Article – Scientists used computer to predict exactly when society will collapse in 21st century

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Scientists during the 1970s used a computer and observations on changing trends to predict exactly when society would collapse.

The scientific observation was carried out by a group of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) more than five decades ago.

According to their findings, the prediction made was that society would crumble near the midpoint of the 21st century in 2040.

…….

In 2009, a different team of researchers did a similar study which American Scientist published.

They issued that the model’s results were “almost exactly on course some 35 years later” – with a few appropriate assumptions.

The predictions have not been invalidated and appear to be quite on target.

As I’ve said, more than once, unless you’re the guy who actually has his finger on the Big Red Button no one can say with any real authority when the end of the world is going to happen. It can happen over a length of time that is measured in years, or it can happen in a literal instant/ No one knows. Of course, you can observe events and come to your own conclusions about the likelihood of things happening and when, but normally … no, no one knows.

While I recognize that at any moment the Yellowstone volcano can go off, an asteroid may hit, or Wuhan Flu may evolve into a species-killer….the horse I’ve got money on is ‘Economic turbulence’ to win.

Fortunately, many perperations cover multiple forms of apocalypse….whether its the return of Xenu, a comet strike, or invasion by China you’ll still need the basics like food, water, ammo, meds, etc. So, while one size does not fit all, there is a lot of cross-apocalypse preps to be tucked away.

I’ve been hearing about the end of the world my entire adult life…it was the Soviets, Y2k, Bird flu, SARS, terrorism, peak oil, etc, etc….and yet I’m still here. But even a broken calendar is right once a year so…I keep living that quiet-yet-tactical life. haven’t really had much reason to regret it yet.

13 thoughts on “Article – Scientists used computer to predict exactly when society will collapse in 21st century”

  1. I sometimes wonder about the people of Hiroshima, dutifully going to work everyday to their job at the ball bearing factory. They were conscientious, punctual, courteous to their fellow employees and neighbors, exceedingly kind to animals and children. Kept a clean house, didn’t waste food, saved money, took care of their parents and went to church.

    None of that mattered when the bomb went off over their heads. How many of the population saw that coming and took off for other venues? Hard to say but there had to be a few that had some insider info.

    I’m just going to live a good life (don’t have much longer) take nice trips a couple times a year, go see the redwoods again via Reno (love that town) and the west coast and not worry about it. I especially enjoyed riding a ferry boat across Puget sound once, and also Lake Powell, world class scenery that. New England during lobster season sounds nice too, may as well go before it all goes down the tube. Can’t take it with me and don’t want the wife’s boyfriend to wind up with it.

    I do have a few ‘spare tire’ type of items in the bunker room to hedge bets, thanks to CZ and sites like this one, but hope I never need them. If I have to dip into the Mountain House packs the shit will be getting real.

    • Some after the bomb went off moved to Nagasaki.
      There is a old story about the family who at the end of the 1850’s could see a war coming so went looking for some where safe to move to. They ended up at a place called Gettysburg.

      • Or the guy who was so terrorized by WWI that he moved his family to an island in the South Pacific…called Guadalcanal.

  2. I think this Meme of “Computers Predict the End of the World” has been around for a while, as a little sub-genre of Apocalyptic Fiction. It has gotten a Boost lately, by way of the Terms “Artificial Intelligence” and “Quantum Computing”.

    As anyone who knows anything about Programming, the principle of “Garbage In, Garbage Out” (GIGO) is as Inviolate as Gravity. Anyone claiming to having a Program on a Computer for “Predicting the End of the World” is Highly Unlikely to be willing to show that Program, or its Inputs. (the Garbage). The best that can be done, in a Credible manner, is to make multifaceted comparasions of previous Social/Economic/Political ‘Collapses’ and hope that the Inputted Data has been ‘Adjusted’ to take into account the Complexities of the current Political, Economic and Technological situation.

    Claiming that the “Artificially-Intelligent, Quantum-Hypercomputer that exists in the Dark-Matter Universe” (yes, one article about this made that claim) knows, (or vaguely predicts) “The End of the World as we Know It” within a Decade or three isn’t any more Credible that someone who actually Read All of those “Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire” books and suspects that the Current Political/Economic situation is a “Parallel” .

    • This M.I.T. project was funded by the club of Rome and published under the title “Limits of Growth”. The same team did an update 20 years later and reported no major differences. The conclusions have been challenged but I know of no challenges to the data imputted.

      • If that was the case (and I believe that there have been many Individuals/Organizations who have done this) the “Program” was written to give the Desired Results to the Funding Group; the “Club of Rome” is one of the older groups who have been promoting “Collapse” in support of the Neo-Fuedallist model of World ‘governance’.

  3. They actually ran a bunch of different models that resulted in different points where key aspects of life crashed (eg, food production, energy). The “standard run” is what the article refers to. The article doesn’t mention that all predictions of this sort have an error factor, which could be like 10 years or more for any degree of certainty. That model also assumed we did nothing to adapt be more sustainable. It is easy to dismiss a computer model when you don’t like the outcome, but the prediction is life will get dicey sometime between now and 30 years from now… hardly a precise prediction.

  5. Wonder if these computer.projections are any more accurate than the climate change ones ?

  6. Who knew that Hari Seldon was working on the “foundation” of psychohistory at MIT in the seventies… 😉

  7. Yeah, it appears ‘economic’ and ‘political’ imbalances will be the undoing of the U.S. Too many instances of strong Socialism / White Hate / Uncontrolled Immigration / Right Wing Terrorist thoughts to be a coincidence. They are attempting to remove native Americans and gain populations who don’t mind being pushed around by government – their own did it all the time. Pesky Americans who were born with rights other countries never had and so won’t miss. I’d say 10 -15 more years and it will be complete.

  8. That would be the same computer that predicted the polar ice caps would melt by 2012 because of Globull Warming?
    The same one that predicted nuclear winter from WWIII by 1989?
    The one that predicted global famine by 1978?

    As you well know, if one pulls the right variables out of their own @$$, and applies them to a new version of the Drake Equation, they can make a computer bark, roll over, and play dead, or tell you whatever you want to hear.

    GI,GO.

    Civilization could collapse in 500 years. Or next Wednesday.

    In most of the world, it never expanded enough to collapse in the first place, and it’s already next Thursday, 500 years in the future, and functionally equivalent to 500 B.C., which is where they’ve lived since ever, and probably always will.

    This is boob bait for the bubbas, and the sort of horsecrap favored for cover articles in joke rags like TIME, Newsweek, and the Atlantic.

    Cow farts, with a publicist.

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