There’s a fairly unremarkable post-apocalyptic book called ‘Wolf and Iron’ that had a character in it who was a social scientist of some sort, as I recall. In the book, he’s asked what he did before the end of the world and he tells how, as an observer of the social condition, he chronicled, recorded, and observed the world as it descended into the apocalypse. The person asking him the question then asks, if he saw it coming why didn’t he prepare for it? He answers that because of his training as a scientific observer, he didn’t let is experience and observations colour his own behavior lest they taint his research.
I was thinking about the today and I did my regular weekend shopping at the ‘Cos (WinCo and CostCo). I, and I’m sure you as well, notice the increases in price, the reduction in availability, the things that are and are not disappearing of the shelves, etc. I just need to keep in mind that observing and being aware of these things conveys no advantage to me unless I act upon those observations accordingly. Unlike the character in the book, I have no concern for my behaviour influencing my perceptions about the situation and what I observe.
And what have I observed? Gas prices were up a nickle locally. The chicken I like to buy went up 10% and is now limited to quantity you can purchase. Quantities in the meat case are reduced. The prices on everything seem to be going up. The .gov has no idea what its doing. As I’ve told people before, it’s just not smart to try and fix the hole in the hull at this point..nows the time to check your lifejacket and head for the boats.
I’ve a thirty year head start on this nonsense. I’ve increased my resilience to a level that puts me in a better position than most. not perfect…nothing ever is…but better than most. And now my goal is to maintain that resilience.
If you’re putting away money for a superrazoo 72″ high def TV, a jet ski, a new motorcycle, a trip to Greece, or anything like that I would suggest taking that money and buying whatever it is you don’t have now that will either be a) more expensive or b) unavailable at a later date. You’ll probably thank yourself later. Later this year you’ll be glad for the meat in the freezer, the extra toilet paper, the stored fuel, the cash in the safe, extra shoes and clothes, etc, etc and you won’t miss that TV at all. (In fact, you’ll probably be able to get it half-price from the grasshoppers next door.)
And if I’m wrong? Nothing bad happens. You can still eat the food, use the fuel, wear the clothes, spend the money, and use the toilet paper. No big deal.
Good advice, as always. Anyone not preparing at this point is setting themselves up for failure. Every purchase I make is made with the thought, “do I need this when the power is out, stores are empty and I am caring for the people I love?”
Yeah…this is a time where everything we do has to be deliberate and thoughtful. There’s no room for being cavalier these days.
Back to the Alpha Strategy, need medical supplies,kero for the new heater,more tools,spare parts for the new jeep(to me,a replacement for the old-same year,make, model,now a parts truck)
Brilliant piece. Hope it spurs action vs reflection.
Behind the 8 ball as always, sadly My good news is that the homestead is now a reality, kind of. I am the proud owner of 80 acres of Ozark wilderness. Now to find a place to rent near by so I can build on said property and move there this year. Eating the contents of my freezers now so I can move them, instead of refilling them and expanding on my preps. Everything will be more expensive and in shorter supply later, but I only have so much moving capability. Eh, at least I have the land.
Congratulations
Is it feasible to use a RV of some sort on the property, instead of renting while building? May be legal restraints/codes that prohibit it, but if not, owning that, instead of getting no long term use of that rent money might be better.
So here is a quandary.
Let’s say you inherited a bunch of stocks. Every time you sell some you’ve got to pay taxes on it. Plus capital gains on the sells. At what point do you get it all out and suffer the taxes versus riding all the waves and hoping for the best. I’ve been worried about this for several years but now it is really concerning.
May be a relatively crazy question but I’m sure there are others in that position.
Anon is it too soon to say “Welcome to Argentina” yet?
Disclaimer I am NOT an investment guru.
(Snip) In recent months, Americans have watched the seeds of inflation begin to sprout in their own backyard… into ugly, invasive weeds. December marked the seventh consecutive month that so-called “transitory” inflation exceeded 5%. With the CPI clocking in at 7%, prices are rising at their fastest pace in almost forty years.
(The producer price index (PPI), meanwhile, is running hot at 9.7%. Remember that wholesale prices eventually get passed on to consumers, which is why the PPI is often seen as a leading indicator… a sign of things to come.)
(AND these are Gov.com Mangled Stats, Real Inflation is Higher)
That’s because, as the inflationista politicians abuse and debase the local money, other stores of value – USD… gold… crypto… land… art… wine… – become relatively more valuable. Case in point: When we first arrived here in 2010, a pack of cigarettes was about $1… or four pesos. Today, a pack of cigarettes is still about $1… but it takes over 100 pesos to buy that same dollar.
And it gets worse (or better, depending on which currency you’re using).
Because the government doesn’t want locals divesting out of (selling) their pesos for dollars (or anything else), they enact strict capital controls. This includes limits on how much money Argentines are allowed to exchange per month (US $200) and heavy taxes levied on foreign purchases. (As of 2020, Argentines who buy dollars using bank cards or who purchase foreign currency for savings must pay a 35% tax on top of an existing 30%, the so-called “solidarity tax.”)
