It’s the weekend. Time to head up to the Co’s for shopping. (WinCo and CostCo)
I’m pretty well off on food right now so I just ‘top off’ what i’ve used over the previous week, but even if I don’t have more than a handful of items on my shopping list I still take my time and hit every aisle? Why? Because I want to see for myself whats going on in terms of demand, pricing, and availability. Are the natives restless and stripping the stores of toilet paper? Has the price of chicken really gone up as much as the news has warned? Are the strategic canned good disappearing? Are the home canning and food storage items strangely absent? That sort of thing.
I’ve believed for the last twenty years that the apocalypse was going to choose the form of some sort of economic issue…a global depression, massive inflation, or most likely a return to the Carteresque 1970’s. But…thinking ahead….what followed Carter? The great recovery after Reagan took office. And that, mi amigos, was an interesting time to be alive.
Not only do I need to be ready, just in case, for an upcoming economic downturn…I also need to be ready to capitalize on it so that when it finally comes to an end (and they all do, eventually) I can come out the other side stronger than ever.But, of course, the priority is on being able to get through the dang thing first.
What sort of opportunities might arise? Most notably, I’m curious to see what happens to the currently red-hot real estate market. If interest rates ever go back up that might slow down the house buying frenzy and prices might start to drop. And if the interest rates go to where they were during the tail end Carter’s reign, which was somewhere in the 14-16% range, I’d imagine things would really cool down. (BTW, the highest rate I’m seeing was around 18% in 1982 which was one year into Reagans term..by the time he left office, though, it had dropped to 10%.) My house is paid for, so mortgage interest rates only affect me in the sense that they make selling the house easier/harder as buyers demand increases/decreases. But since I’ve no intention of selling, it’s moot. I do, however, have intentions of buying and a 2008 style of real estate crash would really help my plans along.
But, before I can think about using a crisis to my advantage I have to, y’know, make sure it doesn’t leave me as part of the wreckage by the side of the road. So….off to the Co’s.
But…thinking ahead….what followed Carter? The great recovery after Reagan took office. And that, mi amigos, was an interesting time to be alive.
Yep, however in 1980 we were still the biggest lender nation, now we are the biggest debtor nation. Might not work out as well this time, plus we don’t have Reagan this time!!! I do miss that guy!!! Only time will tell how this plays out.
Another Interesting fact, most Cryptocurrencies are in the red and Bitcoin is off about 25,000 since Elon Musk made his statement. However the stock market keeps moving up. Wonder if there is any connection?
Went to WallyWorld today for the first time in 2 years. The shelving for wallets had 55 spots with prices displayed. 50 were empty. Must mean sumthin’.
We are in the process of buying a house with more yard. I’ll be able to see all my “toys” without having to go across town. No more paying for additional storage. We won’t close until the end of June. We own the house we are living in. My plan is to vacate the garage here, then move a trailer full of goods at a time to the new house. And it will be me and a few friends as my DW just broke her leg and will be in a “no bending” mode for 4-6 months. And me with 20 years of prepping supplies. I bring this us as you are talking about “topping off”. I either eat the food I have stored or move it. For me, it’s eat what I can, move the rest. There are certain things that I will not hire out to get moved. Once those are taken care of, I may hire the rest out, we’ll see.
congrats on the new place. get well soon to the dw.
i think this one is more great(er) depression rather than downturn. and may be topped with attack or invasion of some sort. fourth turning maybe, we’ll see.
Went through the Reagan years,vastly romanticized and mis remembered. Socially much better than now;racism was much less,freedom of speech was almost absolute,no books were being”burned”, computers didnot run everything. Economically it was a mess, getting and holding a job was much tougher(real skills and ability were needed),inflation was still on but the Volker remedy was almost worse(21% interest at top) but savings rates tried to keep up,stock market was a trap-anyone else remember Black Friday? 50% drop in the market(I lost a lot of savings),the Savings and Loan swindle by the Bushs'(50 million was a lot then) and the resulting tax crash in real estate(ResolutionTrust and bailout) and most did not recognize the wholesale thefts from the .gov coffers Social Security Trust fund,Medicare+Medicaid Trust funds, Fannie,Freddie+Ginnie were all looted and the frauds of star wars and military contactors(on our way to empire),some good was done with deregulation(MaBell broken up and Interstate trucking) but the grid and supply chain problems now are directly related to some of that(anyone with privatized water system knows). Was a good decade for innovation-cellular (beepers to phones),tech was booming (computers/pcs/tv/digital/materials) and real competition made us stronger and real resilience was deeply ingrained.
So, you trash the 80s in generalities and close with “and real competition made us stronger and real resilience was deeply ingrained.” in talking about the 80s.
So, I guess Reagan and the 80s were not so bad after all.
Remember the bumper sticker that said “No Trillion Dollar National Debt?” IMHO, Reagan bought us time after Jimmy. Maybe a parallel is Trump bought us time after Barry.
Maybe time’s up?
Since you did not read what I wrote it was not generalities but actual events and realities as opposed to trashing and I gave positive and negatives. Reagan was a TRAITOR and should have been treated as one(and a human rights/war criminal) unless he was proven as incompetent/incapacitated as he was rumoured to be.
The CEO of Hovnanian Homes was on CNBC a week or so ago and reminded the host that there were actually more homes being built on an annual basis during the time period when interest rates were closer to 20% than 10. I would have thought that building would slow some with 2×4 8 footers at nearly $13 a board and 1/2″ OSB running above $40 a sheet… but I’ve so far been proven wrong on that. Just food for thought.