Guns are a big part of my life… they make me money, they keep me safe, they encourage a particular set of values and lifestyle….but sometimes it gets difficult to remember that there are other aspects of preparedness that may actually be more paramount.
Between the Wuhan Flu, the repercussions of that flu on the economy, the ‘reset’ that we are seeing as jobs that were formerly secure suddenly become insecure, and of course the economic uncertainty of the upcoming administration, it is not unreasonable to think that perhaps stocking greenbacks may be a bit more prudent than stocking green tip.
There is, literally, no such thing as a secure job. Even if you work for yourself, own the building, and have no competition, you’re job is not secure. Literally anything can happen…..crazy legislation, an earthquake, a divorce, a heart attack, a fire, a war…..there is no shortage of things, black swan and otherwise, that can yank your employment rug out from under you. Certainly, some jobs are more secure than others…but the notion that “oh, I’ll always have a job..there’s always a need for [occupation] so I’ll always be employed” doesn’t take into account those curve balls. There’s always going to be a need for paramedics…so your job is secure. Right up until you get in an accident and lose a leg or your sight. The point is, while you can have a certain amount of security at your job you never, ever, ever have 100% security. So…be ready.
I spent a huge(!) amount of money on materiel in 2020 and, for the most part, I’m done. Oh, if a nice AR crosses my path for a bargain price, or a case of .223 turns up at pre-flu prices I’ll take it. But now it’s time to start resources into improving resiliency. And nothing improves your resiliency in the pre-apocalypse like cash.
My record of forecasting the future has been less-than-great. But…I foresee economic turmoil ahead. I see higher unemployment as flu-related impacts to business cause layoffs. I see jobs going away and not coming back (at least, not in the way they used to be). I see higher taxes on the folks who still have jobs. And I don’t see that changing in the near-term. Oh sure, there’ll be an bit of an economic bounce when we declare victory in The War On Chinese Flu but it’ll be a short-lived bounce.
If someone asked me what to do to increase resilience for 2021 I’d say “Wargame a scenario where you lose your job and can’t find another one at all or at the same wage and prepare for that”. That means clear debts as quick as you can, and start holding cash. Sure, you’ll lose some to inflation but I don’t see a Wewimar-esque hyperinflation coming yet. If you want to hedge your bets, split it among cash and metals. Here’s what I wold not do: I would not buy big ticket items just because I can, I would not buy anything on credit, I would not plan any expensive vacations, and I would not plan on having kids (because do you really want to take the hit of three months without a paycheck and have the added medical expenses and the additional stresses all at a time when things are so uncertain?)
When you come home, shoulders slumped and your mind racing, wondering how youre going to meet the mortgage now that your boss has said that your job is over in two weeks, will that new 4k television you bought last week seem like a good idea or would you rather have had that money in our account right then?
So, for me, it’s time to quietly make sure the decks are clear and start gathering up all the resources I can. I’m fortunate in that my house is paid off, and I used some of the windfall from gun sales to pay all the taxes for the next year. In a worst case scenario all I have to pay for is utilities and food. Right now money that would otherwise go to things like mortgage payments is freed up to go elsewhere. I suspect 2021 will be similar to 2020 in many ways, but I think it’ll also have some new torments to go with it. I want to be as resilient as I can be against that future. That means checking off the gun stuff from my list and moving on to beefing up the financial resilience. Might want to examine your own situation and see how youd fare if you got that pink slip tomorrow.
Sound wisdom as always CZ
Excellent advice.
When clearing debts, I would suggest getting rid of variable rate debts first (such as credit card debt). If things start going downhill faster, you don’t want the interest rate to be increased on you.
Sound plan and advice. I still anticipate reading about a long series of gun, ammo, and magazine purchases over the next year. Addicts always return to the habit, myself included.
Saving is prepping for the most likely scenario any of us will ever personally face but it is the least sexy and least fun. For those that don’t know where to begin Dave Ramsey really does have a method that works. I like you decided to build up a few tens of thousands of extra dollars in my savings account this just to be a lot more liquid.
Truer words…
Got new wheels in 2020, because thousands off, and the savings in gas paying the note was worth the price.
But this next year, the bank account gets first and last dibs.
Starting with the mayo jar/under-the-mattress account.
…And have cash ON HAND; not just as mere pixels on your computer screen! If you don’t have cash in the house, you’re vulnerable. The power goes out, you don’t have money. “Governor” feels banks are “non-essential,” you don’t have money. I could go on all day.
And yes, DO buy a small fire safe to keep this kind of thing in. It’s worth a couple of hundred to keep thousands from going up in smoke, or out the window the thief broke to get into the house. A side bennie is that you can keep your vital records, a couple of handheld ham radios, and perhaps “protection” in there as well.
Timely post…just found out that my company lost our contract with the Govt. We have 4 months notice for which I am very grateful! My wife and I have been working the past 2 decades to get into a position to be debt free. We are close with only our house note remaining with 2 years to go. I hope to have something lined up by April, but should that not come to fruition, I think we could make it to the end of 2021 before we get too desperate.
A lot of people may think we are “lucky” to be in that position, but as I stated we have been working to get to this position a long time by cutting back and not going to Disney World but doing more economical things as a family in order to put the extra funds into debt retirement. It can be done and it takes some focus and determination to stick to a plan. I am now working on some new professional skills to help me be more current within my particular sector of Quality Assurance and hopefully more marketable for hiring.
I say all that not to pat myself on the back (well, maybe a little) but to be an example of what you stated in that you never know when the next economic hit is going to come so live your life but also be ready for those times when they do arrive.
