The media really is the most blatant example of the self-licking ice cream cone when it comes to the end of the world. Anyone remember a few weeks ago when, after the US turned an Iranian general into aerosol form, the media was telling us World War III was about to start? And how it was a foolish military event that would precipitate the Middle East plunging into chaos and the draft would be reinstated and we’d all die at the hands of Iranian sleeper squads and…and…and…:::crickets:::. The Iranians lobbed some missiles to save face in the eyes of their neighbors and…thats been about it.
But, oh the wailing and gnashing of teeth that the media engaged in.
And now, the Chinese have, somehow, got a virus going on that’s going to sweep the planet and we’re all going to catch it. OMG!!!11!!!11111!
:::yawn::: I’ve been to this dance before. Let’s see….SARS, Bird Flu, Ebola, and at least a few other strains of flu. And in every single case there was no impact bigger than what a heavy snowfall would cause in a major city. No barricades, no cities being cordoned off, no martial law, no empty grocery shelves.
Just think how traffic-free the commute will be afterwards
Look, I’m not a medical professional. I’m not even a medical hobbyist or amateur. But what I am is someone who has heard ‘the sky is falling’ from the media so many times that it’s hard no t to be jaded. Especially when, according to MSNBC, we were all supposed to be radioactive debris from Iranian nuclear bombs a few weeks ago. Sure, maybe this time the media is right but….good grief, what are the odds of that? People with a more medical background, like Aesop or Reltney may tell me I’m wrong and that I should be taking this a tad more seriously than I am but…I dunno…
Look, I’ve already got enough food, fuel, water, power, ammo, etc. to let me lock the door and sit here for a few months if I really needed to. So even if the media actually rolled a seven this time, I’m pretty sure I’ll be fine. Especially since it looks like hand washing and regular flu precautions (not licking doorknobs, etc) seems to be the way to stop the spread. Wash my hands? Not let people sneeze into my mouth? I can do that.
Anything different at Zero’s humble abode? Nope. Not a thing. No last minute grocery hoarding, no 55-gallon drum of Purell, no pallet of bleach wipes, no hazmat suit. Business as usual with the only noticeable change being even less desire than normal to engage in air travel. And at a reported(!) 5% mortality rate, I’m just not concerned. Wake me when Capt. Trips gets released..then I’ll get busy.
I looked for that movie the other day on Netflix and Amazon prime and couldn’t find it. Hmmm…now I want to watch it even more! LOL
Bought a copy on DVD at Walmart for a couple of bucks.
Might want to click over to Mish talk for another perspective.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/
Keep calm and do not listen to anything the lame stream media has to shriek about.
Soylent Green is People! You must tell all the people!
Media success is entirely predicated on the West’s 3-day attention span. WWIII(!), coronovirus, Kobe Bryant, etc. I suppose by Wednesday we’ll roll back the putrid corpse of ‘impeachmet’ to see how the worms are doing, but by Friday that should be essentially over. We’ll need a new “crisis” by the weekend.
Coronavirus is what you come up with when the wheels are falling off the Trump impeachment wagon, and that wagon is also gloriously aflame.
As I noted on my blog, last year, just in the U.S., garden variety flu killed >8000 people.
No one broke a sweat, let alone the media.
Coronovirus would have to infect 160,000 people in the U.S to get to those numbers, because it only has about a 5% mortality rate (unlike, e.g. Ebola, which runs from 66-90%).
It may get to that many infections in the U.S., but we’re not there yet.
To date, we have 5 cases.
Wash your hands.
If you’re out and about, wear an N95 mask.
If it gets worse than that, stay home.
Problem solved.
The bigger issue is that it has a 2-14 day incubation period, so the half-@$$#& screening for fever at the airport CDC is doing lets 98% of infected people past the screening before they’re contagious, virtually guaranteeing that we’ll get 160K infections, or more.
Kabuki theater genius level protection, right there.
If the government ever comes to “help” you, save time: shoot them in the face.
If it’s the CDC, do a Mozambique Drrill on them. With a shotgun.
The real threat in all of this is not another virus mutating to make the jump from animals to humans (the official story). The real threat would be if this is a weaponized particle that escaped from the Level 4 bio lab in Wuhan. If so this could potentially become a real problem very quickly. Coincidentally – a team of Chinese researchers was ejected last year from the Canadian National lab for stealing samples of a particularly virulent strain and sending them to China (Wuhan).
