Monthly Archives: January 2022

Article – Defense Against Bears with Pistols: 97% Success rate, 37 incidents by Caliber

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I engaged in a search for instances where pistols were used to defend against bears. I and my associates have found 37 instances that are fairly easily confirmed. The earliest happened in 1987, the latest mere months ago. The incidents are heavily weighted toward the present, as the ability to publish and search for these incidents has increased, along with increases in bear and human populations, and the carry of pistols.

The 37 cases include one that can fairly be described as a “failure”.

Living in western Montana means bears (and mountain lions, some wolves, maybe a wendigo or sasquatch). I don’t get out in the hills nearly as much as I used to, or want to, but in over 35 years I have run into bears exactly twice. First time I had my HiPower with me and I did, in fact, feel undergunned. (Although the accompanying article shows that FMJ 9mm actually acquits itself nicely.) Second time I had a rifle and felt a bit more confident.

Most people’s knee-jerk reaction to bears is a .44 pistol and I’m no different. I picked up a lovely limited-edition Ruger specifically for bearbusting. What I think is a better choice is a Glock 10mm longslide….the Model 40. While .44 Mag is no slouch, the G40 holds two-and-a-half times the capacity at less weight. But, really, any gun is better than no gun.

The article goes on to mention that handguns succeeded in stopping bear attacks in about 97% of the reported cases. In several the human simply fired a round or two two scare the bruin away…in others, the bear had to be dissuaded in a more terminal way.

Bear spray? I met the guy who invented it years ago. True story: for a while the bear spray could not be marketed as such because it had not been proven to be ‘safe’ to use on bears. BUT it could be sold as people spray for use against criminals because there was no requirement to show it was safe to use against humans.

I seldom carry bear spray. I already have too much crap hanging off me when I’m running around in the woods. I’m not inclined to do an escalation of force in the few seconds I have between being a bears target and being a bears lunch. I ‘d go straight to the nuclear hand grenade if I had one. Until I get my Glock20 I’ll carry the Ruger .44 with some rather penetrative hard cast bullets.

For those of you who wonder about the efficacy of handguns vs. bears this article should prove interesting. But, keep in mind that a handgun is never the first choice if you have the option of using your rifle.

 

Now Im curious what Plan B is

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This is interesting, if a bit sobering. It’s a simulation of a conventional war going nuclear.

This four-minute audio-visual piece is based on independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets. It uses extensive data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict from tactical, to strategic to city-targeting phases.

(H/T to RobertaX for the above information)

Do I think something like what is going on in Russia will lead to a big nukefest like in this video? No, I do not. I have always firmly believed that the next time someone opens up a can of nuclear whoopass it will either be some terrorist group with a stolen nuclear artillery shell from a collapsed Soviet Union, or, it’ll be two smaller powers settling long-standing grudges (India v. Pakistan, Israel v…well..everyone, etc.)

Nonetheless, the possibility does exist and as such it’s probably not a bad idea to pivot your preps a little in that direction. Dean Ing’s book ‘Pulling Through’ tells the fictional story of a family hiding out in a basement for two weeks waiting for the fallout to drop, and the movie ‘Threads’ will stir you so deeply that you’ll rent a Uhaul and go loot your local WalMart pre-emptively.

I remember back in the 80’s actually going to my library and doing this sort of research on my own. Fascinating how the times have changed to the point that I can get all that info without the days and days of prowling the stacks of government bulletins and reports.

By the way, I am notoriously wrong when it comes to predicting the future. But…war doesn’t make economic sense. Sun Tzu said the greatest victory is the battle you do not have to fight. Quark says that you should never spend more than you need to for an acquisition..If Putin can get what he wants when the price is low, that is to say without having to spend men and treasure, he’s going to do that. If Ukraine can get what it wants when the price is low, that is to say without being invaded or occupied, theyre going to do that. We’ll see if I’m wrong, but I see this going the way of the Cuban Missile Crisis…backroom and back-channel deals are made to nip things in thebud before they get too out of control.

