Shortages, unavailability and outright “we haven’t had those for a while now” are usually the hallmarks of Something Going On. Usually it takes place immediately before or during a Big Event. Much like trying to buy snow shovels right before a blizzard or bottled water during a hurricane.
The two biggest examples of shortages that I am aware of taking place right now are a) ammo and b) FDF (freeze dried foods).
Anyone who is looking for cheap .223 and (esp.) 7.62×39 can tell you that it’s fairly hard to find at the moment. I have heard many rumours and only a few of them seem plausible.
• AK/AR ammo, like Wolf, is being diverted to fill overseas demand and contracts due to the war (given the huge amounts of 7.62×39 being found in Iraqi bunkers this seems unlikely, although logistically it may make sense to simply order in containers full of ammo rather than try and coordinate bringing it in piecemeal from across the war zone.)
• AK ammo, like Wolf, is being used to fill huge contracts with the US military to be used for foreign-weapons (meaning “AK47”) familiarization training with troops here in the US before they ship out (This seems very plausible to me.)
• The largest importer is tangling with BATFE/other agencies and that’s slowing it down. (Heard one person ‘in the biz’ mention this but that doesn’t explain the lack of ‘no name’ ammo out there.)
• Increased fuel costs have led to prohibitively high shipping costs and that is affecting imports.
Please don’t add your own theory or facts about this…my point isn’t about why theres a shortage. My point is that there exists a shortage for some reason.
FDF is also in the ‘backordered’ category these days…at least as packaged in #10 cans. The guys at Mountain House tell me that after Katrina, product demand spiked and then calmed down a bit but is now high enough again to result in backorders. Cause? Beats me. Im guessing bird flu hype and continued Katrina aftermath.
Will these shortages end? Of course…nature abhors a vacuum and so does business. As long as theres folks wanting cases of FDF and 7.62×39 theres going to be someone willing to fill that need. In the meantime this is an excellent example of why you stockpile this stuff when the sun is shining, the paychecks are steady and all is right in the universe. “Don’t wait until you are thirsty to dig a well”, etc, etc, etc.
I’m doing ok..I’ve got a good stash of .308 and 7.62×39 in the bunker…not as much as I’d like (it never is, y’know?) but its enough to handle anything short of a Somalia-type of infrastructure collapse. Plenty of #10 cans of Mountian House but these shortages definitely make me want to stock up on more when they become available again.
On the other side of the equation, now is an outstanding time to stock up on 8×57 ammo and 7.62x54R guns & ammo. The Mosin Nagant rifles are dealering out for less than $75 each and a case of ammo is cheap enough to get a gun and ammo for less than $125. Order it through Century Arms and pay flat rate shipping for it…a huge savings when youre shipping 70# of ammo across country. These guns won’t be around much longer….the Yugo SKS’ are starting to dry up and the cheap Nagants won’t be far behind. For a little over a hundred bucks you can have a rifle and a case of ammo to stash away.
There are a few goodies that we all need to stock that are impossible to manufacture ourselves or to find multiple sources for… FDF is usually limited to just 2 or 3 manufacturers. Same thing for lithium batteries, quality radio gear, etc, etc. Some items, like knives, for example, are available from so many different quality makers that a shortage of one manufacturer doesn’t mean much to you. If Buck is out, get Gerber, or Becker, or Glock, or Remington, or Cold Steel, or CK&T, or Spyderco, or…. Get the idea? But some products just don’t have that many alternates. FDF is a very good example of that. Batteries are a good example…I like lithium AA batts for my smaller gear but AFAIK theres only one or two brands offering them. I can get alkaline AA from anywhere but lithiums…that’s another story. Im sure if you sat down and thought it out carefully you could think of other necessary gear/products that have a similar bottleneck.
Obviously one of the biggest possibilities when it comes to a shortage is firearms. They can be made unavailable, literally, with a stroke of the pen. Don’t think so? Think about the 1986 prohibition on new machineguns for civilians and where prices and availability went afterwards. Also OEM (‘factory’) parts can be hamstrung almost as easily. So if you don’t have a spare copy of your favorite gun, at least get some spare barrels, springs and other parts…and for Crom’s sake get another couple of magazines, will ya?. Ammo is also an easy target, so to speak…during the LA Riots the local government there suspended the sale of ammo and guns. If you were out of #4 buck for your 870 you better hope the looters will be sympathetic to your plight.
If you really think youre going to be able to buy what you need when you need it you may be in for an unpleasant surprise. When the power goes out don’t expect to be able to wander down to the local stop-n-rob and pick up a pack of Duracells.
So, todays project, mi amigos y amigas, is to think about what kind of shortage would cause you some grief right now and then go out and negate that problem by stocking up as best you can… take the hundred bucks you were gonna use for steaks, beer and a movie this weekend and buy something a little more lasting and a lot more useful….
AK ammo
might be due to resticting import liscencing limiting amounts that can be imported in. thank to cronies of bush whom want to sell their domestic ammo by delibertly stopping cheaper ammo from overseas. as for shortages of freezedried foods, it may be due to bush plans to fight china or invade iran. anycase be seeing shortages of one thing or another on many shelves, wondering if the original factories are being retooled for supplying war goods?
recomend get prepared for the worst before june this year.what do you think? Wildflower 06
Just a couple of quick things for you.