The first time I was unemployed was very early in my marriage and my wife was pregnant and about a month from full term. It did not last long, but it was enough of a wakeup call to me to start thinking about being prepared the next time it happened which was about 14 years later (and 15 years ago). We were better prepared and went 3 months before I found a job with my current employer. So I am fortunate in that I have had another 15 years to prepare for this next stint of never ending honey-do’s, and I could have not done anything to prepare either, but I am grateful for sites like CZ that have helped me think through different scenarios from most to least likely. Unemployment is definitely one of those “most likely” disaster scenarios that everyone should think through.
Cheers!
“…In a worst case scenario all I have to pay for is utilities and food….”
I’ve been paying attention (in a good way). Unless you’ve been throwing nightly block parties for the last 6 months, i believe that should read:
“…In a worst case scenario all I have to pay for is utilities.”
I have the ability to live in my current lifestyle for 18 months if I lost my job. Three years if I want to be a mid 30s dude living at home. Was thinking of a sabbatical and a new truck, but 0 debt and a huge safety net is nice. Still, I’m debating dropping a couple grand on food, preps, and ammo since the clock is ticking faster. Unfortunately I have had the years to get ready than many of you had. I only got to the party a few years ago. Even so, I’m better off than most.
“Still, I’m debating dropping a couple grand on food, preps, and ammo since the clock is ticking faster.”
Really? Debating? Had you done more earlier, it was all cheaper then. Get to it…….and lay some back for your allies.
Money is good to have, but don’t be sorry for buying tangible goods instead of stacking bucks. The government is printing dollars it doesn’t have, which means inflation is going to bite hard soon.
I agree completely. I am fortunate to be in a very good place. One thing I rarely see mentioned, and it’s free, is to maintain your health and fitness. Look at yourself in a mirror. Walk up four or five flights of stairs. You’ll know what to do.
okay, i have 4k credit card debt, and owe 10k on my truck. have 5k in the bank and 5k in the safe. i have a small retirement check, and my other stream is a military college, not as stable as it once was, especially considering my age/health. i want to p/o either the truck or cc, and pay the other one as quickly as possible but i figure the cash on hand is better at this moment. i could let the bank have the truck if things go real sideways, but gotta pay the taxes or lose my paid-for home to the state nazis. any advice?
I would think paying off the secured debt over the unsecured debt if you could only pay one.
If it’s like most the CC deb, is at +-20% plus a fee and you are getting 1/10% in the bank. Pay it off, darn few investments in your life will pay as well.
riverrider:
If they are going to come and get something, let it be my credit card. My vehicles and house are paid, the taxes paid yearly and in advance. Eventually they will all be paid but the “tangibles” get paid for first in my house, DW agrees.
good points jp. i have other paid-off vehicles so letting this one go wouldn’t hamper mobility except in snow. it has very little interest and is worth more than i owe so…the cc has higher rate and is variable which back in the day i saw go to 25% so i’m leaning on paying that and i’ll still have a good amount of liquid cash. in light of possible civil? war, might be better spent on silver tho.
Sell the truck(unless it is a true “work” vehicle-is it a income earner?). Buy something cheap for cash-go gray. Call credit card tell them you are being laid off and if they will take less cash to pay off/ close account or never get their money.
Historically in Hyperinflation situations (looking at the fall of the Soviet Union and Weimar Germany as Zimbabwe information is hard to confirm) tangibles useful tangibles could ALWAYS be traded for mere ever depreciating fiat money. You said Utilities and food only fixed costs? Did you forget Taxes friend?
Many a paid for homestead fell to the Sherriff Guarded Courthouse auctions for debts and taxes due during the Great Depression.
Both my friends from the former USSR and German family stories-journals tell me of how (USSR) 50K Rubles saved up to buy a New Car were horded due to financial insecurity your describing so correctly, to find in two years would scarcely buy a set of Winter Boots. Some of my German Family members journaled stories about folks trading the family Silver (not Silver Plate but Silver and that included serving dishes) for a smuggled in barrel of potatoes that were “hid” under a wagon load of firewood with a basket of apples “Hid” to be FOUND by the Police Searchers.
Fiat Money can be suddenly CHANGED at the whim of the Government AT the Exchange Rate THEY Choose.
Harder to do so with a good wood lot or concealed supply of canned foods.
“Did you forget Taxes friend?”
Did you forget I said that the taxes were paid a year upfront?
“But now it’s time to start resources into improving resiliency. And nothing improves your resiliency in the pre-apocalypse like cash.”
I have been out of debt 5 times. Each time was due to an external event (inheritance, reenlistment bonus, gift, etc.) never on my own. I am close to being there again, but under my own power and with “spare” money readily available. Also food and other necessities on hand, in quantity.
I saw things coming in 2020 (not that far in advance, but enough). I stocked up on some things before the rush and added to my stocks as prices/cash/availability made things available. I spent a good deal of money getting us where we are.
I too am looking around me and seeing that now is the time to focus on the last of the debt. Not much more I need/want more than to be debt-free. When shopping now, we are fixing/replacing/topping off, not acquiring new “toys”.
With the potential incoming “leadership”, I see a lot of money being spent on “special interest” groups and the “non-special” people having to pay for it with increased taxes and decreased availability of goods. We’ll see what comes up. I’m focused on the micro (what I can do personally) and not worrying about the macro (events outside the county level).
Hi Bubba…
Excellent observation my dear Watson.. But, just a note .. you talk about greenbacks vs. green tips.. those green tips will go up in value and trading face when those green backs won’t be worth “TOILET PAPER!!”
You don’t have to think too much about that!!!!!
skybill
Please go down to WalMart this week and try paying for your toilet paper with green tip. let me know how that works out.
How much was a couple K of greentip going for at the gun show last week?
great post. complacency kills. thanks and merry festivus!