So far ( and that’s really a key modifier here) this kung flu thing is turning out to be, for the overwhelming majority, a ‘grid up’ scenario.
I don’t know about you but for me most of my wargaming and ‘possible scenarios’ against which I prepare involve a ‘grid down’ scenario. That’s the one where critical utility services are unavailable or strictly curtailed – no water, no electricity, no natural gas, that sort of thing. “The big one” earthquake? Grid down. Tornado? Grid down? Killer ice storm? Grid down. The kung flu is turning out (thus far) to be a ‘grid up’ scenario which, while not something I have discounted, was certainly not what I was anticipating.
Obviously, though, that ‘grid up’ thing can become ‘grid down’ in a hurry. All it takes is a bunch of self-quarantining linemen, power plant operators, electrical engineers, etc., staying home for the delivery systems to get stretched thin. I would guess that if you’re in a place that gets it’s power from nuclear plants the number of easily-replaced personnel running those things is pretty thin.
What’s that mean to me? Well, first of all, and I’m not sure this is a negative, it makes it a bit harder to interpret the current situation as a disaster. I mean, if we’re honest, when we were stocking away freeze drieds and tucking away cans of ammo we envisioned The Big Crisis as one where we would be in the dark and cold, using candles and kerosene lamps, cooking over our grills and campstoves, and heating water in big pots over campfires. Right now? I turn the handle marked “H” on my sink and hot water comes out. I flip on the lightswitch and my room lights up. I press a button on the wall and my house gets warmer. It’s a bit hard to not have a little mental disconnect.
Here’s an example of what I mean – I’m assuming many of you watch The Walking Dead, and if you don’t I am certain you at least know the premise. For the first few seasons our heroes (such as they are) lived in abandoned buildings, campsites, etc, with no running water, electricity, etc, etc. It was a very close to the edge existence. Later in the show they find a haven with running water and electricity….a sense of normalcy develops, despite the fact the zombies are just outside the walls. My point being that while intellectually I know this is a very serious time, the relative lack of obvious impact on my day-to-day is making it hard to feel like it’s as big a deal as it is.
One thing I had not considered, at all, was the possibility that in a ‘grid up’ crisis those grid up utilities could be manipulated by others to force a control on me. For example, in places that have ordered ‘non essential’ businesses to close, municipalities are threatening to turn off utility services to businesses that don’t comply. That’s only a step or two away from turning off utilities to neighborhoods to force them to evacuate to quarantine locations or to exact some other sort of behavioral change. I never thought of that, had you?
The “Hmm-I-Never-Considered-That” moments are starting to come a bit faster these days. When all of this blows over (or, at least, diminishes a bit) there’s going to be some frenzied activity in the blogosphere as people recount what they should have done and will do differently ‘next time’.
This is a good exercise for us to learn from for sure. I think it’s about percentages. Most wargaming involves higher death rates of at least 15 percent or more, before we start to see critical resources start to fail. While this event is global maybe the trigger for failure is higher than what we planned for.
und ve has vays to make you kooperate!
In the “299 Days” series of books at one point the PTB were planning on shutting of utilities to the uncooperative regions for this very reason.
I agree with you 100%! I have been in LE for 26 1/2 years, been shot at, had knives pulled on me, been in knock down drag out fights, had bones broken, etc. this crap is scaring the hell out of me. I’m not the panicking type but this has definitely raised my anxiety……
The utility I work for has 30-40% of the workforce out right now, not so much in my department mostly office staff that don’t do shit anyway, and things haven’t even gotten that bad yet. I’m the guy that climbs the pole to open the transformer fuse to cut the power. Do it all the time for City/County code enforcement when they condemn a building due to fire, water damage or whatever.
People would be surprised how few people it actually takes to run a utility. Most days it’s two dispatchers, two system operators and 12 guys in the field (of a service area with ~500k meters or ~1.5 million people) to open and close switches, respond to outages or emergencies, and routine calls of no power and such. We take care of 90% of the calls, only calling in a line crew for big jobs like a pole down or transformer replacement. Two of us can put small wire back up or bandaid a crossarm if we have to.
If we were to lose just a few of the people in my dept. and the system operators, keeping the lights on would be difficult at best.
Very good observations.
This is probably the genesis of the idea that the “Flubros” have.
Everything looks basically normal, so it’s a nothingbuger.
“That’s only a step or two away from turning off utilities to neighborhoods to force them to evacuate to quarantine locations or to exact some other sort of behavioral change. I never thought of that, had you?”