Goalkeeping

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My financial goals are usually pretty simple – increase amount of money in a particular account or fund by xx%. For 2022 my goal was to increase my emergency fund by 50%. I figured that might take me into the summer or late fall before I achieved that. But, 12000 rounds of .30-06 and .50 BMG later, I seem to have hit my goal 11 months early. Go me! So that frees up money I was allocating towards that goal to now be free to go to other things. Like what? Well, increase my HSA, gold, and silver stash by 50% also. And when that’s done, funnel every penny into getting that piece of land later this year. That’ll be the major accomplishment if I can pull that off.

If interest rates are indeed going up, then I am hoping that the real estate market will cool a bit and prices will come down to unreasonable from their current high of what-the-hell-are-you-thinking.

And, fortuitously, I got a raise at work so I can have a little more every paycheck to tuck away into things like gold and silver. I’d thought about keeping my emergency fund in gold to protect it from inflation but when you need your toilet back in working order right now, that is not the time to find out what plumber does and does not take 1/10 Eagles.

I know that financial stuff isn’t nearly a sexy and fun as gear-and-gun stuff. But…it’s gotta get done. Bunkers just don’t finance themselves. And 90% of the diasaters you and I are likely to face in the immediate future are resolved with fifty dollar bills rather than .50 BMG.

Article – Scientists used computer to predict exactly when society will collapse in 21st century

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Scientists during the 1970s used a computer and observations on changing trends to predict exactly when society would collapse.

The scientific observation was carried out by a group of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) more than five decades ago.

According to their findings, the prediction made was that society would crumble near the midpoint of the 21st century in 2040.

…….

In 2009, a different team of researchers did a similar study which American Scientist published.

They issued that the model’s results were “almost exactly on course some 35 years later” – with a few appropriate assumptions.

The predictions have not been invalidated and appear to be quite on target.

As I’ve said, more than once, unless you’re the guy who actually has his finger on the Big Red Button no one can say with any real authority when the end of the world is going to happen. It can happen over a length of time that is measured in years, or it can happen in a literal instant/ No one knows. Of course, you can observe events and come to your own conclusions about the likelihood of things happening and when, but normally … no, no one knows.

While I recognize that at any moment the Yellowstone volcano can go off, an asteroid may hit, or Wuhan Flu may evolve into a species-killer….the horse I’ve got money on is ‘Economic turbulence’ to win.

Fortunately, many perperations cover multiple forms of apocalypse….whether its the return of Xenu, a comet strike, or invasion by China you’ll still need the basics like food, water, ammo, meds, etc. So, while one size does not fit all, there is a lot of cross-apocalypse preps to be tucked away.

I’ve been hearing about the end of the world my entire adult life…it was the Soviets, Y2k, Bird flu, SARS, terrorism, peak oil, etc, etc….and yet I’m still here. But even a broken calendar is right once a year so…I keep living that quiet-yet-tactical life. haven’t really had much reason to regret it yet.

Not time to break the glass yet

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You pull the trigger too soon and you have that awkwardness of trying to get your job back after you quit to run for the hills. Pull the trigger too late and you’re trapped with the sheep. How do you look at the news and what’s going on around you and decide when the time is to quit the job, yank out the IRA, spend the mortgage payment on canned goods, leave the bills in the mailbox, load the truck, and head for the hills?

Its a tough call….if I knew with 100% absolute certainty that tomorrow at noon a hot World War III was gonna kick off with nukes and all the trimmings, I would…not show up for work, not pay my bills, abandon my mundane obligations, pack my gear, and head for the Beta Site. Wouldn’t you?

Now, lets say that sort of thing happens and….you’re wrong. Well, crap…you really burned a few bridges there, didn’t you. Not the least of which is getting your job back that you abandoned.

So, now comes the real problem: you want to be sensitive enough to whats going on around you that you recognize the triggers of the ‘preppers point of no return’ so you can beat the Golden Horde before they clog up the WalMarts and interstates..but…you want to be realistic enough to not go full Burt Gummer in what turns out to be a false alarm.

