Hazlitt, in his outstanding book “Economics In One Lesson“, said ““…the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.”
That follow-through, the tracing of consequences through all the branches, is really what I recommend doing in these interesting times. If gas prices go up, for example, the result is…you pay more at the pumps. Thats the easy sound-bite answer. But follow the consequences further…transport costs go up, those costs get passed on to consumers, prices go up to make up the difference, everything costs more, less goods may get shipped, less goods shipped means shortages or ‘supply issues’, etc, etc. And the ‘more at the pumps’ translates into less money for food, bills, medicine, etc. Our world is a sweater that unravels pretty quickly when you start pulling a couple threads.
There’s a whole economic ‘butterfly effect‘ that probably needs to be examined. For most of us, the most immediate effect we’ve seen is a rise in gas prices (and a dramatic price drop in Ukrainian real estate). But there will be tons of other consequences that, in hindsight, will seem obvious. Economic warfare between nations will spawn all sorts of collateral and retaliatory consequences. Remember the oil embargo in ’73?
The point I’m trying to make is that, as competent survivalists, it would be a good idea to sit down in a quiet room and just think for awhile.How does whats going on in Europe affect your day-to-day existence? How will sanctions affect it? Retaliatory cyberwarfare? Nutjob self-appointed ‘warriors for [Ukraine/Putin/China/religion]‘? And that’s in addition to the bizarre and draconian experiences that Wuhan Flu Mk! & II have given us.
Even if you’re not a survivalist, you can still use your rational mind to examine the current situation and, I would think, come to the same conclusion: now is a good time to make sure you’ve increased your resilience. Resilience to a job loss, resilience to the toilet paper aisle being empty, resilience to $8/# ground beef, resilience to ‘temporary’ power outages, resilience to ‘peaceful demonstrations’, resilience to having to stand on line for…anything.
I’m very curious to see how all this shakes out. Nuclear WWIII? A virtual impossibility, IMHO. The minute Putin gives the order to launch I think his generals will take matters into their own hands and there’ll be an announcement that Comrade Putin has succumbed to the stresses of his position and is taking a medically mandated respite. Plus, there are several precedents for ‘cooler heads prevailing’.
But I’m usually wrong in my predictions, so…there’s that.
I’ve been wondering what the effect will be on animal food. While we raise chickens (mostly for eggs) & rabbits (for meat), we don’t grow their food. Last year was horrible for hay because of the drought – hoping this year is better.
Don’t forget that fertilizer was screaming up in price and down in availability over the past year already; this will make it worse.
Bonnie as Russia and Ukraine are almost a third of the World’s supply of Wheat, a good bit of corn and almost 40% of the Fertilizer and Fertilizer materials (Shocking Congress isn’t a supplier but I digress) there will be 1st order food shortages. No fertilizer makes for poor harvests.
That said 2nd order effects will be grains commonly used for Animal feed will be sold at a better price for Human Use.
So even now my Tractor Supply has almost half the last years pallets of animal feed available at seriously higher prices EVEN before Ukraine due to the lousy crops last 2 years.
It’s time to think really hard HOW Grandmom fed those critters before Purina Rabbit Chow came to be. Chicken tractors help, My German Grandmom’s large compost piles iron raked daily was a lot of FUN to watch the chickens storm it for the fresh bugs. Rabbits eat a lot of things, sad to say YOU must protect them from things Rabbits will get sick or dead from. Wild Hares know not to eat Mt Laural for example but a domestic rabbit in the cage will chow down.
Because of that I do NOT recommend the idea of a Rabbit Tractor although some folks claim they are a good idea. Diseases from parasites and eating the wrong things can destroy your does’ litters and sicken-kill your rabbits.
Root crops was a lot of what my Grandmom grew for her chickens and rabbits.
She could make an awesome Hasenpfeffer from an older rabbit.
Agreed. I have already experimented with beets and turnips for animal feed. Chickens and goats eat it up. I already grow Painted Mountain flint corn for meal and flour in the kitchen. After I save seed for next years crop. The rest gets ground for chicken scratch. Goats should not have more than a cup of corn per day from what I’ve read. Just about any root vegetable and their greens can be used for animal feed (mangel beets). Of course manicured lawns may become hay fields I’ve stopped breeding Boer goats, but may have to rethink getting another buck if things continue on. Plenty of neighbors raise beef.
Here’s a great article by Mike Sherlock explaining (to the West’s surprise) that our nemesis Russia still “holds a lot of very important cards”.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/putin-strikes-back-against-sanctions-what-price-is-anyone-willing-to-pay-to-stop-him
Whether anyone likes it or not, Russia controls a vast fraction of the world’s wheat, fertilizer, and fossil fuels. Europeans are thinking very hard about this fact right now.