A weaponized virus might exhibit characteristics such as a very small size and weight to allow it to float in the air increasing the chances of being inhaled, communicability while in the incubation period, and ability to mutate quickly to avoid countermeasures. Since we now have samples of the virus due to the confirmed cases here in the U.S. we’ll be able to compare them to what was taken fro the Canadian lab and see if that worst case theory holds water.
Regards
Firstly, thank you, CZ, for the mention.
Secondly, I have read Aesop’s take on things, and I suspect that I have nothing to add. Here’s his take:
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/01/in-case-you-missed-it-earlier.html
Considering Aesop’s citation of a 5% case fatality rate, I’m only mildly concerned. Aesop noted that thousands of Americans die annually, attributed to influenza, yet there is no terror in the streets, and no media hand wringing over the Deadly! MENACE! that influenza presents. Hell, I have to encourage folks to get vaccinated against influenza, and still I get pushback.
Then there is the issue of “what are the demographics of the fatalities?” My wager is that the elderly, the very young, and folks on immunosuppressive therapy (such as recipients of organ transplants, or long term high dose steroids: arthritis or severe asthmatics, I’m looking at YOU!) are at particularly high risk of becoming very ill, and dying. In addition, pulmonary disease patients (COPD, bad asthmatics, and suchlike) as well as renal disease patients and diabetics should consider themselves to be facing potentially bad illness from this thing.
Finally, echoing Aesop’s counsel ref protective measures, if you take effective measures to avoid/reduce your own (youthful)(robust) susceptibility to acquiring The Virus Du Jour, you have thereby both mitigated the risk of your own self of becoming miserably ill, as well as transmitting that selfsame illness to others in your family/tribe, perhaps very much more susceptible to lethal effects thereof. (say, your elderly parents? Or young kids? or pregnant wife?)
“Since we now have samples of the virus due to the confirmed cases here in the U.S. we’ll be able to compare them to what was taken fro the Canadian lab and see if that worst case theory holds water.”
–do you think they’ll make an announcement of what they find? CDC won’t even list the states that currently have cases under investigation and that’s a purely domestic issue.
–CDC said on their briefing call that most of the fatalities are among older people with existing health problems. https://www.cdc.gov/media/
–I think the chinese actions speak louder than any words they might share in that the stuff they’re doing is not appropriate for a bad flu, but is appropriate for a killer. They’ve just delayed the entire country’s return to school indefinitely.
–how long before chinese products start to be in short supply? Or chinese parts and material for other country’s products? What does that mean for our ports? Our financial system that is built on always finding a ‘bigger fool’, selling dollars and TBills to the chinese, and endlessly expanding consumerism?
–canned food, clean water, bleach, masks, and hand sanitizer…… just sayin’
nick
I agree with you Nick, this looks like a case far beyond even the SARS virus back in 2005. Problem is, the health of the Chinese economy directly impacts the world in the way the U.S. economy used too. “When the U.S. economy gets the sniffles the rest of the world catches a cold” used to be the saying. Less so now.
The Chinese will be running things as the dominant power in 20 years. If the U.S. stock market crashes ( which the Fed will do anything to prevent – up to full out buying a majority of stocks like the Japanese – the entire house of cards here folds ) This outbreak is one of the things that is out of the control of the Fed and thus a real danger to the stability of the U.S. We are at the point that just the smallest pinprick will burst the bubble and collapse the economy.
I want to be even handed and “hope for the best but prepare for the worst” but the behavior of the PRC right now strongly suggest the worst – Their goal is to prevent social unrest first and foremost among their population. If panic sets in and the CCP starts to lose control – THEN the really fun stuff will begin because the leadership will do anything to focus the attention of the country outside of China – like invade Taiwan for instance. Now THAT will crash the market for sure and then all bets are off. It’s a slippery slope then.
It’s interesting – years ago, when I go my minor in microbiology I never thought it would be of much use. Lately it’s been coming in handy. Along with those classes in Abnormal Psychology… 😀
Regards
Looks like wall st. caught Wuflu,bonds dropped like they got cholera now stocks are getting laid out(Wuflu or Trump impeachment failure?) The Chinese overreaction is about virtue signalling as WHO/CDC are shaming Chicoms about SARS/Bird flu/African pig flu in the near past.
First transmission here wife/husband in county that had more flu deaths that worldwide Wuflu fatalities when announced.
Market drop = SALE! Time to buy!
Yep. I’m still more likely to get taken out by a drunk driver* than by this flu. When the flu/drunk driver odds flip I’ll start to worry.
*I live in Wisconsin, the drunkest state in the nation.