I’ve seen this before, several times. Most notably Y2k where people burned a lot of bridges…sold prime property, cashed out retirement, etc, etc, to buy food and wasteland in the desert to drop a trailer on because they were convinced that ‘this is it!’. And….it wasn’t. Or people who were convinced the Fukishima power plant was going to poison the atmosphere, or some oil well explosion would taint the oceans forever with some microbial sludge dredged up from the center of the earth, or Obama was going unleash UN troops to bring in black helicopters…you get the idea. Short version: Pretty much everything you hear about on Coast to Coast AM never happened.

Current situation? Lets see – inflation, shortages, high gas prices, pandemic, race issues, balkanized population, polarized politics, Russians doing Russian stuff, etc, etc. And, from what I see on the internet, it appears some of the more….committed….survivalists are saying ‘this is it!’

My opinion, which is worth exactly what you paid for it, is that this isn’t it. It is my highly unprofessional opinion that this isnt the time to write off the career, mortgage, and life that you’ve built so far and head to the hills. That time may be coming, but this isn’t it. What it is, however, is a time to bump yourself up a notch or two in terms of situational awareness. Is not time to head for the exits, but it might be time to make note of where they are and what the shortest route to them is.

It’s kind of a joke but:

There have been a lot of moments in the last thirty years that had people saying “this is is it!” and…it wasn’t it. Not even close. I’m not saying everything is going to be fine, or that there aren’t things that are concerning. I’m simply saying that I dont think we are at the point where you throw away your ‘normal’ life and head for the hills. Remember that ‘In Case Of Emergency, Break Glass’ that we used to see on fire extinguishers or alarms? Well, IMHO, its nowhere near time to break that glass yet.

Of course, it helps if you live a life of half-in-half-out of the normal and preparedness world. Maybe you already live at your bugout location. Or you’ve already gotten 90% of our preps amassed. Or you already live a life of constant vigilance and self-reliance. Honestly, thats the best way to go, in my opinion – not a hundred percent Burt Gummer, but not a hundred percent soccer mom. Rather you live half in each world at any given moment with the ability to go one hundred percent into whichever one is right at the moment.

For now, I’m the person straddling the line between lifestyles. Half the time I’m the corporate 9-to-5, paying bills, watching movies, eating fast food, and shopping at CostCo. The other half of the time Im stacking ammo cans, buying storage food, checking batteries, networking with like-minded people, filling gas cans, etc. I think thats the best place to be right now. If it goes in one direction, I’m ready to commit to that lifestyle; and if it goes in the other direction, I’m well set to operate in that one as well.

Interesting times, indeed.

Don’t just observe..observe and act

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There’s a fairly unremarkable post-apocalyptic book called ‘Wolf and Iron’ that had a character in it who was a social scientist of some sort, as I recall. In the book, he’s asked what he did before the end of the world and he tells how, as an observer of the social condition, he chronicled, recorded, and observed the world as it descended into the apocalypse. The person asking him the question then asks, if he saw it coming why didn’t he prepare for it? He answers that because of his training as a scientific observer, he didn’t let is experience and observations colour his own behavior lest they taint his research.

I was thinking about the today and I did my regular weekend shopping at the ‘Cos (WinCo and CostCo). I, and I’m sure you as well, notice the increases in price, the reduction in availability, the things that are and are not disappearing of the shelves, etc. I just need to keep in mind that observing and being aware of these things conveys no advantage to me unless I act upon those observations accordingly. Unlike the character in the book, I have no concern for my behaviour influencing my perceptions about the situation and what I observe.

And what have I observed? Gas prices were up a nickle locally. The chicken I like to buy went up 10% and is now limited to quantity you can purchase. Quantities in the meat case are reduced. The prices on everything seem to be going up. The .gov has no idea what its doing. As I’ve told people before, it’s just not smart to try and fix the hole in the hull at this point..nows the time to check your lifejacket and head for the boats.

