher prices they are having to pay these days. That last part made no sense but the guy in the white coat and hairnet isn’t a finance major.

Regardless of the guy’s statement, I can see some of what he’s getting at. No two ways around it, beef prices are up. Ground beef is at prices that, to me, are just ridiculous. Fortunately, chicken is my main go-to for animal protein and I can usually get that on sale for around $1.99/#. But my meat trays, which have been a staple of my freezer stocking program for quite a few years now, are reflecting these new sensibilities. Gone is the 3# “Log” of ground beef that used to make up 1/4 of the tray. And the sirloins which sometimes were part of the tray are now completely gone. Whats left? Pork and chicken. Invariably it’s now some type of sausage, pork steak, chicken legs, and some other cut of pork. In my opinion, not really worth the bother anymore.

Meat tray as it used to be

Another version of the meat tray as it used to be. Note this one is 1/2 beef.

Fortunately, I’ve been stocking the freezer long before this, and chicken is my main choice of meat, so the relative high price/scarcity of beef doesn’t really faze me. But…it is kind of unsettling to think that in a country whose supermarkets were incomprehensible to people from communist countries, we are starting to get the very faintest of whiffs of the kind of supermarket shortages that we always associated with Communist/Socialist states.

Come to think of it, this year is the first time I have ever seen national-level grocery store shortages. We had The Great TP Rush of 2020, and similar runs on things like Rice, pasta, frozen pizzas, and that sort of thing. Sure, we see it when hurricanes and earthquakes occur…but that’s usually a local-level thing. Earlier this year it didn’t matter if you were in Alaska or Alabama, you weren’t gonna get to squeeze any Charmin.

And now, as there is talk of ‘re-lockdowns’, it might be time to make sure that you’ve learned your lesson from earlier this year. And,  by the by, even if there’s not a shortage of [beef/pasta/rice/TP] I can almost guarantee you that there is going to be a shortage of money. I think right now people are holding onto their cash with both hands as they worry about the market, their jobs, etc. Housing prices in my town, which were ridiculously high, have come down slightly as people are deciding that perhaps this isn’t the year to be spending huge money and perhaps it might be better to just hold onto that down payment money until next year…you know…’just in case’.

Its the weekend, so for me it’s time for another $50 towards getting items on the Preponomicon into the green. Go. Buy. Stockpile.

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There’s a link at the top of the column on the right hand of your screen. I think what I’ll probably do is, on an experimental basis for now, post a footer in a random post once a week with a quick link. We’ll see if that doesn’t come across as too crass and self-serving.

More Observations

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I dunno about you, but so far, in this slow-moving apocalypse, I have yet to need to shoot anything or anyone in a directly-related-to-the-pandemic situation. In fact, amongst all the myriad items I (and probably you) put back against that uncertain future, virtually none have gotten taken out of their storage containers. Its starting to look like that for 90% of most disasters you can sum up your preps into two different items – a shoebox full of cash, and some food.

Gasoline? Not only is it still available it is at a markedly lower price than when this whole thing started. How many disasters do you see that make the price of a staple commodity go down?

Food? It’s been about a month since this thing really blew up and most of the shelves at my local grocery are back to normal..including TP and rice. It looks like there’s about a four-week lag for the supply and distribution change to catch up.

Guns and ammo? Yeah, they’ve been hit hard over at the gun shops. But, broadly speaking, I haven’t heard of anyone getting into a shootout with starving cannibal armies yet. In more rural environs, with overstretched departments, there might be some tweakers who are waiting for an opportunity to do some home invasions at remote properties but so far…nothing I’ve heard.

Water? I’ve not heard of anyone having problems with their water supplies.

I’m almost tempted to say that your basic Kung Flu survival needs can be met with a well-stocked freezer and a big-ass box of cash. (And, really, that box of cash is often the secret sauce for most disasters.)

Honestly, I could not have imagined such a global-scale disaster or event that still has all the utilities running as normal and seems so…orderly? Neat? Calm?

To be fair, I’m only going off my own experience here in a Montana city (or town, I suppose, if a population of less than 100,000 counts as a city).

But, thus far, it looks like the best preps have been to have money in the bank (or gun safe).

Key words there, though: thus far. Yeah, no shootouts with opportunistic looters…so far. No around-the-block lines for ground beef…so far. No fistfights at the pumps as cars line up for gas in a blocks-long queue… so far.

And its because of ‘so far’ that we keep the freeze drieds, stabilized fuel, Glocks and ammo, etc, etc.

But, I suspect one of the biggest takeaways from this episode, other than the obvious ‘wash your hands, dammit’ is that having money in the bank or on hand alleviates a large part of the headaches involved in a disaster.

