A genuine sign of the apocalypse: I had to cut my own hair. Turns out, I look good in a ball cap. It occurred to me that if I can’t find a haircut because my barber is closed up, then there must be a lot of chicks out there who can’t get their waxing done. Now theres a crisis. #welcometo1987
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Government setting up internal checkpoints and tracking your movements, standing in line for toilet paper, rationed healthcare, economic freefall, empty grocery shelves, neighbors ratting out neighbors to the police…it’s like a free 30-day trial of socialism.
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I’ve been using some of this downtime (which for me isn’t very much) to streamline a few processes. Most notably, my inventorying system. I know that there are still folks who use a clipboard and pen but I find Excel to be the shiznits for this sort of thing. Formerly, I used to keep a very simple, sortable list. As of late I’ve changed it up. I recognize that having less than the desired amount of something is not necessarily the same as a ‘go replace it immediately’, situation. Lemme give an example.
I like to keep 210 rolls of TP on hand. Thats seven of the CostCo 30-packs. Formerly, my spreadsheet would subtract the amount on hand from the amount desired and whatever the difference was is what I needed to go get. Or, put another way, I want 210, I have 208, so in theory I need to go out and buy 2. And thats how I rolled (heh) for a number of years.
As of late, I’ve changed the system to something I find more fluid and flexible but still allowing me to keep inventory numbers up. Previously, anything less than 100% was “running low”. I’ve adjusted my numbers and reformulated the spreadsheet so that if I have 90% of an item or more, I’m at an acceptable level of readiness. Anything below 90% is the trigger to immediately restock back up to 100%. Under this paradigm, if the supply of TP drops from 210 (100%) down to, say, 200 (95%~)…no immediate action required. But if it drops below 189 (90%) then it’s off to CostCo. In short, I figure that I am content with 90% of my desired amount of an item in case things suddenly go off the rails.
This did mean making some adjustments to what my desired levels are on some things. It meant assuming, worst case, I would start the apocalypse with 90% of what I thought would be the perfect amount. Some things I was cool with that (TP), some I was not (rice) and so those items had their amounts bumped up.
I’ve got it set now so that anything on my spreadsheet that is at more than 90% shows up in green, and anything below 90% shows up in ‘warning yellow’. Anything below 75% show up in ‘danger red’. So, at a glance, I can see by color code what needs attention and how soon.
I’ve been plugging a few holes in my list lately and, surprisingly, with the exception of 25# bags of long grain rice, anything I need thats on my list is available somewhere in this town. Tell you what, gang…this is the slowest moving end-of-the-world I’ve ever seen. Where’s the cannibal army? Where’s the rogue military units? Where’s the plucky survivor who rallies the townies? Where’s Charlton Heston?
Ah, but seriously… I suspect it’s going to get worse before it gets better, and the getting better part won’t necessarily be the same as ‘back to normal’. Much how things never got ‘back to normal’ after 9/11. But, for now, I’m just watching the news and my local scene, wondering when the real crapstorm is gonna start.
I think the greater amount of post-pandemic fallout will be political rather than social.
A few of the more far-sighted citizens will see this as a wake-up call to start their own preps.
Just about every congress-critter however will see it as warning on what their limitations of power were and how to avoid that limit for Round Two.
State governors who were snubbed by fed.gov (ordered 5,000 ventilators from Uncle; received 200) are going to want to be able to do what they think they need to do with fed help and the only way they’ll see that possible is to increase their ’emergency powers’.
Commander:
I do something similar with stocking my storage, with one difference.
Using your example, I wouldn’t buy when I finished a roll, I would when I finished a pack. The cost savings work in my favour.
This current mini-crisis has been a good dress rehearsal for the day we hope never comes.
Knowing how to cope with SHTF is Very different to wanting to!
Keep up the good work…
I’m about an hour west of nola, if you believe the talking heads, numbers are rising but for the most part life on the street hasn’t changed much over all this.
Glad you’re working out the details on your supplies.
Tell you what, gang…this is the slowest moving end-of-the-world I’ve ever seen.
Indeed, where is the Great Humungus? Immortan Joe? Work has had to send me home twice with a note saying that not only are football pads not appropriate attire, but they shouldn’t be worn over the uniform. Cops told me I had to take down the fake heads on spikes at the gate, the neighbors were complaining.
On a serious note, this has shown me a few holes in the preps that needed beefing up. I’m considering this as a prolonged exercise to test the “plans within plans.”
Everyone keep your distances and cover that cough or I’ll shove tubes down your throat!!!
In deed, where is Charlton Heston! From my cold dead hands! I suppose he showed us the way. He left it all up to us. It is in our hands. I Will Not Comply!
I think the reference was to Heston’s role in the Omega Man.
It’s just me and the Mrs. – a couple of retired old farts and our tracking is very simple on a few sheets of notepaper. However I also ‘track’ other supplies we use on a spreadsheet (medications) and we resupply usual items with Rx runs as a trigger event which is usually monthly and (or used to) get grocery then as well.