I’ve a thirty year head start on this nonsense. I’ve increased my resilience to a level that puts me in a better position than most. not perfect…nothing ever is…but better than most. And now my goal is to maintain that resilience.

If you’re putting away money for a superrazoo 72″ high def TV, a jet ski, a new motorcycle, a trip to Greece, or anything like that I would suggest taking that money and buying whatever it is you don’t have now that will either be a) more expensive or b) unavailable at a later date. You’ll probably thank yourself later. Later this year you’ll be glad for the meat in the freezer, the extra toilet paper, the stored fuel, the cash in the safe, extra shoes and clothes, etc, etc and you won’t miss that TV at all. (In fact, you’ll probably be able to get it half-price from the grasshoppers next door.)

And if I’m wrong? Nothing bad happens.  You can still eat the food, use the fuel, wear the clothes, spend the money, and use the toilet paper. No big deal.

5.5# AR

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I picked up a KE Arms polymer AR lower a few weeks back. Palmetto was having a deal on a lightweight pencil-barrel upper with bolt carrier and charging handle. Well, why not? Put it together the other day and it is pretty light. Threw it on the scale and it came in at a touch over 5.5# with open sights. Its my understanding that if you spend the bucks and get a genuine WWSD rifle you drop the weight down to almost 5#. Thats about the same as an M1 carbine. And it’s about a pound lighter than a military M4 with 14.5″ barrel.

Gotta say, that poly lower seems pretty slick. I had heard good things about the old Cav Arms lowers and these are supposedly quite improved over them. I need to head to the range this weekend and dump a few rounds through it and get it sighted in, but it’s pretty nice.

Although I have a bucket full of stripped lowers sitting here, I think I might need to pick up a half dozen of these lowers and put together some more guns. I rather like the lightweight nature and how all the weight is carried out front.

Humour – Gun Bunny Rehab

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“Guns are heavy when they’re actually loaded.”

Priceless.

Personally, I like..no, love….gun bunnies. But, thats assuming they really know their guns and aren’t just using them as props for duck-lip InstaTwitterBook posts. And, I suppose, that some women would really resent gun bunnies for perpetuating the objectification of women in shooting sports but if there’s any merit to that…well..blame the bunny, she’s the one making the videos. Us guys…we just watch ’em.

Personally, I could watch hot gun chicks all day. But, apparently there is a Gun Bunny Rehab. Good girls make other good girls, but I guess sometimes gun bunnies unmake other gun bunnies. Still..funny stuff.

Sticker shock

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You know, the problem with living out of your freezer for months at a time is that when you ultimately do head down to the supermarket to grab some dead animal flesh you are shocked at the price because you’ve not had to be aware of pricing for the last several months.

Even at the grocery places that traditionally have been the least expensive it was still, to me, outrageous what the prices on beef was.

Chicken even took a hit….Winco had been selling boneless skinless chicken breast at 1.98/#. Then a couple weeks ago there was a note limiting purchase to four trays of meat. Then last week they were completely out. And then when I was in there today…it was back…at $2.18/#…almost a 10% increase. Hmmm.

Pork loin roasts have now become my ‘go to’ for animal protein since it’s the least expensive of the meats I usually buy.

But, geez Ruiz, 85/15 at $5.50? 93/7 at almost $7? Owie. I need to keep my eyes open for deals on meats like I do for deals on ammo.

Back the truck up..Pt. II

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Oh merciful Crom….my lower back is barkin’ at me tonight. Why? Because I don’t have enough trusted guy friends to help me load 60 ammo cans of belted .30 and .50 ammo into my truck, take them to my house, and then unload them. Owwwww.

12,000 rounds of belted ammo. Ball, tracer, and AP.

The irony? I don’t even own a .50 BMG or .30-06 at the moment. But..when opportunity knocks, get a forklift.

Some goes into Deep Sleep, the rest…well…capitalism is a beautiful thing.