Did I come up with that thought myself ? Nope. But some years back, the book ‘One Second After’ had a conversation which mentioned shutting off the water resevoir contents as a negotiating point with a neighboring city which wanted to send some of their citizens to the community because of resources. Not exactly a neighborhood, but same thought process.
States requiring quarantines prior to allowing citizens to visit their state – that was a surprise to me. Never thought state governors would play hardball with each other. I think they now realize that national government does not have the resources to help everybody. Its why New York is asking before those resources are gone.
This situation fits pretty close to me having to stay in because I’ve got a bad cold or having to eat out of my stores because of something like a job loss. I tend to look at things in terms of probabilities and I rate both me getting sick and losing my job as high probability, so I prepaid a lot around them.
If Yellowstone does actually blow its top or the Chinese Invade I’m pretty screwed, but for things that just require a staycation life doesn’t really change that much.
Yes, it’s very weird to be not worried about the gennie, or eating out of the freezer. I added about 20 gallons of gasoline out of habit, but pumping gas (while gloved) is actually about as much retail as I’m willing to do ATM.
Not to worry, hurricane season is fast approaching here in the Gulf. As the recent tornadoes pointed out, mother nature isn’t on lockdown.
nick
Zero, (kinda) working on the nuke side of the house, there are a number of people that can be called in, and they’re taking control room integrity super seriously. Even drinking water plant crews are locking themselves in. You can shut a plant down gracefully and cool down if things are basically ok – you still have power from somewhere and a heat sink. Running as part of the grid is much harder.
Sorry, hit send before the shoutout to all the utilities guys keeping society running. Nothing but respect. You’re essential, and you don’t get treated like it. One urban blackout will change that bullshit quick.
Re: state visitor restrictions– none of this would be needed if people just stay the hell home!
“Money” is nothing but a utility. What if the grid (or properly energy distribution systems) keep going but your money does not work? I have three neighbors now laid off work, two likely permanently. They are getting only a small portion of their usual monthly money supply (un employment). One told me about the “2 trillion” printed up and he was looking forward to that 1200. I explained that the fed also printed up 4 trillion for the banks, so that was really 6 trillion printed. His eyes crossed when I asked him how that is going to affect inflation. If he is only getting 1/4 of his money needs/month, his money is “grid down” so to speak. Can’t have power/water/gas if you cannot afford to pay. When regular working stiffs cannot pay their mortgage, keep the lights on or buy food, this place is gonna burn.
“none of this would be needed if people just stay the hell home!”
— so how much time, energy and money are spent in the prepper world on “bugging out”? Which by definition is people NOT staying home?
–how many stories were written and plans made by preppers to “get out before the quarantine”?
–if you were seeing the pics of body bags in freezer trucks and were looking around your 5th floor walk up in NYFC, if you had the means, wouldn’t YOU be GTFO of Dodge?
SRSLY. (not so seriously) This is WHY the NG quarantines plague towns. This is why FEMA buys warehouses full of temporary coffins (remember those pics?)
Everyone thinks they’re ok and they NEED to move when under orders not to, including half the prepper-sphere. We’re at least notionally ready for a shelter in place order. Those other schmucks don’t have 1 day’s worth of food in the house, let alone 2 months. I’d bet most “preppers” can’t stay home for two months for that matter. Before Ebola, I’d have been hard pressed to stay in for that long- it just wasn’t something I prepped for. I prepped for short duration, limited scope disasters. Ebola opened my eyes, especially Aesop’s “fearmongering” and “over-reaction”, and our host’s steady drumbeat of preps helped normalize the idea too.
Hopefully it won’t get to the point where I need to use the preps I got from the “Metals Pimp” 🙂 but if I do, I know who to thank for the heads up!
nick
I do not think they are “bugging out” of NY, NJ, CT, etc.
They are also going to Maine, NH, etc.
They don’t have cars full of food and gear, they have swimsuits and pool noodles.
Hell, they are on vacation, they want ti visit their relatives in south Florida and maybe get some beach time.
They may not have bags from tactical tailor, but they are bugging out… and they see where there is more stuff and fewer people making demands on it.
n
(for now. when it hits the smaller places, the little regional health centers are woefully underequipped during normal times and will be wiped out during this)
Which is why you should know where your Governor, Mayor, DA and police chief live…. Doom on me, then doom on you…
ISG breaks up disasters into categories.
1- High intensity/ short duration
Rough example- car crash, gunfight
2- Medium intensity/ medium duration
Rough example- Hurricane Katrina
3- Low intensity/ long term
Rough example- Russia going communist, Great Depression.
Of course a type 2 event could have type 1 moments. In terms of planning it is still useful.
Most long term events have at least some degree of power and elements of normalicy.