Of course, such measures do nothing to curb Argentines’ enthusiasm for foreign currency. En contrario! In a country where the “official” inflation rate is a whopping 50% (and where everyone knows it’s much, much higher), locals are as keen as ever to ditch their pesos in favor of practically anything else.
And so, they pay a huge “escape premium” to do so. The resulting spread (la brecha) between the “official” (blanco) and the “unofficial” (blue) rate is more than double. In other words, if you earn, save or invest in dollars… and you exchange them here on the blue market, you get 210 pesos for your dollar, more than twice the official rate.
The lesson, if it is not obvious, is not to be a milk cow for the state, leaving the powers that be to slowly inflate away the value of your earnings and/or savings. Milk cows eventually become beef cows, as the good people of Argentina know all too well.
You inherited those stock, think how folks like myself that BOUGHT My Stock shares watching the Fed Bubble Get Bigger and Bigger awaiting the pin to deflate it.
Do you have a years’ worth of groceries for you and your family? Do you have the ability to PAY TAXES and or Mortgage on your home as Not to become Homeless? Do you have a Garden and some dirt time learning the needs of YOUR Garden? Thomas Jefferson was quite proud to be known as a Gardner.
My Grandmothers stories about the bank failures of the Great Depression and the losses they took BUT they managed to scrabble hard enough NOT to be the Hungry Hobos and Homeless Drifter Families inspires me to set aside what Bank HOLIDAYS and Government cannot easily take away with a few computer keystrokes…
But hey, it’s but January 2022 the year is young….
Now.
Unless you inherited it a different way then I did (beneficiary of my late aunt’s retirement account) it isn’t capital gains, it counts as straight income.
I just cashed out most of it to buy a new place, ya, the taxes seriously hurt but now I own two places outright, one a duplex and in the same neighborhood.
In nursing there is an acronym, ADPIE, which is: Assess, Diagnose, Plan, Impliment, Evaluate.
Assess the situation, diagnosis what the problem is, plan how to fix it, execute your plan, see if it worked.
The shorter version is when you tell someone ‘hey my patient is de-satting’. You’re boss looks at you and ask ‘OK, so what did you o about it and did it work?’
As Rawles once said preparedness is about actions. It’s fine to read blogs and study stuff but if you aren’t getting fitter, building skills and building up supplies you aren’t getting prepared.
Do the things!
I believe that book was written by Gordon Dickson.
My wife and I put our emphasis on land and small gov in ‘80, when we moved to a rural county after leaving Detroit.
Our now- late ‘30s kids have done likewise. Skip the too fancy house, put in gardens (organized, and hidden), and plant trees that provide food.
Put aside a bit of cash, and some real money.
Reload ammo, hunt, forage.
Help solid neighbors when you’re able, mind your own business. It all pays off.
Last week Costco was out of hamburger. Concern was rapidly being overcome by anxiety so I circled back after a while and praise be to Crom there was a recently re-stocked hamburger section. Chicken thighs and legs were still .99 cents/lb so all is well. Won’t have to go back for a while, both freezers are full, but I try and go on Monday mornings to avoid the crowds and bargain shop.
Made it this far by trusting my gut and it has me heavy into the freeze dried meals. Watch the sites for sales and free shipping. Full up on ammo, guns, and reloading components but hard to turn down a deal for more. My friends Dad just gifted me 100 rounds of .243 brass which was greatly appreciated, looking forward to loading it up. Made the switch when I read an article once on how the LA SWAT team’s (they shoot a lot) main bolt action rifle was an off the shelf Remington 700 in 243, good power and less likely to pass through and hit innocents, plus most shots were under 150 yards. My old broken down body appreciates the lower recoil over .308 and the BAR just feels just right shooting .243 and is a good back up to the AR.
You can’t go wrong stocking up in stuff you need.You of course can go wrong having normalcy bias and thinking hey nothing bad here, just business as usual. Prep the commodities and you can’t go wrong. Stuff you always need and buy is the way to having what most of the uninitiated won’t have if the SHTF. I have a friend ( a doctor ) who is all on board with having food and other key supplies but when I suggested firearms he said what would I need those for?huh? I said there will be those who want to take what you and your family have. Since he’s a liberal and never even thought about guns there you go.
The difference is in the “Foundation” book series the social scientist sees the end of the galactic empire and works to minimize the pain. A multi thousand year fall and long return may be shortened to several hundred years and reduce the pain and suffering as much as possible,more books ensue.
We lost power yesterday for 10 hours, I deliberately didn’t turn on the generator just as little reminder to ourselves on how comfortable we live and continue prepping. I’ve been prepping since 2005 and still need reminders and fill supply gaps, it never ends. Our Costco shelves are randomly missing items, such as red meats, more notably pasta and pasta sauces. We also topped off our freezers recently.