One comment – it’s “weird” out there. The Mrs. likes to do a “drive around town” in the late afternoon / early pre-dark evening just to see what’s going on with the new expectations and I view it as area recon and patrol. With that, a community about 20 minutes away (old stomping grounds) we went to and drove through yesterday and it seems to have more ‘normal’ traffic and people out and about and didn’t seem to be as nearly as hunkered down as our own area. To her it felt and looked like nothing had changed. Traffic and movement here is way down, noticeably so but not there. The biggest news right now is unemployment claims here and we have not been really hit medically (yet). My Spider Sense is telling me it could get really frisky about three weeks from now or so… no real specific data, just an off feeling – sort of like when one cop says to the other one: “Sure is quiet out tonight.”
I just guffawed out loud. You used the “Q” word!
Before I retired, if someone on shift used the “Q” word, we would collectively give all the shit calls to whomever used the word.
Geez, I sure don’t miss swing shift on a Friday night. (Or Monday morning day shift!)
Still quiet here in the Wilamette valley. Stores are stocked, gas prices are dropping ($2.59for cash).
This slow rolling TEOTWAWKI thing is kinda nice in the respect of setting perimeter stuff, organizing stuff, checking lists, no panic…
The UPS guy is starting to give me dirty looks.
Watch oil prices, that is the indicator on how the world economy is handling this as a whole. Low oil means no commerce movement.
Gas in North Texas is average of 1.40!!! Love low gas prices, but it’s not good in the long run.
Round 2 will be the economy, that is where the problems will be. Riots and looting to come, worldwide!!!!!
We are ready on round 4 and Pelosi is winding up for a quick 5th and 6th. QE to infinty-FED put 5Trilion on balance sheet in 1 week not counting the REPO action of the last many months
Family and I live in KS, we went to GA for the FiL passing away. Most folks in the Central US seem to be slowing down with traffic. The South? Not even close. The entire drive from Memphis to South of Atlanta was full of people. The only thing different for them was the fast food lobbies are closed. Everything else is “normal” to them.
To all you socialist bashers out there two things come to mind, in the interest of keeping a healthy perspective.
If capitalism is so great why does it have to be bailed out by socialism every ten years or so?
When the ‘stimulus’ check comes in the mail, don’t cash it, that’s socialism.
Jimbo
“When the ‘stimulus’ check comes in the mail, don’t cash it, that’s socialism.”
Thinking like a true socialist, its not the government’s money!!!!
It’s only socialism if you didn’t pay taxes in the first place, for everyone else it’s getting your money back, not the government giving you anything!!!
Taking stuff from one group and giving it to another is socialism. We live in a de facto socialism nation now, has been for a long time, so realistically the entire population of the USA are socialists.
And don’t forget corporate socialism often called by such names such as subsidy, tariff, bail out or incentive.
Jimbo, I agree with your definitions and assessment of what is happening. We need to get back to the our country’s roots and away from this socialism/communism/Nazism/whatever-ism.
I LOATHE people that want to live off others like the parasites that they are.
I agree with your premise about socialism, but me getting a stimulus check that amount to about 10% what I paid in 2019 taxes is not socialism. That my friend is a refund of my money not yours or anyone else!!! It was my money to start with, not yours and certainly not the governments!!!
If someone paid zero taxes, than they should get zero stimulus. Now, that is something we both can agree on I think.
What about those of us that paid PLENTY of taxes last year and get SQUAT back in this BS handout because we toiled in school, saved, invested and were too successful, ie made too much money last year? (the sob caved to the dim’s wetdream imo)
FUJIGM, I guess.
Winston,
I agree!! You paid and should get your money back. Those who didn’t pay shouldn’t get anything!!!
Fn’ A man!
Real capitalism doesn’t get bailed out. It allows bad decision makers to fail. Real socialism punishes good decision makers and rewards bad decision makers. We haven’t had real capitalism for 100 years. We have socialism now. What the left wants is to go the rest of the way to communism.
Dead quiet here. Stores still have empty spaces but still pretty well stocked even w the 1st of the month “Mother’s Day” check rush. Gas seems to have settled at $1.69 for regular. Heard a few anecdotes about some low wage earners TRYING to get laid off of gigs here in town to double their income on the .gov giveaway coming up.
Inventory tracking wise, I just keep a clipboard in each of the storage areas along with red paper flags to mark “buy” requirements. KISS works pretty good for me (wonder why? Hmmmm…). Oddly enough, bug spray seems to be a big thing (indoor crittur) seems to be in short supply. Guess there’s a lot of cleaning going on.
Regards
I’ve always had a TP fetish (probably picked up in the military). Let’s just say we won’t run out for a VERY long time :D.
“Regular” inventory systems provide for min/max, and reorder point. EX: 210 rolls is max, 189 (90%) is the reorder point, 21 is the reorder quantity. But…30 is the reorder size unit, so 189+30=219 and if the system isn’t updated it’s ignorant of any inventory changes.
That sort of system will work and is much better than no inventory tracking at all. But one thing a spreadsheet can’t do is track variable inventory decline over time, replenishment time, and accommodate that; max, reorder point and reorder size unit are fixed quantities on a spreadheet. If it’s just you, 210 to 189 may take, say, 2 months; several female house guests may cause reaching the reorder point in 2 weeks.