For want of a nail. The energy supply and costs is the base root of everything in this modern interconnected global economy. All things will now inflate in costs, repeatedly for a long time into the future. Advanced tactical buying of things is now an investment strategy. Having two+ years worth of vehicle oil and filter change or other service parts on hand in your own garage is strategic planning. Doing the work yourself is good tactics, for many reasons. Another silly plan of mine is to just replace out tires and the spare on the truck. They are still o.k. with plenty of serviceability life. However that commodity item is oil and import dependant, along with a timeline of serviceability window. Replace now and I pushed forward the expected service life 5 to 7 years on an expensive and high priority necessary commodity. Don’t want to lose a war just because my tire blew, due to procrastinating and postponing the replacement expense. Stay frosty out there.
Keep the old tires in a cool dark place in case you need to put them back on.
Something to think about is inbreeding. Even my Grandmother would trade for a new rooster and new buck from friends.
She was ruthless about eliminating any defective critters. No “cute warped looking bunny pets” as those bad genes were bad for the next generation. That included does that destroyed more than one litter of kits.
Trusted family (*sigh* since propaganda has so many divided like Civil War) Trusted Friends, Skills, tools, seeds (to include critters) and Faith will get you through the Greater Depression, when your mostly electronic money is trapped.
Grandmother also told me of church going farmers coming home to thugs robbing and burning the barns just before her parents fled Germany during Weimar Germany Hyperinflation. Even in the late 70’s in Golden CO she fretted leaving the farm with NOBODY at home.
Know your neighbors, 90% of your trouble will come from 20 miles from your home is an old truism.
A quick way to determine a taker from a user is give them a hand at some small outdoor project, like helping them shovel snow. If they come over to help you later that’s promising. If not, you may try one more time if you think they have promise. Avoid the angry man as Proverbs 22: 24Do not make friends with an angry man, and do not associate with a hot-tempered man, 25or you may learn his ways and entangle yourself in a snare.… Many a Fedboi plays the angry man to entrap people and angry people in general are NOT good friends material.
Don’t mistake acquaintances for Friends. If you have more than a small handful of friends, you need to reevaluate what you think of as friends. Real friends help each other through hard times, fake friends steal when things get bad.
Today’s HIGH Prices are tomorrows Sale Prices. Invest in yourself to become a producer. Plant potatoes its a good start. BTW chickens can and do enjoy eating potatoes cooked or raw but don’t feed them sun greened potatoes it’s a bit toxic. Rabbits love most root crops (shocking, eh? LOL) but research NOW what they cannot eat as they WILL Eat things dangerous to them.
I always find it humorous how many people, even generally smart people, fail to look at second, and third order results of an event. It would seem that our world of instant gratification has made its way into our thought processes as well. Most people only look at the immediate results. Or maybe they are just too fearful to look at the bigger picture because it seems like it is just to overwhelming.
One thing about the Wuhan flu, whether you’re a vaxxer, anti-vaxxer, pro-freedom, or whatever – it has sure made it pretty plain to the world which people live in constant fear. All you have to do is look at the guy, in the middle of a park, all by himself, wearing two masks, and you can be pretty sure that this is a person that is filled/ruled by fear, and not just of Covid.
Choose to be free my friends. Part of being a “prepper” is the choice to live without fear, because we are prepared.
An example of second order effects:
Yesterday I talked with my local gravel supplier; they said prices are jumping due to fuel costs and encouraged me to order what I need now.
Also, buy things in the off season if you have a way to store them; less demand means better prices if the product is available.
Commander Zero, I appreciate your analytical and writing skills, rare these days. Coming from Illinois I would compare them to John Kass, whom I’ve read for quite awhile. Fortunately Ive been able to read from afar as I moved to AZ right when C19 began. But to the main point of my response, I take a great deal of solace in that I believe in The Father, Jesus Christ and the Holy Spirit, and continue to live my life in their spirit. We”ll all leave this world sooner or later and I’m OK with that. All I can do before that is pass on some things I’ve gathered in this life and wisdom to my family that will actually listen. We live in difficult times that will probably get worse before better, but I thank God for being blessed with it regardless. These days are what makes us.
Commodity inflation from Thursday to Friday was something like 4% overall.
But no more mean tweets,so there’s that.
Hazlitt should be required reading for high schoolers much less anyone with IQ over bathwater. May I recommend John Stuart Mill(smartest man ever?) but hard to read (mental calisthenics).