This article was interesting to read. It posits that it isn’t enough for science to learn to predict catastrophic events, science also has to learn how to get that information to people in such a way that they actually do something about it.
This is a fair example of a term that we see pop up from time to time but no one ever really explains – normalcy bias. Wikipedia, naturally, defines it but the short version is this: you’re used to planes NOT hitting skyscrapers, you’re used to people NOT running into a bar and shooting the place up with AKs, you’re used to the earth NOT suddenly shaking and toppling buildings…and when an event like that does finally happen, many people’s brains, not being used to thinking about such things, kinda freeze up. That’s normalcy bias. That’s also why we wargame stuff…fire drills, for example.
Another buzzword that became popular and still pops up is ‘Black Swan’, as in “a Black Swan event”. Again, wikipedia helps us out. A Black Swan event is something that is so statistically rare and infrequently occurring that you can’t really predict it’s occurrence. It is important to note that a Black Swan event is NOT always negative…the development of the internet, for example. One of the criteria for something being a Black Swan event, as stated by the guy who brought the term into popular use, is that it is a complete surprise, it has a huge impact, and it is Monday Morning Quarterbacked afterwards. It is also subjective…whats a Black Swan to you may not be a Black Swan to someone else. An excellent example is this idiot. A power outage occurs, they suffer, and then they rationalize it…and add a dose of normalcy bias to justify their failure.
I was watching a really bad disaster show on SyFy last night. Typical midwestern farm town, huge black clouds ominously roll across the sky and the townspeople…walk out of their shops and stand in the middle of the street to watch. And they continue to stand there as it approaches, hurling debris and automobiles in their general direction. Why? Because they’re slack-jawed at never having seen such things before. You’d think someone would have the brains to turn around, run back in the building, get on the phone, warn their family, and then hustle to the basement. Normalcy bias.
While the Black Swan event is, by definition, unpredictable we can still prepare for consequences even if we can’t predict the event. We don’t know if it’s going to be a flood, tornado, earthquake, the return of Xenu, planet X, or Red Dawn….but we can be pretty sure of what the consequences will be – electrical failure, infrastructure issues, communication issues, etc, etc. And we can prepare for those. I think for most of us, we’re a bit past normalcy bias because we tend to think a good deal about ‘what if’ situations.
Preparing for the ‘Black Swan’ type of event reminds me of the ‘Tenth Man‘ response. In fact, go watch the video…the Mossad guy gives some very good examples of normalcy bias.
Anyway, ‘normalcy bias’ and ‘Black Swan’ are two buzzwords that seem to appear more and more in various articles on the subject of preparedness and I thought it might be a good idea to explore them.
A Normalcy Bias Vignette:
Me (to wheelchair-bound friend): You need to set things up so you aren’t trapped here inside the garage if the power goes out.
WF: That’s not gonna happen.
Me: If it does?
WF: Sigh. I can go out the service door.
Me: You got too much crap in the way to get to it.
WF: Grr. Then I can open the inside power door by hand!
Me: Try it. (knowing she can’t do it)
WF: Ugh. Too hard. I’ll press the button for the overhead door.
Me: But the power’s out, remember?
WF: That’s not gonna happen!
(One second later, the planned outage happened; she didn’t know about it while I did. The timing was pure coincidence- there is a god.)
WF: Why isn’t this working?!
Me: The power’s out. Now what’re you gonna do?
WF: I’ll just die!
Me: Your choice. I’d rather you lived.
WF: (lotsa expletives deleted)
(She didn’t talk to me for a while after that.)
PS: There’s a clear path out now through the service door but still no way to open any powered doors if the juice is out. Baby steps.
There might be a new facet to normalcy bias. Everyone walks around with a camera in their phone, and way too many want a video or photo for their favorite social media when they see something unusual. Saw that during our floods last fall. Why are you taking pictures when the road you are on is collapsing into the river?
It took me a number of years post-9/11 to understand normalcy bias a little better. A friend of mine who was in the WTC when it got attacked (he got out) told me about it – when something new and bad is happening, don’t count on anyone else to recognize it and to tell you what to do. Don’t count on anyone to tell you that suddenly the rules are different. You’re in a public building that catches fire? Hell, if you have to, grab a chair, break a window and make your own exit, but get OUT before you can’t get out. New rules. But you have to recognize that, it’s not likely someone will be around with their head screwed on straight who will tell you. And, if you’ve practiced, walked through the actions needed, or at least tried to visualize “what if” before, you’ll have a much better chance of escaping whatever it is that is suddenly in your face.
This applies to all kinds of “black swan” events that until the moment it happens, you’ve only seen on tv or in the movies.
If large crowds or cities of panicked folks are involved, add to your list to consider the danger the panicked crowd might pose to you in addition to the threat. In Florida 10 years ago, the rash of four+ hurricanes we had in about 6 weeks was a real eye opener for me. People were getting into fistfights at Home Depot BEFORE the storm arrived over things like arguments about how many pieces of plywood you could buy for your windows before the store ran out and the store was rationing it. This was a day or two before it hit and it wasn’t even that bad, think how bad it would be if the lights went off and stayed off for a while. In a sense, the four hurricanes were a kind of Black Swan event here. Central Florida hadn’t had a hurricane since 1958, not gonna happen, right? Then BAM! Four of them in a couple of weeks.