Big Biz systems (I’m thinking stuff like SAP here, but there are lots of others, most of which are internally built and proprietary, think Walmart, grocery chains, etc.) track usage over time (usually measured in seconds) and take replenishment cycle times into consideration, and are capable of automated reorder. That requires a database rather than a spreadsheet and a tracking system that operates in analog (constant) rather than discrete (by time snapshot, as “when it”s turned on”).
Knew I should have studied how to make a db when I had more time…maybe it’s not too late to learn how to use Access.
Spreadsheet is easier and you can always import it to Access later.
Access ain’t bad as a simple db, and it’s a good learning tool. FYI, the run-time version requires no license. Next step up is SQL Server, older versions can be had cheaply because they’re obsolete.
Zero’s right, for a single user a spreadsheet works just fine, and a spreadsheet is importable when your requirements call for graduating to a db. For what’s in your basement, that’ll probably be “never” especially if you learn advanced Excel techiques; you can do a lot with custom scripts in spreadsheets. Key point: always keep in mind what you’re using the software for: first, making sure you have enough of X, and second, that your chosen quantity of X is adequate for your purpose. Always having enough X (defined as “above minimums”) is more important than tracking precisely every aspect of your X usage and replenishment cycles (see: Discussions with the CO, Chapter 3: “Sir, do you want me to do the job or report on the job?”)
@CmdrZ, I took the plunge and cut my hair today too. Looks ok from the front!
For inventory, I look at the shelf. I’m gonna buy more anyway, if I can, and I get fixated on things. That leads to having 11 ketchup bottles, and no mustard. Which probably means I should have an inventory. The hard thing for me is that my two kids go thru phases. I am overstocked on peanut butter, because suddenly one child wants salami sandwiches every day. Ditto cereal because one wants eggs all of a sudden.
So my demand and usage is very variable, which would play hell with a real inventory.
That’s my excuse for not doing one anyway.
n
(and I’ve got to add in losses from rats and poor storage conditions.)
Alas Babylon… or was it Lucufer’s Hammer (?), where the kids had to go through an “adjustment period”. “TV, NOW!!!”
Any way you could show us a redacted copy of one of your spreadsheets? Also, do you use Excel, Numbers or Google Docs?
Just like to see how a pro does it. I kinda have my own lower tech system – I use graph paper.
Thanks
Thought about it, but the problem is no matter what I put out there someone will chime in with “Yeah, but what about…”. Like if I say i stockpile 210 rolls of TP some idiot will say “Well, what happens if the crisis lasts longer than that?” And if I said I stockpile 5,000,000 rolls they’d say the same thing. If I said I had two years worth of food, theyd say “What if the crisis lasts three years”. That sort thing. Thats why I gave up mentioning specific quantities of things a long time ago. I do use Google Docs to keep a copy available so when Im in CostCo I can look things up. (I now await the inevitable onslaught of “But .gov will track you down and take your stuff!!11!!1!” comments.)
I have always had the tracking thing in the back of my mind since the Eighties when the Enforcer told me about credit card purchase tracking. But if you have a cell phone, then all bets are off. We lost our privacy a long time ago, I think.
Eh….prepaid cellphones that don’t ask for ID to purchase pretty much guarantee privacy as long as you don’t leave the battery in it when youre at any location you want to keep private.
Not specifically related to inventory, but competence in this country seems to have taken a back seat to diversify and inclusiveness. Probably a lot of our “professionals” wouldn’t even qualify as gardeners thirty years ago. We need to maintain high standards, especially at times like this.
I read your opening line about haircuts to my Wife, she laughed. She cut my hair yesterday…it did not go well.
On the other hand, those of us who had the foresight, or in my case ‘Luck’ to marry a former hairdresser, one of her many talents, has had our hair cut since almost day one by a pro….. yeah, I be stylin’ 😉
Wife has cut mine decades ! Saved a bunch, invested it and thankful for God, family and real friends. Going to reread Patriots, spring and green coming, read Job in the Old Testament, blameless and moral, still was put thru quite an ordeal.
Ride of our lives just around the bend, got your vest on ?
Why does it seem that the run on grocery stores/Costco/BJs/etc over the last 2 weeks (stores are pretty much restocked sans toilet paper) was just a practice run for things to come?
Seems like it, doesn’t it?
The problem is, even if the stuff is in the store, CV is gonna be in all the other customers too.
Every time I hear “You can just go to the store next week and buy more”, I add “Sure, if you want to risk your life on the quality of your PPEs and hand sanitation….”
Daughter wants me to go out for chocolate icecream. We’ve got vanilla, and chocolate syrup. I told her I really didn’t want to risk all of our lives for ICE CREAM. We’re set to ride this out in isolation. EVERYONE wants to break our isolation for really trivial and buIIsh!te reasons.
Just say no. There is NO reason to be out playing in this.
n
I got into the habit of topping of the vehicle when I use over 5 gallons. (22 to 24 gallon tank).