Seen it before, pal. Pull up a chair, younguns, an I’ll tell you about the Great Primer Scare and the 1994 buying frenzy and how this current scenario compares.
Back in the late 80′s, early 90′s there was a rumour going around that the Clintonistas were going to mandate that all primers would degrade to the point of being inert within a set amount of time (usually six months). The idea behind this was that us evil right-wingers and gun nuts (or, as I prefer, ‘Ballistic-Americans’) wouldnt be able to stockpile ammo for our guns since in six months it would be useless. This sort of thing certainly sounded like something Slick Willie would pull…after all, this was the time of Janet Reno, Waco, and some pretty heavy-handed federal policing. Folks naturally started stocking up on primers…and it became a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy: you stocked up on primers against there not being any more and everyone else started to do the same. As a result, primers became scarce which validated peoples fears and made them buy more primers.
Eventually, people came to their senses. At the time, the technology wasnt there to make a primer that would go inert at six months without possibly going inert alot sooner or alot later. It was like trying to make an ice cube that would melt to nothingness at a precise moment.
I know people who, even today, have thousands and thousands of primers stockpiled after that incident ‘just in case’ something like that happens again. I see one of ‘em in the mirror every day.
In 1994 the Assualt Weapons ban came up and your $5 surplus AR mags suddenly commanded about five or ten times that. Any new magazine had to hold only ten rounds and alot of manufacturers played it safe and made them so theyd only hold nine since a guy with strong thumbs might be able to squeeze in an extra and get the manufacturer in trouble with Reno & Co. Again, people started stocking up and AR’s, AK’s and all that cool stuff was flying off the shelf. I have one buddy who, having missed the boat, had to take the last AR left in the shop…one of those ‘commemorative’ models with silver plating and lettering in wierd places. Looks pimptacular but it is an AR and at least he had one. I do give him a hard time about his ‘pimp gun’ though.
Magazines that held more than 10 rounds skyrocketed in value. Those capacious Glock mags that hold 30 rounds of 9mm would go for $100. A BetaMag could go as high as $700. And if you had something really funky that took mags that were already expensive (HK, Steyr, Valmet, etc.) you were gonna be forking out big bucks. Into this mix came new guns, like the SR-25, AR10 clones etc. that, since they were made after the ban, never even had a factory 10+ mag until 2004.
Today, its a familiar story with some different overtones. Folks are buying guns and mags like they’re going out of style…no doubt about it. But theyre also stocking up on ammo…not a box or ten like you’d think. We’re talking about guys walking out of gun shows with hand trucks loaded down with outrageously priced ammo…prices that two years ago would have made you laugh in the vendors face and say “Yeah, right!”.
The biggest differences I’ve seen compared to the Great Primer Scare, the ’94 Ban. the Y2K Panic and even the earlier ’86 Executive Order banning imports are:
- Quantity – Ive been involved in this sort of thing for twenty years and I have never seen people unblinkingly drop as much money on guns, mags and components as I have lately. People don’t bat an eye at spending hundreds or thousands of dollars at a pop because they know that if they dont buy it that moment someone else will be there right behind them to buy it.
- Reloading components – primers and powder always start flying out the door. Theyre consumables with almost no DIY alternative. Bullets can be made at home if you have to but making your own smokelss powder and primers is practically impossible. Although there was a definite increase in past panics they were nothing comapred to this current one. I have called vendors who normally have thousands of varieties of brass and bullets and they can tell me everything they have in inventory in one breath. Makes you wonder why the even come in and turn the lights on.
- Reloading equipment – This is the biggest departure from previous panics. Good luck finding an RCBS set of .223, .308, 9mm, .357 or .45 ACP dies at the local shop. These are durable goods…things that will last a lifetime….and people are stocking up on them too. I called RCBS to order a bullet mould out of their Special List. Previously the voice on the end says “You are caller number…” and usually its caller three or four if theres a wait…often theres no wait. Last time I called I was caller #39 in queue. When I finally got to talk to a human it was moot – they were out of everything I wanted. I need 24 sets of various caliber dies. I got 5 and had to get that from three different vendors. That, my friends, is people thinking for the long haul.