A question for those saying a 5% mortality rate. How did you come up with this number? Oh yeah, you used the Chicom gov. figures. That’s just the ticket for accuracy. Kinda like internet warriors that claim 1 moa with their monkey made Century AK with junk Russian TULA ammo that they killed a griz with one shot at 500 yards with. Don’t trust that info. Second, the missus’ was also a RN working ER and then employee health. She told me best practice for the N95 is to test fit to make sure you are sealed. There is a way to test this but she said just spray something that you can smell really well and see if you can still smell it. If you can, you got a leak. No facial hair. Correct size. Also big thing- if you have certain medical conditions they are not to be used. Things like lung disease (she told me what kind but they all sounded like Greek to me) and some heart diseases.
Good points, particularly about the N-95 tutorial.
Ref the Chicom reported 5% mortality, you are correct:
bullshit in->bullshit out.
However, those are the (imperfect) numbers that we have.
I suspect that Aesop might note that actual numbers, however imperfect, are superior to the scientific process of “Just making it up”.
Although, to be honest, THAT might be the process used by Our Neighbors To The East.
Already the numbers have gone up again. Remember where we were just 3 days ago!
Now we learn that they won’t let the CDC come take a look around, and the CDC says they don’t know stuff because the Chinese haven’t told them.
If we start seeing deaths among the few cases we have access to, that’ll be a pretty good sign the chinese have been understating the death rate.
Note also that we’re not hearing about or seeing any massive effort to FEED and WATER the quarantined cities. WHY NOT? Do they just expect the whole city to die? They’re gonna get pretty hungry soon…
We’ll know it got serious when the media suddenly shuts up. Then we’re in the sh!t.
nick
I find the timing of this to be extremely suspicious. As soon as the Democrats finished their peach mint testimony and it moved to the Republican’s defense, the coronavirus took over the news (and a splash of Kobe Bryant for good measure). I think even the GDB (generally dumb public) are tired of hearing about mass shootings everytime the news needs to be shifted away from something.
My brother, a resident of Hong Kong, reports that a Hong Kong University epidemiologist reports an R0 of 5.
Or, as I explained it to him, R0 is equivalent to my own made up term of (Da City) art: HMMFWEIMFI: How Many MFers Will Each Infected MFer, Infect. This (present) answer is about 5.
If accurate, could mean asymptotic increase if case volume.
Better pray that most cases are mild flu like.
That’s a yes, but.
If you have immunocompromised or elderly family members, they need to both get the vaccines (pneumonia is more important than the flu one), and to be very careful around potentially sick people in public.
Use soap to wash hands – often. Follow up with hand lotion, to prevent chapped hands from being a source of infection entry. Use a hand towel to open the bathroom door in public places – you wouldn’t believe how many people don’t wash, or only use the sanitizer.
If someone in your household does get sick, get the Tamiflu or other antiviral meds – it worked dramatically with my grandson who came down with Influenza A – he was back at school within 5 days. Quarantine them from the rest of the family, and sanitize anything they touch. For that, I have to bless my more-than-a-little OCD son-in-law, who keeps the house spotless and germ-free.
Good home nursing is critical. A stay-at-home parent/caregiver is a blessing.
Lay in some supplies:
– Yes, those stupid-looking masks (N95 variety). In a real outbreak, they will be impossible to get. Locally, they were sold out – I managed to get one of the last of the supplies.
– Alcohol (rubbing, as it is cheaper, but the other kind wouldn’t hurt either).
– Bandages – open sores are a potential pathway for infection.
– Antibiotic ointment.
– Sanitizing wipes – makes quick cleanups much more convenient, and gets rid of potentially infectious materials on the spot.
– Tylenol for aches and pains – aspirin in contraindicated, as it can lead to life-threatening complications.
– Tissues – don’t stint on the softer ones, it makes a huge difference when you’re going through drippy noses.
– Individual meds:
– Decongestants
– Cough meds – helps the sufferer sleep
– Vicks (this is a personal like)
– Cough drops
– Electrolytic fluids – Gatorade is cheap, and it works well.
If you or a family member gets sick, don’t panic. Think of it as building up the immune system. Keep decently hydrated, be in the habit of consuming nutritious meals, and exercise when healthy. The best defense is a healthy lifestyle.
Commander: I assume that you are aware of the JAMA article linked to at WRSA. In case you are not, I copied-and-pasted the link. Assuming that the authors are indeed providing real information, well, there you are.
Of course, in the event that the authors wish to avoid the Chi Com equivalent of being “Epstein-ed”, perhaps it is all bullshit.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=020720
February 9, 2020 at 6:04 AM