Those Five Recession-Proof Businesses vs The Plague

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I’ve mentioned that this Current Situation is an excellent chance to observe and learn. This is a dress rehearsal for whatever bigger things come down the pike next. If you’ve been watching the news lately, which is rather tough to avoid, we’ve been told that unemployment is rocketing through the roof as people are laid of, furloughed, fired, downsized, or otherwise off the payroll. Makes sense…if a business is closed then there’s no way to pay the employees.

But…some people are not only still getting paid, they’re getting paid more. They are in a position that allows them to continue to have employment in this situation. Let’s examine that.

I read somewhere that people who made it through the tumult of World War Two noted that no matter how bad the situation in the civilian population, certain trades or businesses were able to stay afloat. Broadly, there were five: food, medical, sex, weapons, and entertainment. If you were in a business that was in one of these categories, the odds were better in your favor during recessions, depressions, etc. With various states on lockdowns, people holding onto their money (if they’re smart), and social distancing the order of the day…who is still in business?

Well, the gun and ammo businesses are doing well. Weapons always make people feel, right or wrong, that they have some control over their lives. If you’re in the ammo business or the gun business right now, and you have some inventory, you’re probably doing pretty well. So…thats 1/5th that seems accurate.

Grocers are always going to see people buying from them. Folks have to eat. And, again, as long as they have inventory there will be no supermarket that has sales flatline. Pandemic or no, people wanna eat. (Also folding booze and smokes into this group.) 2/5ths.

Nurses and doctors are probably not short of work right now unless youre something a little more pedestrian and a lot less ER. For example, I don’t think there’s a lot of dentists or podiatrists doing business right now. But you’re an ER, ICU, or flight nurse? Bet you’re getting all the work you want. So, yeah, 3/5ths.

Entertainment? Thats tricky. Mass gatherings are kinda frowned upon right now..concerts, movies, etc, are not doing well. Even if your venue isn’t closed down by .gov edict, no one wants to sit elbow-to-elbow with coughing strangers. So, no, this fifth doesn’t work in this situation.

Sex? Well, with everyone staying at home there’s a rise (ahem) in online porn, toy purchases, cam shows, etc, etc. And, I suppose that for those who make house calls…there might be a consistent demand. 4/5ths.

So out of those five businesses, it looks like four of them will weather this pandemic. Others I’ve noticed: the local gold/silver shop is doing crazy business.

If you work for government, you’re probably also somewhat bulletproof in all this. Certainly if youre a cop or fireman you can expect to keep working.

All in all, this is an interesting subject to watch play out in the real world. If you’re looking for a career or sideline to give you an extra income in all sorts of situations, you might want to look around your neighorhood and see who is open, and how much business theyre doing. If they can make money during a crisis like this, then perhaps its a business worth looking into.

Life in the petri dish

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One of the more amusing and annoying consequences of The Current Situation is that every time I am out in public and feel the urge to cough or sneeze, I have to stifle it or risk am impromptu Salem witch trial.
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If anyone was curious, the Home Depot SKU for those buckets is 084305392411.
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I’m continuing to polish up my existing inventory of necessities. The basics were covered long, long ago. Now it’s just getting the final touches…little things that, while not necessities in any sense, are nice to have to make eating stored food a little more enjoyable….jarred garlic, soy sauce, salsa, etc, etc. One of the things I do need to pick up more of is disposable eatingware…paper plates, plastic tableware, that sort of thing. While this is, for now, a ‘grid up’ disaster it is likely the next one won’t be. Electricity may not be available. Water may be better used for drinking than washing. So…let’s scrap the need to wash dishes and just have a couple hundred paper plates, knives, forks, and spoons on hand.
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The media is, as usual, full of mixed messages. On the one hand, everything is available in copious quantity – shop as usual. On the other hand, we read that some food producers/processors/suppliers are closing up or cutting back as their labor force calls in sick. For some reason I am reminded of the old Soviet joke where the bureaucrat visits the potato farm and asks how things are going:
“Comrade, if we piled up all the potatoes we harvested, they would reach up to god’s ankles.”
Comrade”, the bureaucrat chides, “You know there is no god.”
“Comrade,”, the farmer says, “You know there are no potatoes.

When it comes to news….Doveryai, no proveryai
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So what’s going on here in Zeroland? Not much. Still feeling like my region is in that half-normal,half-not-normal stage. Other than people wearing masks, salad bar sneeze guards everywhere, and lots of marking tape on floors, there doesn’t seem to be too much change. Thus far, this is turning out to be the least dramatic apocalypse I could have imagined…I mean, up until the point I cough up a lung or something.  Sure there are some rough spots…the economic toll isn’t pretty….but so far I haven’t had to hang looters, repel boarders, eat my neighbors, cook over a camp stove, sleep in a sleeping bag, or take a dump in a hole in the ground. First World lifestyle maintained: Achievement unlocked!