- Survivalist subsets – more and more of the people buying guns and ammo in huge quantities are also doing waht can only be described as ‘gearing up’ for…something. In addition to the guns, ammo, components and reloading gear theyre buying freeze dried food, water storage, solar panels, etc. The natives are restless.
So, historically, we are in uncharted waters on this one. In this economy, where folks may not have a job in a few weeks, people are still willing to take the plunge and buy five AR’s, or a case of 100 magazines, or 20,000 primers, or five cases of ammo. That shows that they genuinely believe, right or wrong, that what theyre buying won’t be available in the future.
Having had a front row seat for the ten years of the 1994 AW ban I made bloody sure that I wouldnt get caught when (not if) they tried that stunt again. As a result, I’m not paying $1500 for AR’s, $25 for mags, or $40 for a case of primers.
Anyway, its going to be a bumpy ride. In a few years maybe we’ll all be buying huge caches of discounted components at yard sales. Or maybe we’ll be paying $2 per round for South African .308. If the current panic buying is anything to go by, the latter looks more likely than the former.
You can almost feel the tension in the air down here. All the talk about secession, the economy, the national debt, complaints about Obama. It is a palpable feeling of change around the corner, and I don’t think it is the kind of change those folks had in mind when they voted last year.
I wanted to comment, but the magnitude of the whole thing takes my breath away.
I rushed out and bought that new .308 bolt rifle that I had been putting off buying.
Not knowing that an ammo shortage was also occurring, I only bought one box of 20 rounds with it. Now I can’t locate any more locally.
You have told it exactly like it is.
I think a lot of people sold off investments in the stock market and are using that money to buy stuff. The stock market is questionable at best right now, and people that pulled their money out are looking for a place to put it. After you pay off your house and car, then what do you do with the rest?
I was there in 1994 and this does seem worse. I think the internet has fueled it. Seeing your local Walmart low on ammo and seeing many people across the country complain about their local stores being low on ammo are two different things. When people realize that they might be facing a national shortage instead of a local shortage it scares them.
CZ:
Your observations are spot on. It may be years before manufacturers catch up with demand, and by then, the legislative landscape may have shifted. We may see substantially higher taxes on guns, gun parts, ammo, and reloading components. Never underestimate the ability of politicians to serve themselves a big slice of pie, whenever they see a prosperous market.
In my estimation, the greatest gains will be in prices for full capacity (11+ round) magazines. There is a very high likelihood of a ban. There will still be guns made hat can accept full capacity magazines, but only neutered 10 round magazines will be legal to manufacture. The law of supply and demand dictates that magazines will rise. It will be 1994 all over agin, but this time WITHOUT a 10 year “Sunset” clause. So it not unrealistic to expect a 33 round Glock magazine selling for $200 in just a few years.
Whether or not manufacturers will be able to ‘catch up’ before legislation renders their actions moot is a Very Big Deal. I ordered an AR for a fella a month ago and the guys at Stag said we’d see it in September. The customer shrugged and said ‘fine, it’ll be like a Christmas surprise when it arrives’…he wasn’t thinking that by September, if his rifle is ready, he may not be allowed to own it by then. Thats why I tell people that even though it may sting, buy now….then at least they have it versus a promise to receive it later when they may be legally prohibited from owning it.
I think a lot of people sold off investments in the stock market and are using that money to buy stuff.
That’s me to a “T”. Bernanke took half my retirement, now I’m liquidating the other half to get my family ready for the collapse.
Made In Montana could take a whole new meaning when it comes to firearms. At least some of the lawmakers in Helena have some common sense and the best interest of Montana at heart. Glad that I was born in Montana.
It will be really interesting to see if the panic buying is enhanced by an armed uprising somewhere in the US. If that occurs anf if by chance that it ends up having a domino effect, you will see another wave of panic buying that you have never experienced. Not only for firearms, ammo, but also for food, clothes, shoes, personal hygiene products, etc. Better get ready just in case.