On battlefield ammo: During the Vietnam war the US would drop 7.62×39 behind enemy lines, this stuff was loaded with a pistol powder like bullseye. End result was the gun exploded in the users face. This is why troops should only use ammo from a known good source.
On the FDF particularly Mountain House: AR-15.com’s Survival forum had two group buy’s for Mountain House foods recently that totaled over $160,000 in product. They (MH) expect to have more available by late April. Due to some personality conflicts these buys will no longer be happening at AR15.com. However warrifles.com has given the people who handle the Mountian House sales a new home.
As for gear and spare parts I am stocking up like mad. Illinois is trying to ban black rifles like crazy and I can’t leave the state for another 4 years. I have plans to move to Missouri after that.
Also one of the MH resellers (Safecastle LLC) had an awesome deal for March that he advertised on falfiles.com.
I picked up 8 cases of #10 cans for $649 on that special, won’t have it for at least a month though. Enough food for the wife and I for 4 months.
Here’s what I’m short of:
1) Ammo (Need more .30-06, .308, .223 and .30-30. Have a couple thousand rounds of 9mm, have about a thousand rounds of 7.62×39, and about 200 rounds of 7.62x54r. First priority is .30-06, then .223, then .308, then .30-30.)
2) Batteries (have a couple packs of AAs and Ds, but that’s it. I need to go Costco shopping for 50-packs of AAs and get a bunch of Ds. Getting some NiMH batteries and a solar charger or two could be helpful. I want to have at least 100 “emergency only” batteries ready in each size.)
3) FDF. (We have non, period. It’d be nice to pick up a few crates of MREs or Mountain Home.)
4) Potable water. We’ve got maybe 10 gallons of Arrowhead water here, a few cardboard trays of bottle water, some bleach, and a MSR Miniworks water filter pump. It’d behoove me to get at least two more filter cartridges (even though they last a while), some containers to let nearby creek water settle, etc.
5) Generator gas. None on hand. I used the last of it to top off my car, as the gas needed to be rotated anyway. I want to get at least 10 gallons of stabilized generator gas stocked up and good to go. While I’m at it, I need to warm up and change the oil on the Coleman generator.
Yeah, we’re in somewhat of a bind here, but I’m short on cash, and the folks (hey, I’m in college, I live at home…it’s cheap!) think that even if The Big One (earthquake) were to strike, they’d be able to drive down to the grocery store, pick up supplies, etc. Or, if that failed, they’d head over to their more-prepared friend three miles away. Through curvy roads. With lots of easily-tipped trees. On foot. Yeah, right. Discussions about preparing inevitably lead to them dismissing my suggestions completely out of hand, and saying “oh, we’re fine…we’ve got plenty of food” (but if the gas is off, we have no means of actually cooking the food, and what happens after a day without refrigeration?).
*sigh*
ah
solar chargers can be purchased at Northern Tools or West Marine outlets; as for those silly enough not to prepare, how about gift wrapped body bags for their own use.
as for food, consider can and dried foods from local markets? even if future diet is rice, beans, and cornbeef; better than nothing.
live free forever, Wildflower 06
I’m okay on food storage and as okay as I can probably be on water storage (barrels, 5-7 gallon cans, Berkey, and a stream). I could use more kerosene, but I’ve got enough to get through a winter (heaters and lamps). I would like more gasoline, but hubby isn’t comfortable with my storing more. When he was a child, his house burned to the ground, so he’s not comfortable with storing large amounts of gasoline. We have enough to get out of town and out to my sister’s place (our bugout location).
Needs:
1) I need more spare spare parts for my M1A because hubby helpfully moved the box they were in to the basement, and now it’s been swallowed by the gaping blackness therein. I suppose I will have to put on my caving hardhard and spelunk through the darkest recesses of my dark and scary basement, a feat that may be worse than facing the Apocalypse.
2) I could use more .223. I’m not desperately short of it (got about 4K), but I’d feel better if I had a few more cases. I’m okay on .308, 7.62×39, and 7.62x54R, and I’m set on reloading supplies.
3) I’d like to have more silver, but it’s getting expensive. I wish I’d started buying it back when it was $3-$5 an oz.!
Re: 3) I wish I had less silver right now. I am not sure how easy it is going to be to sell 100oz bars. The most I paid for silver was $6.50 in 2004, but the majority was bought in 2001-2002, lowest price was $4.58.
I want to call my friendly PM dealer and see if he will swap gold for my silver at par.
Perhaps they’ll be more popular if the ETF becomes a reality? I don’t buy anything larger than the 10 oz. bars.
10 oz silver?
am perferable to junk silver coins, eisier to negotiate as trading money or metal. be surprised, most will take printed cash over silver or gold on the falsehood that cash will restore itself in value after a total collapse. seen this with historical records regaurding failed currency hoarded after the civil war, even up to the iraq war.
but it is your choice, Wildflower 06