But…it’s still early…might not wanna put that Donner Party Cookbook away just yet.

 

Observations

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As many of you, I am sure, have noticed…a good part of my postings aren’t so much about what I’m doing as much as they are about what Im seeing. Couple reasons for that…first of all, I’m fine. I’ve got food, fuel, supplies, etc. So do you. So there’s no need for the back-patting festival of constant posts saying “People were on line for [item] but I had plenty…”.

What I do wind up posting about is the details about how this is all unfolding and what the takeaway from it is. What worked, what didnt, why didnt it work, why did it, what should I have done, what shouldnt I have done, and so forth. In short, we’re in the middle of a global experiment in disaster management, what can we observe and learn from it? Disaster planning rarely gets a global-level real world event to examine, dissect and learn from. Katrina was the benchmark for hurricane preparedness modeling, Kung Flu is going to be the benchmark for how pandemic planning is to be planned. In reality, there’ll be a lot of ‘white papers’, death by PowerPoint, committee’s and hearings, and then very little will actually be accomplished. Bureaucratic inertia. But on an individual level, guys like you and me should be taking notes like crazy. You could probably get a lot of info just from this exercise:

Ask yourself what concerned you most during the crisis. Then ask what would have made you not concerned (or less concerned). Then, for next time, go do/get whatever that thing was that you think would have made you less concerned. Example:

What concerned you? I was worried we wouldn’t have money coming in to pay the bills.
What would had made you less concerned? Having money in the bank.
So for next time: have a large emergency fund saved up

What concerned you? The grocery stores would be devoid of food
What would had made you less concerned? Having a full pantry and freezer
So for next time: build a stockpile of stored food

What concerned you? I’d die because I’m already in poor health
What would had made you less concerned? Having taken better care of myself
So for next time: start what you can to get back into shape and being healthy

You get the idea, I’m sure.

Notably, it’s interesting to see what people rushed out and bought and in what order. According to virtually every source, toilet paper and rice/pasta were the first things erased from the supermarket shelves. It was only after a week or two, presumably when people had time to think, that they started figuring out what else they might want to stock up on.

Those things that the knee-jerk panic buyers bought? Those are things you should plan on becoming virtually instantly unobtainable. Keep plenty of those. As things progressed and people had more time to think, other stuff started disappearing. Noticing what went fast in those early days is a good indication of what you should already have had on hand.

Really forward thinkers got things done that otherwise are now rescheduled. Dental cleanings, vehicle maintenance, in-person banking (loans, mortgages), etc. That was pretty smart and something that didn’t occur to me until later.

Lotsa lessons to be learned in this crisis, guys. Just gotta keep your eyes and brain  open to learning them. Maybe the next pandemic won’t be for another hundred years like the last one, but we just don’t know. In the meantime, we’re getting first-hand real-world examples of how people will respond. Take it all in and use that information to your advantage.

Gear that never will self-actualize

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We’ll start with a hat tip to Tam for this link: I Am a Stryker-X Assault Backpack, and This Airport Lounge Is an Insult

Y’know, I’ve a lovely Tactical Tailor 3-Day Assault Pack that I have been slinging around almost everyday for something like 13 or 15 years. Actually, lemme blog it up…ah..3/19/2004 is when my TT bag reported for duty. So..about 14 years.

Anyway….

I have never assaulted anything (except good taste), if I did I would hope it wouldnt take three days, and if it was going to take three days I’d imagine I’d need more gear than what fits in a 3-Day Assault Pack. But the simple fact is that while I hope I never have to live the zombie-apocalypse lifestyle, gear that is designed to do so will more than adequately meet my day-to-day needs and be able to handle that sudden, unexpected hiccup in societal cohesion.

In short, if it’s good enough to climb the mountains in Afghanistan its good enough to sling over my shoulder while wandering downtown Montana.

Same for military surplus stuff. Someone spent a zillion dollars to develop product X, they built enough of them to get the per-piece price down to almost nothing, and then they tested the design to be durable enough to win a war. Why wouldn’t I take advantage of that?

Broadly speaking, there are only two drawbacks to overkill when it comes to gear: weight and price. Crap thats built to survive Ragnarok is not going to be cheap. And it ain’t gonna be light. But what it will do is give you exponentially better chances of keeping your act together when that 0.1% chance of disaster hits. Plus, that stuff literally lasts a lifetime. Buy once, cry once, and rock on.

I’ve paid some stupid money for gear in the past and….every single piece of expensive gear I paid a lot of money for is still with me today, functioning 100%, and has never let me down.

So just because you’re not planning to jump out of a helicopter and into a sangar in Sangar doesn’t mean you don’t want the high-speed,low-drag, high-price,low-discount gear. Life is short, it’s shorter with low-quality critical gear.