If you need some legal custom firearm parts made, there is a great machine shop in Kila, Montana. They have many years experience manufacturing custom parts of all kinds. They are called Kila Hill Manufacturing. Phone 406-756-9368. Ask for Harry.
As one of those people who came to gun buying maturity during the 1994-2004 AWB I have seen how it limits you ability to get what you want. I have also made preparations to be in a reasonably tolerable place if/ when it happens.
I predict that mags will see the biggest increases in prices. Of those non widely used military spec ones will rise the most. The price of AR mags went up but the price of Glock mags went up a lot.
One big difference between now and then is, people are saying when not if. The death of the dollar is A given. People do not think they are perparing for an event that is years away, but months.
I for one think the American Socialist Party will have a VERY hard time passing anti-2nd ammendment legislation. It’s not that they lack the will, but enough of their own have seats that would be gone if they voted for restrictions. And I see the Republicans making big gains in 2010. I might be one of the few optimists out there. Then again, I can have that luxury, as I did my purchasing early enough to be set for now. Of course there’s more I’d like to buy, but I’ll wait untill some of this craziness dies down.
I think the 1994 ban made Americans wake up and appreciate their rights. And if thousands and thousands of people end up as gun owners because of the current crisis, that is a positive in my book.
I hope the only uprising ever in this country is at the ballot box. An armed uprising would be a bad thing for this country. Nothing good will come out of an armed uprising, but alot of dead people. The Constitution under Article I section 8 does provides for situtation like this by allowing the congress to authorize the military to suppress Insurrections. So anyone thinking that the military will violate their oath to defend and preserve the Constitution may want to think twice before firing on that M1A2 tank. The U.S. military knows how to fight insurrections. Its the congress that does not know how to. The military will have a Constitutional duty to deal with any uprising. Just in case anyone thinks that the Posse Comitatus Act or the Insurrection Act of 1807 prohibites this may want to read them again, these were amended in 2006 but even without the amendments they only delayed the response from the federal government not preventing it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act
Oh, lets not forget those Predator drones will be flying around everywhere waiting to strike. Rememebr if there ever was an uprising the media would be censored firsr. No independant media means no one complaining about a Predator drone sriking some remote ranch in Idaho killing some guy who writes the same book over 3 times and his family. So before we get crazy we need to remember as long as we have the right to vote there is always hope for this country. When they take that away, well all bets are off then.
One other thing. Lets not forget our children. I have 3 kids, two boys, and one daughter. We need to train the kids to use firearms . They need to be taught firearms safety as well. It may be wise to spend a few bucks and purchase some good basic firearms to give to them at a later date. There are still some good deals out there for some solid rifles. I was able to purchase 3 brand new Stevens 200s in 270, 7mm Mag, 300 Win Mag calibers for just under $300.00 each. They are not high tech assault rifles by any means, but they are tough, accurate firearms that can be used for hunting, recreation, and defense with ease. Good basic security. I prefer mil caliber firearms, such as 223, 308, 30-06, 300 Win Mag, but there are enough 7mm mag and 270 rifles out there that there should not be a problem to obtain the ammo.
I also think that is important to teach them the importants of the US Constitution.
I have to agree with Carlos U. I work in politics in DC and the 111th Congress’ gun votes were determined when the Senate voted 62-36 on 26 Feb 09 to allow the amendment to the DC vote bill repealing almost all of the District’s gun laws.
Those 62 votes are comprised of hard-core 2Aers, apathetic Rs who know where their bread is buttered, and a minority of Senate Ds from rural states who are scared s#itless that if they vote the wrong way on the 2A in any way, they will get pilloried at the polls in ’10 and ’12.
And they are right.
So they will not change their vote for the next two years. So the 2A and the Republic are safe until the general election in November ’10.
Of course, that won’t stop the panic buying sucking up all the ammo in the nation. That frenzy being driven by political ignorance (big surprise), and more ominously, fear of our nation’s economic and political future.
I have plenty of guns and ammo, but I’m still buying when I find deals. It’s a moral point. Every time those @#$holes in Washington open their fat yaps, I buy another gun and another grand of ammo, because I can afford to. I’m going to cram it down their political throats until they choke, and I invite every patriotic American to join me. And let’s see them try to argue “Common use” when there are a hundred million ARs out there.
The court of public opinion matters when it speaks loudly enough.
We haven’t lost our (3rdMan) right to vote, but we did lose the last election to voter fraud. And it’ll be a lot worse next year, when the illegals are encouraged to vote by lax ID laws and new amnesty legislation.
Also, you’re forgetting who’s taking the CENSUS this time. It’s being directly supervised by the White House for some reason. Must not be enough monkeys being counted, if you let the legit people do it.
Also, you’re forgetting ACORN and the “Americorps” project that just got signed into law yesterday and will hire 250,000 “community organizers” under the guise of community service.
Also you’re forgetting the “director of Homeland Security”, who’s now trying to kill the idea of a national ID, so that more mutts can skulk across our borders to vote for the niqqer-in-chief again in 2012.
Anyone else itching to do an ammo run to Walmart? I get this way every time I think about that chocolate chavez shooting hoops off the White House walls.
I am with Michael Z on this one. I have been blessed to afford whatever I really want. Though I need nothing, I buy whenever I can.
I figure some of my arsenal can be used by my fellow God fearing, bible toting, gun clutching Patriots in a SHTF situation.
To be sure, these new additions are a better invstment than any paper assets I have.
I guess it’s time to dig that ‘plausible deniability hole.’ (Thanks for the advice JWR.)
Seeing JWR & TOR both here makes me feel like I’m in good company. Now if only Tam would opine as well…
Locally I’ve had luck finding ammo at Dicks, notsomuch at WallyWorld. Just my $2, adjusted for inflation.
Re, 3rdman
“remote ranch in Idaho killing some guy who writes the same book over 3 times and his family. ”
I don’t think that it is the rancher in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota etc. that is going to be too involved. His main rifle is probably his Grandads Win 70, or a similar rifle. The ranchers and farmers would get pretty excited if you came to steal their cow, John Deere tractor, or 4×4 quad. Otherwise they are pretty content.
I don’t think that they are the ones stocking up on assault rifles, Saiga close combat shotguns etc. Give him a Martin Guitar, a decent price for his calves, children who respect him , and he is pretty happy.
If it does come to uprisings it is the urban ones that will probably be the worst.
Not only will the urbanites be taking their anger out on the Government, but also each other. Race against race, trying to right the percieved wrongs. Trouble makers looking to make trouble. Anarchists looking to exploit a violent situation. Not pretty.
Bob,
Just like the Dems claimed GWB did in 2000. You lost all credibilty with your racist comments. Your statements are even in conflict. You support a national ID, come on that is something the left would love to have not someone on the right. The right believes this should be handle at the State level. I think you are as Rush would say a “seminar caller”, but in this case a “seminar blogger”. As I have posted here before I think Obama is the same as Jimmy Carter, and we must have another Carter before we can have another Ronald Reagan. CZ has even picked up on it and refers to Obama as Carter II. I’m not sure why CZ even posted your racist comments, but hey its his blog.
Sorry had to leave for a few
To continue I did not vote for Obama because I do not share his political view not because he is black unlike you Bob who make it about race. I would be willing to bet this is also the position of CZ as I have seen nothing on his blog to indicate otherwise. Montana for example has some great Senator who happen to be conservitive Democrats. The Northeastern states have some Republicans that just suck because they are liberals. So its not the person its their beliefs. So please respect the Office of the President even if you do not like him. Also please go spead your hate somewhere else. Just my 2cents!!
Edwin R
Hello I was talking about JWR. If you still do not get it click on the name of the forth person on this post. haha
hey CZ,
just a note, in the last 5 months I’ve watched each item become unavailable, first AR’s then AK’s ,then 223 ,308, 762×39, some items are sent to the store 3 or 4 boxes @ a time,and only then because we pay our distributors quickly, a little news flash, the supply is getting tighter every week, and it’s not going to change soon. Get what you can when you can.